After 2024 wipeout, Democrats shadow 2028 primary has begun

The Herald Scotland

2 days ago

But the 60-year-old can't help and leave bread crumbs out for supporters, such as when she hinted in her announcement that she will be "sharing more details in the months ahead" about her future.
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"That's leaving more than the door ajar, that's pushing the door wide open," Michael Feldman, a former senior adviser to Vice President Al Gore, told USA TODAY. "I understand the optionality that creates for her: she shut a door, she's opening another. And by the way, nobody wants to foreclose their options and their opportunity."
'A contested primary' ahead
If Harris does enter the fray for a third try at the presidency it will certainly stir the 2028 pot.
She brings the highest name ID of any suspected contender and an even broader donor network with established relationships to boot. But campaign experts and strategists warn that no one should expect a red carpet to the nomination this time around.
"There will be a contested primary," Feldman said. "There will be a large field of people who feel like it's their time and it's their moment."
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As the Democratic reboot continues, White House hopefuls such as Harris are tiptoeing into an earlier than usual shadow campaign that political observers say they believe will be among the party's most consequential presidential primaries in decades.
"More is riding on this pre-primary race than in most years because the party's brand is in the toilet," said Matthew Dallek, a historian and professor of political management at George Washington University.
But Democrats must be cautious about trotting too far to the left based on the outcome of a single or handful of recent elections, some strategists warn. Vice President JD Vance, thought by many to be next in line to inherit the MAGA mantle for populist-minded conservatives, is one of the more effective national communicators for Republicans with sharpened skills as Trump's attack dog. He and other potential GOP figures are ready to dig Democrats a deeper hole.
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While voting won't commence in the next White House race for 17 more months, that's not stopping a number of sitting governors, senators and other aspiring future Democratic presidents to be making pilgrimages to early voting states. They're also penning memoirs, doing marathon podcast interviews, squirreling away campaign cash and outlining their stances on topics that will be relevant to the progressive base, moderates and eventually independent voters down the line.
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All of the preliminary jockeying from such a diverse and crowded unofficial field suggests a resilience among rank-and-file Democrats despite abysmal approval ratings that haven't been this low among voters since 1990.
"The only way to begin to improve it is through whoever the next presidential nominee will be," Dallek said "The stakes, in that sense, are higher. It's not just the presidency. It's not just the nomination. There's a sense among Democrats that they need to do this, and there's a big debate."
Raising brands and saving campaign cash
Several 2028 hopefuls have already begun to make strategic moves to keep their name in the mix with the party faithful.
About a dozen have visited or have plans to make stops in the early primary states, such as Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, 60, who in April caught attention for delivering a searing speech in New Hampshire aimed at 'do-nothing' Democrats.
Sen. Ruben Gallego, 45, of Arizona, whose name has lately shot up on the rumored list of White House candidates, is set to attend two events in the Granite State later this month too, further fueling speculation that he's a possible contender.
"I'll be on the ground in New Hampshire... taking on the GOP's billionaire agenda and standing up for working families," Gallego, who was elected to the Senate last fall, said in a July 29 post on X.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, 57, trekked through rural South Carolina in July. He was followed by Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, 47, who talked up flipping red states with union leaders and later Rep. Ro Khanna, 48, D-Calif., who made a four-day tour featuring town halls and visits to Black churches.
Former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, 43, may claim he "isn't running for anything" but his May trip to Iowa for a veterans-focused forum focused heavily on existential questions facing Democrats and the country.
Buttigieg shot to fame running for president in 2020 as the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and he has been raising his national brand through a podcast tour. Other potential contenders are also taking the podcast route, including Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, 46, who recently lamented how Democrats "gave up on" entire swaths of the country during a July 29 sit-down chat on former DNC chair Jaime Harrison's "At Our Table."
"I'm very much am a person of action, and I think as a party we've got to stop being the party of 'no and slow' and start being the party of 'yes and now,'" said Moore, whose name is tossed around despite saying he isn't running for president.
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Nina Smith, a Democratic strategist who worked on Buttigieg's 2020 presidential campaign, said these early moves serve the candidates by creating and maintaining local connections. They also lend to rebuilding the party's brand organically through the excitement of a nominee.
"There's some juice, there's some fire, from the perspective of people who want to step up and lead and be the standard bearer for our party," Smith said. "We're kind of spoiled for choices in that regard. That's a good thing."
Such an elongated presidential campaign can exhaust resources as much as voters, which may explain why notable 2028 contenders are storing up massive cash reserves.
Khanna, whose California district is located in the heart of Silicon Valley, had roughly $14.2 million in his campaign coffers at the end of June, according to the latest Federal Election Commission report.
Other congressional Democrats on the 2028 list who can legally transfer their funds to a presidential campaign include Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., 35, who had a record-breaking first quarter haul this year and had about $9.8 million in the bank. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., 51, a media maven with possible White House aspirations, holds approximately $10.2 million in his accounts.
Big debates on Trump, affordability and Gaza lie ahead
One feature of the pre-primary jockeying that is coming into focus is the major differences within the Democratic ranks, such as how best to oppose the Trump administration's bulldozing agenda.
An example of that larger debate was on display on Capitol Hill this past week when Sen. Cory Booker, D-NJ, a rumored 2028 contender, blasted his fellow party members for supporting a bundle of proposals backed by the GOP administration that would increase resources and funding to police departments and officers.
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"This, to me, is the problem with Democrats in America right now is we're willing to be complicit to Donald Trump to let this pass through when we have all the leverage right now," said Booker, 56, who ran a short-lived 2020 presidential campaign and has garnered renewed interest since delivering a record-breaking Senate speech.
Booker's comment outraged Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., 65, another prospective and former 2020 White House contender, who needled him for missing a committee hearing on the bipartisan package.
There are other issues for Democrats to sort out as well, such as navigating the rising populism from the left over cost of living concerns that helped propel Zohran Mamdani's primary win in the New York City mayor's race.
Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, 65, a centrist-aligned Democrat who is being urged to run by more moderate voices, has cautioned against Democrats embracing the 33-year-old New Yorker who is hoping Big Apple voters will pick him this November to lead the nation's largest city.
"Recognizing that the American dream is unaffordable and inaccessible and that working hard no longer guarantees getting ahead isn't a socialist observation; it's clear to people of all political stripes," Emanuel said in a June 26 op-ed to the Wall Street Journal.
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"Affordable healthcare, lifetime retirement security and affordable community college are as American as apple pie, but they won't be realized by consulting the Democratic Socialists of America's playbook," added Emanuel, who most recently served as Biden's U.S. ambassador to Japan and previously was an Illinois congressman and White House chief of staff to then-President Barack Obama.
Feldman, the former Gore advisor, said there's a lot of energy among the progressive wing of the party that can't be dismissed, but he questions if someone such as Mamdani could be competitive in a national general election.
"My argument would be, no, he couldn't be," Feldman said. "So, you know, there'll be an argument between the various factions in the Democratic Party about what policies we want to present to the American people, and can you harness the energy in the electorate."
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Other Democratic thinkers agree these sort of sparring matches are inevitable but that they should be looked at more optimistically in the 2028 context given the presidential field is expected to include uber-progressives, centrists and even moderately conservative.
"It's gonna be messy and personal, and it's going to feel bad sometimes in the process, but I think it's going to help us shape as a party, what we believe," Amanda Litman, a former Obama 2012 and Hillary Clinton 2016 campaign staffer who co-founded Run for Something, a progressive group that supports candidates for public office, told USA TODAY.
Progressives versus everyone else?
Every potential 2028 contender will have to talk about a voter's lived experiences and connect with them on the issues that matter most, according to various Democrats who spoke with USA TODAY. But they will also have to evolve with the progressive base on issues the mainstream party has been fearful to embrace.
Former Rep. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y., who lost his reelection bid last year, is touting new polling by Data for Progress released in late July that shows of New York City primary voters strongly sympathize with Palestinians.
The survey found support for Palestinian rights fueled much of Mamdani's support, including 78% of respondents who said Israel is committing genocide in the region and another 79% who said they support restricting weapons to the U.S. ally.
Bowman, who was opposed heavily by pro-Israel groups, pointed out that Khanna stood up early as one of the first members of Congress to call for a cease-fire during the Biden era, saying his former colleague should get "a lot of credit for that."
As the 2028 field takes shape, Bowman argued that the party cannot be seen as titling the scales against more left-leaning contenders. He also warned the possible presidential contenders that they should not ignore the shifting tides that populist-minded progressives are causing, especially amid widespread reports of starvation in Gaza.
"I expect a robust primary debate," Bowman told USA TODAY. "And I hope that ideas rule the day over special interests and politics where we can see the rise of an authentic, historic leadership."