Russia redraws India's oil map, but Middle East holds ground
Supplies from Iraq and Saudi are down barely 5 per cent since 2021, the year before the Ukraine war began, while those from the UAE are up 3 per cent , according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
In contrast, imports from smaller or distant suppliers have been hit. Supplies from the US are down by a third, while those from Nigeria and Kuwait have halved. Shipments from Oman and Mexico have fallen more than 80 per cent .
In 2021, Russia supplied just about 100,000 barrels a day (b/d) of India's four million b/d imports, far behind Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the US, Nigeria, Kuwait and others, Vortexa data show.
As the war disrupted global trade routes, Russian crude began flooding into India. By 2022, it had become India's third-largest supplier behind Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
A year later, Russia overtook both, supplying 1.76 million b/d — more than the combined shipments from Saudi and Iraq. In 2025, Russia continues to top the chart, averaging about 1.7 million b/d.
Even so, India's traditional Middle East suppliers have been resilient. In 2025, Iraq's supplies have averaged 898,000 b/d, Saudi Arabia's 640,000 b/d, and the UAE's 448,000 b/d. Compared with 2021, volumes from Iraq and Saudi are down barely 5 per cent , while those from the UAE are up 3 per cent .
Russian oil, bought mostly on the spot market at a discount, mainly displaced costlier or more distant cargoes from Africa and the Americas.
In 2025, US supplies have averaged 271,000 b/d, Nigeria 151,000 b/d, Kuwait 131,000 b/d, Oman 20,000 b/d and Mexico 24,000 b/d. Flows from Colombia, Ecuador, Gabon and Congo have also declined.
Executives say Indian refiners consider term contracts with major Middle East producers vital for energy security. These contracts were largely retained, with refiners trimming only optional cargoes.
Some suppliers, particularly Iraq, offered competitive terms to defend market share as Russian oil surged, they said.
Now, as India looks to partly scale back Russian purchases under mounting US pressure, those sidelined suppliers may regain relevance, executives said.
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