2 Large Regional Bank Stocks That Could Get Acquired During the Trump Administration

Globe and Mail

2 days ago

The banking industry is ripe for consolidation. Although there were more than 4,500 banks in the U.S., as of last year, four, in particular, collectively control trillions in assets: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. While smaller banks will keep gobbling each other up and merging to obtain scale, this could also take place in the large regional banking market, among banks with $75 billion to $700 billion in assets.
Regulators under President Donald Trump's administration have given the sector the green light for mergers and acquisitions, a stance that wasn't embraced under former President Joe Biden's administration. If the large regional banks truly want to compete against the big four, they're going to have to get bigger. Acquisition candidates typically can command a nice premium for shareholders.
Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »
Here are two banks that could get acquired during the next four years.
1. Comerica: Tough size, attractive markets
At the end of the first quarter of 2025, Comerica (NYSE: CMA) had about $78 billion in assets and operates in attractive U.S. banking markets like Texas and states in the fast-growing Southeast of the U.S. This is an awkward size for a regional bank these days, because it is too big to be a local bank, but not nearly big enough to compete with the bigger players.
Furthermore, $100 billion has previously been a battleground for banking regulators under various administrations when thinking about the size threshold they consider too big to fail -- meaning they're so crucial to the financial system that regulators will bail them out if they are at risk of failing. As such, investors frequently have to reassess regulations and capital requirements for banks around this size.
Last year, Comerica announced it will not be extending a banking relationship with the U.S. Treasury Department that provided it with $3 billion in noninterest-bearing deposits, which is essentially a free funding source, although the agreement will continue for the next few years before the transition, which could partly explain its low valuation relative to peers.
When looking at acquisitions, it's important to look at a bank's price-to-tangible book value (TBV), which shows its price relative to its tangible equity, or what the bank might be worth if it were liquidated. The higher a bank's price-to-TBV, the more likely it is to be a buyer because its stock currency is more valuable, so it could buy banks with smaller price-to-TBVs and see less dilution in an all-stock or part-stock deal.
Here is the price-to-TBV of several major U.S. regional banks.
CMA Price to Tangible Book Value data by YCharts
Now, just because Comerica sits at the bottom of the group doesn't mean it will automatically be acquired. However, it makes an acquisition more palatable for a buyer. At the end of the day, banks are sold and not bought, meaning Comerica is going to have to raise its hand if it wants to sell.
Interestingly, though, Chief Executive Officer Curtis Farmer is 62 and has a change-in-control (CIC) agreement with the bank that would earn him a payout of more than $35 million in the event that the bank changes hands, among other potential benefits that could be lucrative.
2. KeyCorp: Recently sold minority stake
KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) is another bank that could be gone by the time the Trump administration ends. As you can see in the chart, the bank also falls lower in the pack in terms of price-to-TBV.
However, KeyCorp could be attractive, due to its strong capital light, fee-based businesses, including investment banking and trust. Any bank that wants to compete with the big four needs to bulk up in investment banking, and acquiring KeyCorp would be a step in that direction.
Additionally, KeyCorp last year sold a 14.9% stake to the Canadian-based lender Scotiabank for $2.8 billion in order to obtain more capital flexibility. This helped it restructure its bond portfolio, which fell underwater amid the higher-interest rate environment during the past few years.
The agreement with Scotiabank only allows it to increase its stake in KeyCorp to 19.9% for the next five years, although some analysts have speculated on whether a full acquisition could be in Scotiabank's future.
Still, I don't believe this prevents another bank from buying KeyCorp if the bank were to be interested in selling. KeyCorp's CEO Chris Gorman is 64 and also stands to make a lot of money if the bank is acquired, with a CIC agreement that would pay out close to $35.7 million.
Should you invest $1,000 in Comerica right now?
Before you buy stock in Comerica, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Comerica wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $638,985!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $853,108!*
Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor 's total average return is978% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to171%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025
Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services, and U.S. Bancorp. The Motley Fool recommends Bank Of Nova Scotia and Regions Financial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.