Energy, investments, geopolitics: Why China's Israel-Iran mediation push is about more than peace

CNA

9 hours ago

BEIJING/SINGAPORE: China is positioning itself as a mediator in the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran - but analysts say its diplomatic overtures are as much about shielding national interests as they are about regional peace.
While Beijing publicly calls for calm, analysts say factors like energy dependence, strategic ties with Iran, geopolitical rivalry with the United States, and fears of a wider conflict that could undermine its investment and infrastructure footprint, underpin its push for peace.
But despite its deepening economic ties with Tehran and the broader Middle East, observers say China's limited influence over the key players, particularly Israel, makes meaningful intervention an uphill task.
They add that even as Beijing publicly backs Tehran, it is unlikely to risk wading into the conflict to tilt the balance in Iran's favour. Doing so would risk escalating tensions with the United States and undermining China's carefully calibrated position as a neutral actor in the region.
'China would be drawn into a regional conflict with global repercussions, which is surely something Beijing has no appetite for,' said Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer in international politics at the University of Exeter.
'This is a very difficult position for Chinese diplomacy.'
Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a non-partisan US think tank focused on foreign policy and national security issues, said it reveals a larger problem for Beijing.
'Today's crisis and China's seeming inability to have any influence on its outcome spotlights the gap between Beijing's great power rhetoric and its limited reach in the Middle East.'
PLAYING PEACEMAKER - OR NOT?
The conflict erupted on Friday (Jun 13) when Israel launched surprise attacks on targets across Iran. Described by Israel as necessary 'preemptive' strikes to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, the salvo sparked swift retaliation from Tehran, which has consistently denied seeking nuclear arms.
Attacks have continued back and forth since then. More than 200 people have been killed, most of them civilians.
China has joined a growing chorus of international calls for restraint as fears grow that the region could be on the cusp of a broader conflagration.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi held phone calls with his Israeli and Iranian counterparts on Jun 14. He told both men that China was willing to play "a constructive role" in de-escalating the conflict, reported China's foreign ministry.
Chinese President Xi Jinping repeated the refrain in comments reported by state news agency Xinhua on Tuesday, calling for urgent de-escalation.
He added that China 'stands ready to work with all parties to play a constructive role in restoring peace and stability in the Middle East'.
Some reports have focused on the possibility of China playing mediator. The country has in recent years actively positioned itself as a global peacemaker, distinct from US influence.
'China is a neutral party, and can play a very important mediating role,' Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Chinese think tank Center for China and Globalization (CCG), told CNA, highlighting China's 'good' track record in the Middle East and lack of 'historical baggage'.
Beijing brokered a Palestinian unity deal in war-torn Gaza in July 2024. The year before, it brokered a historic reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, mediating the rapprochement alongside Iraq and Oman without direct involvement from the US or Europe.
The latest outreach follows a familiar pattern in Chinese diplomacy, where Beijing seeks to project calm and offer mediation without committing to direct intervention. In past conflicts, including in Syria and Yemen, China issued similar calls but played only a limited follow-up role.
But most of the other analysts CNA spoke to believe China doesn't have sufficient leverage to meaningfully mediate the Israel-Iran conflict.
In particular, it wields 'practically no influence' with Israel, said Jonathan Fulton, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs.
He told CNA that China's stance on the Israel-Palestinian conflict since Oct 7, 2023 - when Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israel - has significantly eroded its diplomatic credibility with Tel Aviv, leaving Beijing with 'very little leverage' in Israeli eyes.
'China's always been very clear that it supports the Palestinians, and in this case, it was very overt. I think the Israelis have come to realise that China doesn't offer any kind of support for them in this situation.'
Ghiselli from the University of Exeter described the Israel-Iran conflict as a war they have 'prepared for decades'.
'True or not, they think they are fighting for their survival. Nothing else matters. Moreover, neither of them is dependent on China in a way that would allow Beijing to force them to stop,' said Ghiselli, who is also head of research for the China-Mediterranean project at the University of Turin.
'China is not like the US, which could just stop the Israeli war machine by withdrawing its support.'
Sun Degang, professor of political science at Fudan University and director of its Center for Middle Eastern Studies, similarly noted that Beijing's mediation efforts hinge on political will from both sides to engage - something that seems to be lacking.
'I don't think Israel is ready to accept China's mediation,' he told CNA. 'It wants to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities and implement regime change in Iran.'
FDD's Singleton said China lacks the trust, intelligence channels, and 'coercive sticks' to influence Israeli or Iranian war planning.
'At best, it can pass messages; it almost certainly cannot broker terms or enforce compliance,' he said, adding that ceasefire mediation only works when both parties want it.
'Right now they don't.'
FACTORS SHAPING BEIJING'S POSITIONING
Willingness to mediate aside, China has also made clear it backs Iran in the conflict.
In the phone calls with his Israeli and Iranian counterparts, Wang Yi expressed as much while calling Israel's behaviour "unacceptable".
Meanwhile, Xi on Tuesday singled out Israel's military actions against Iran as escalating tensions in the Middle East.
'We oppose any actions that infringe upon the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of other countries. Military conflict is not the solution to problems, and rising regional tensions do not align with the common interests of the international community,' he said.
Analysts say that economic and geopolitical factors underpin China's position.
'Beijing's stance is driven by energy dependence, fear of US sanctions, rivalry optics with Washington, and a need to keep Saudi and Emirati doors open,' said FDD's Singleton.
Fudan University's Sun said the willingness of BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states to support multilateral mediation efforts could shape China's approach, referring to these regional groupings that involve several Middle Eastern nations.
But it ultimately depends on how far China is willing to risk a possible failed mediation attempt that could expose the limits of its diplomatic reach and standing as a global peacemaker, he added.
The Atlantic Council's Fulton said China sees Iran as a source of 'cheap oil' and a foil to US ambitions in the Gulf and the broader Middle East. He described the bilateral relationship as 'transactional' and 'deeply asymmetrical'.
According to media reports, China purchases nearly 90 per cent of Iran's oil exports, often through independent refiners to circumvent US sanctions.
China and Iran inked a 25-year comprehensive strategic partnership in 2021, in a wide-ranging accord that also formally inducted Tehran into Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative.
Fulton said China is likely 'quite worried' about the Iranian regime's survival. 'I think they see a vulnerable partner in a very dangerous situation,' he said.
Israel has wiped out nearly the entire top echelon of Iran's military commanders and its leading nuclear scientists. It has also said it now has control of Iranian airspace and intends to escalate the campaign in the coming days.
China would much prefer that the current Iranian regime tide the conflict through, as its downfall would spell regional instability and unpredictability, said Ghiselli from the University of Exeter.
Analysts have pointed out how China views Iran as a strategic partner in counterbalancing American influence in the Middle East. Western sanctions on Tehran have also created space for Chinese companies to fill.
Still, Ghiselli said Beijing is unlikely to take proactive steps to assist Tehran, such as by extending military assistance.
'Iran needs more than diplomatic support or missile components. It needs air defences and new fighter jets. China could provide them, but there would be no way to put them to use immediately,' he said.
Wading directly into the fray would also inflame already-heightened tensions with the US - a scenario China is keen to avoid, he added.
The Group of Seven nations, which includes the US, expressed support for Israel in a statement issued late on Jun 16 and labelled its rival Iran as a source of instability in the Middle East.
'China's direct involvement in the conflict would propel the rivalry (with the US) to another level, in a moment in which Beijing wants to stabilise the relations with Washington to ease the pressure on its economy and tech development,' Ghiselli said.
Similarly, FDD's Singleton said tilting too far towards Iran would invite US sanctions on China, alienate its Gulf partners and expose the limits of Beijing's alternative-power narrative.
'(Thus) underscoring China's lack of credibility as a serious Middle East power broker and all but relegating it to the sidelines,' he added.
As hostilities between Israel and Iran rage on, China will likely adopt a 'reactive approach', 'waiting and hoping' that the Iranian administration does not fall while preparing for a 'post-Ayatollah scenario', said Ghiselli from the University of Exeter.
'In any case, democracy rarely follows when an authoritarian regime collapses. While not ideal, I think China would accept the emergence of a more secular, military-led regime,' he said.
'Chinese analysts have long argued that the policies of the current Iranian leadership were too extreme and counterproductive, given the dire situation of the Iranian economy.'
Sweeping Western sanctions and government mismanagement have hit Iran's economy hard. Its rial currency has collapsed in value, inflation has surged drastically, and frequent blackouts amid an energy crisis have hobbled industrial output and daily life.
RISKS OF A REGIONAL SPILLOVER
While the conflict remains confined to Israel and Iran for now, there are fears it could spill over to the region. This would carry significant risks for both China and the wider world, analysts say.
There has been speculation that Iran could move to block the crucial Strait of Hormuz as retaliation. Tehran has in the past threatened to close it in retaliation for Western pressure.
Disruption to oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz - the sole maritime artery linking Gulf exporters to global markets - could restrict trade and send energy prices soaring. It accounts for nearly one-fifth of global oil shipments.
This is widely deemed to be bad news for China, the world's top importer of crude oil. Beijing sources around 40 per cent of its crude oil from the Middle East, with major suppliers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates.
'China is the largest trading partner of the Middle East and the predominant importer of Gulf oil. It wants to promote its Belt and Road Initiative in the region,' said Sun from Fudan University.
A regional conflagration also risks spiking global oil prices, which would increase China's import bill and strain an economy already feeling the heat from US tariffs, elevated local government debt and an ageing population.
Oil prices surged to their highest in three years on Friday in the wake of Israel's attack on Iran, although rates have since fallen back.
A spillover of the conflict into more of the Middle East would also threaten the well-being of Chinese nationals in the region, alongside the millions of other foreigners.
According to reports, there are an estimated 1 million Chinese citizens in the Middle East, likely more when including the transient population of Chinese visitors, merchants, and contract workers.
China's embassies in Israel and Iran have already urged Chinese citizens to leave the respective countries as soon as possible.
Even as the trajectory of the conflict remains in flux, analysts say there's a chance the regional risks can be kept in check.
'Oil prices remain steady, regional players are sitting on their hands, and absent proxy escalation (means) the fallout may stay contained,' said FDD's Singleton, calling it 'early days'.
'Though a protracted fight could still redraw risk calculations across the Gulf and in the Indo-Pacific.'
A regional escalation would be a 'nightmare scenario', said the Atlantic Council's Fulton.