EUROPE A fragile ceasefire is good enough for markets

Reuters

5 hours ago

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Some 24 hours on from when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a truce in the Middle East - despite being disturbed by some Iranian rocket fire and an Israeli vow to respond - investors seem to be keeping faith that the worst is over.
Although the global stock rally appears to have petered out for now, and crude oil looks to have found a floor, there's not been much retracement of those sizeable market moves, at least so far.
A big part of that may be that even at the height of the hostilities, the security of Iran's oil infrastructure and the vital tanker thoroughfare, the Strait of Hormuz, was never seriously in doubt.
A buoyant Trump even took to social media to say China can now, again, purchase Iranian oil, forcing the White House to swiftly clarify there was no change in stance with regard to U.S. sanctions.
Trump has also found himself at odds with his own Defense Intelligence Agency, which said in an initial report that U.S. bomber strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities at the weekend had only set the country's capabilities back by a month or two. Trump said Iran's nuclear program had been "obliterated".
That raises questions about whether the U.S.'s or Israel's goals in the air war were actually realised, and about what comes next.
We're very likely to hear more from Trump on the Middle East as he flies into The Hague for a NATO summit today, where defence spending will be a primary focus.
Developments in the Middle East are likely to remain the center of market attention throughout the European trading day, with very little on the corporate or macro calendars today.
Later, U.S. data is limited to new home sales.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be back on Capitol Hill to give testimony before the Senate, although having done the same to the House the previous day, there's not likely to be much that's new.
In political developments north of DC, Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old state lawmaker and self-described democratic socialist, was poised to win New York City's Democratic mayoral primary in a surprising upset over former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
-NATO summit
-US new home sales (May)
-Fed Chair Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee
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