UFC Vegas 109 predictions, odds, full-card preview: Will Anthony Hernandez extend his lengthy winning streak?

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a day ago

There's nothing in MMA quite like back-to-back weekends of UFC Fight Night events at the UFC APEX facility. What could be more fitting than a middleweight contender bout to headline the UFC Vegas 109 festivities?
Anthony Hernandez is on one of the most under-the-radar rolls in all of MMA, as he'll look to extend his seven-fight winning streak against Roman Dolidze in Saturday night's main event. Dolidze is also on a nice stretch himself, with a three-fight string of success. The winner almost feels destined for a dance with fellow surging contender Reinier de Ridder after his recent win over Robert Whittaker. It's a compelling mix of madness atop the middleweight division, which often yields the most entertaining outcomes.
UFC Vegas 109 edges out the overall lineup from last week's pit stop, thanks to slightly higher stakes in some of the matchups. But again, these shows are pit stops of the highest order before the real goods get delivered at UFC 319 in Chicago next weekend.
👑 UFC Vegas 109's lineup Crown grade: F+👑
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
185 pounds: Roman Dolidze (+240) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-300)
There's a way to describe this matchup other than being incredibly "middleweight." But whatever that alternate description may be, it probably isn't as accurate as the obvious.
Hernandez has become, in a way, the division's new Demian Maia. Brendan Allen put up a good fight in the pair's rematch in Seattle last February, but Hernandez ultimately stayed one step ahead, as he does with all of his opponents on the ground. On the feet, he's improving each fight, and has reached a point where he can hang with anyone en route to executing his game plan of dominating on the ground.
The Georgian Dolidze has continued to refine his already well-rounded skillset in recent years. After a brief skid with losses to Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov, he's tightened up his defensive deficiencies to avenge the Vettori loss, while adding Kevin Holland and Anthony Smith to the resume. Those wins were what they were though, and a far cry from how impressive Hernandez has been on his stretch of success.
Dolidze should put up a good fight and fend off Hernandez in the early going, but he'll get worn out like the rest of Hernandez's foes. "Fluffy" just doesn't stop. Unless Dolidze can physically hold Hernandez down for long periods, he's going to have his work cut out for him. I just can't see it happening, and expect this to be a sloggy grapplefest that results in another win for Hernandez.
Pick: Hernandez
135 pounds: Steve Erceg (-600) vs. Ode' Osborne (+425)
Not once have I ever imagined breaking down an Ode Osborne co-main event. Yet here we are.
Although this bantamweight tilt is circumstantial, Steve Erceg putting the flyweight division behind him after a trio of setbacks would be an interesting prospect. His three-fight skid started with his surprise title shot in May 2024. The Australian is still a notably high-quality fighter at 125 pounds; he just got thrown to the deep end relatively quickly in his UFC run, which set him up to sink or swim.
"Astro Boy" became notorious for his knockout power and overall sharp boxing acumen at flyweight. Erceg already had an edge everywhere on Osborne, aside from maybe speed, so with the extra weight packed on and the short-notice factor, this should be a nice rebound highlight for him.
Pick: Erceg
115 pounds: Iasmin Lucindo (-185) vs. Angela Hill (+150)
For some reason, I swore these two had already fought before.
Angela Hill seemingly can't stop, won't stop, even at age 40. "Overkill" has become the gatekeeper of all gatekeepers at strawweight, falling short only to about every top contender you can think of.
Like, literally, that's not even an exaggeration.
Outside of that laundry list, Hill will get the job done, even if by the slimmest of margins. This matchup presents another stiff test for the still-young Iasmin Lucindo, who has already faced great challenges in Marina Rodriguez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Although she fell short to one-time title challenger Amanda Lemos in her last fight, Lucindo is as clear a future divisional staple as any right now.
Hill's speedy combinations and great movement are going to give Lucindo fits, but expect the counters and overall damage Lucindo delivers to be more impactful. The fight should keep a high pace and be fun while it lasts.
Pick: Lucindo
145 pounds: Andre Fili (+190) vs. Christian Rodriguez (-235)
Christian Rodriguez has been the ultimate prospect-spoiler thus far in his UFC run, turning back Raul Rosas Jr., Cameron Saaiman and Austin Bashi. Unfortunately for him, he's running into the hot-and-cold vet, Andre Fili.
Why is that unfortunate? Well, because Fili has alternated wins and losses in his last seven appearances, with a loss in his last fight against Melquizael Costa, who also last fought and beat Rodriguez. The vets and more experienced fighters like Julian Erosa and Costa have proven to be trouble for Rodriguez, making Fili no different. Unless the seasoned slugger's chin has completely faded, he'll find a way to pull this one off.
Pick: Fili
135 pounds: Miles Johns (+240) vs. Jean Matsumoto (-300)
The more we delve into UFC Vegas 109, the more obvious it becomes that this is "UFC Seattle: The Sequel."
Jean Matsumoto suffered his first career loss to Rob Font at the Pacific Northwest event earlier this year, proving perhaps it was too much, too soon for a leap of such gravity. With the loss, Matsumoto slides back down the totem pole to a very winnable matchup against Miles Johns. That's not to say Johns isn't a capable competitor in his own right. His trajectory has simply progressed at a significantly slower pace.
The Brazilian's speed and overall dynamic striking abilities and ground game should be enough to get past Johns, who will hope to replicate the seasoned Font's performance from February.
Pick: Matsumoto
185 pounds: Eryk Anders (+400) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (-550)
If the main event wasn't "middleweight" enough, you're in luck because this fight opens the main card.
For some reason, like Lucindo vs. Hill, this also feels like a fight that's already happened. Christian Leroy Duncan can regain some momentum by halting Eryk Anders, who retired Chris Weidman his last time out in December 2024. You read that right. Anders is on his first winnng streak since 2019.
Anders is going to find himself at a strong disadvantage against the explosive and rangy kickboxer. What he lacks in speed at age 38, he makes up for with grit and determination to drag his opponents into deep water. That's a big ask for what "CLD" brings to the table, and unless Anders pulls out an Arman Petrosyan-type performance to stifle the Brit, the oddsmakers got those moneylines correct.
Pick: Leroy Duncan
Preliminary Notes
A more missable batch of prelims doesn't exi-...
Elijah Smith is a prospect very much worth keeping a close eye on, as he earns this week's biggest favorite label. Other than that, Priscila Cachoeira is still on the UFC roster, which means someone behind the scenes just loves to watch the world burn.
Quick picks:
Julius Walker (-650) def. Raffael Cerqueira (+475)
Elijah Smith (-750) def. Toshiomi Kazama (+525)
Joselyne Edwards (-375) def. Priscila Cachoeira (+300)
Uros Medic (-450) def. Gilbert Urbina (+350)
Julija Stoliarenko (+350) def. Gabriella Fernandes (-450)
Eric McConico (+135) def. Cody Brundage (-160)