Buttigieg faces soft spot with Black voters as White House speculation grows
In October, Buttigieg will speak at the Michigan Democratic Party's 'Best of the West' event, a prime swing-state spot for a presidential hopeful.
The mayor-turned-Cabinet secretary is writing a book, a checklist item for presidential candidates.
And he's been on the move since leaving his post as secretary of Transportation under former President Biden, sources close to him say.
While all signs point to 'yes' on another Buttigieg presidential run, some Democrats wonder if he has what it takes to win.
'He's got one big, glaring soft spot … which is his relationship with the Black community,' said one veteran Democratic strategist. 'He didn't have a lot of African American fans from his time as mayor, he didn't have a lot of Black support when he ran for president, and I haven't seen evidence that he's done much to fix that over the last few years.'
An Emerson College poll in late June showed Buttigieg continues to face problems with Black voters. In a stunning result, zero percent of Black respondents supported him when asked whom they'd back for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in 2028.
'You can't get nominated as a Democrat without the support of African American women,' the veteran strategist said.
Buttigieg remains a star in the party who could be well suited to the politics of 2028.
As Democrats try to find their footing after a devastating loss in the 2024 presidential election, they have learned that they need a candidate that can help to recapture working-class voters and independents, many of whom were key to President Trump's victory.
'Since leaving office, Pete has been eager to meet with people to have substantive discussions to hear more about their experiences and the issues that matter most to them,' said Chris Meagher, an adviser for Buttigieg.
'We're trying out several different formats — town halls, Q&As with different people on his social media, going out to podcasts and shows both political and nonpolitical, and more — to try to reach people where they are, both in-person and online.'
But Buttigieg might not provide the cure for what ails the party, political observers say.
'Democrats need those voters to win,' said Julian Zelizer, a professor of public affairs and history at Princeton University. 'Part of what Democrats are looking for … is someone who could imagine appealing to working voters and Black working voters, Latino working voters, even rural working voters.'
'I'm not sure a lot of Democrats think that's the person who can do that,' Zelizer added. 'There's a perception he kind of is more out of the Obama-era Democrat, highly educated, kind of down to that world.'
'That's … baggage he's going to have to deal with,' he said.
Still, Buttigieg is ahead in some early 2028 polling.
The Emerson College poll from June, for example, shows that he is the front-runner in what is expected to be a crowded primary that could see more than two dozen candidates, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Harris on Wednesday said she would not run for governor of California next year, which suggests she could be thinking about a race in 2028.
'The fact that he is up against people like Newsom and Harris and he is ahead of them is not nothing,' one Democratic donor said.
The donor added he was pleased to see Buttigieg buck some of his party's flaws in a series of interviews in recent months.
In a sit-down with NPR earlier this week, for example, Buttigieg slapped his party for being 'too attached to a status quo that has been failing us for a long time.'
He also weighed in on the controversy surrounding transgender athletes, an issue that has been making headlines since Newsom addressed it earlier this year.
'That does call into question some of the past orthodoxies in my party, for example, around sports, where I think most reasonable people would recognize that there are serious fairness issues if you just treat this as not mattering when a trans athlete wants to compete in women's sports,' Buttigieg said in the interview.
In a May interview with MSNBC's Jen Psaki, Buttigieg spoke about how the Democratic Party can't just be anti-Trump without offering voters an alternative vision for the country. And in a March interview with Kaitlan Collins of CNN, he criticized Trump administration officials for using the messaging app Signal to share allegedly confidential information about a military operation in Yemen.
But his own tenure as Transportation secretary could play a factor in a 2028 campaign.
In March 2023, Buttigieg was criticized for taking too long to travel to East Palestine, Ohio, when a train derailed and created serious environmental and health concerns for the community. A few months earlier, he caught slack for two back-to-back air travel interruptions.
'Some of that stuff will definitely come back to haunt him,' the donor predicted.
But Democrats say Buttigieg can point to a slew of accomplishments during his tenure — including his role in formulating and implementing Biden's trillion-dollar infrastructure legislation.
'More than anyone else in the Biden Cabinet, Buttigieg comes out with a story to tell and a case to make for why he'd do well in the top job,' said Democratic strategist Christy Setzer. 'Americans may not notice or care about the difference an effective, say, secretary of State makes, but they certainly know that six months ago, planes weren't falling out of the sky seemingly every week.'
Democrats have also raised questions about how Buttigieg's sexuality could affect his performance with voters — which was also a discussion during his 2020 presidential run. If he were to win in 2028, he would be the first openly gay president.
After 2024 and 2016, when Democratic candidates Harris and Hillary Clinton lost in their respective races to Trump, some Democrats say a Buttigieg nomination could be a stretch.
'Sadly, I expect diversity to be an issue in the next Democratic race for president,' the veteran Democratic strategist said. 'I don't think Democrats care that much, but after Clinton and Harris, many believe swing voters care a lot and there is budding reluctance to risk winning the White House back on the chance to make history.'
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