Is AI Too Good at Tracking Stock Market Trends?
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Joby Aviation Stock Soars to an All-Time High: My Prediction for What Comes Next
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It now has a market cap of $14.8 billion even though it generates zero dollars in revenue. Here's my prediction for what comes next with Joby Aviation stock. Betting big on air taxis Utilizing electric motor technology and innovations in aerodynamics, Joby Aviation has created a vertical takeoff vehicle that is quiet enough to leave from residential neighborhoods. It is manned by a pilot, can fit four riders, and has a top speed of 200 miles per hour. The company is planning to set up point-to-point networks in major cities such as New York, where customers will be able to hop from Manhattan directly to the airport, shaving off time that would have been spent sitting in traffic. The company is not officially operating its network yet, but it's working with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the final stages of testing its aircraft. Multiple pilots have flown the Joby vehicle already, with its manufacturing facilities producing its fifth aircraft for pilots last quarter. Management recently announced an expansion of its factory in California, with plans to eventually produce 24 air taxis annually from this location. Multiple transportation companies have seen the promise in Joby Aviation. Toyota Motors has invested a total of $894 million in the company and is working directly with the company on manufacturing processes. Delta Air Lines is an investor, while Uber Technologies is a partner that will eventually add Joby flights to its ride-sharing application. Joby needs to get a lot of customer demand in order to get a return on its air taxi spending, which will require full operating schedules and high ticket prices. This is possible if its partners such as Uber and Delta drive customers to the upcoming service. The company is not just looking to expand in New York. It is working to add air taxis to Los Angeles, Dubai, and even Japan and the United Kingdom. Most major cities in the world have traffic issues and could see some (especially wealthier) citizens utilize this upcoming air taxi network. Aggressive spending and cash burn There is a lot of promise with Joby's air taxis, but the growth is all theoretical today. Joby does not generate any revenue, is still in the FAA certification process, and has manufactured only a few air taxis to date. Still, it is aggressively burning money on research, manufacturing, and overhead costs as it works to build up its vertically integrated factory network in the United States. In the first quarter of 2025, it spent $134 million on research and development. Over the last 12 months, free cash flow was negative $489 million. The company does have $813 million in cash and a $500 million commitment from Toyota, but this only gives it two to three years of cash burn at its current rate before it will need to raise more funds. My prediction for what comes next with Joby Aviation stock I like the idea of air taxi networks. As long as they can be operated safely, it is a path forward to help alleviate traffic on major highways in metro areas, and it looks like something people will pay up for in order to save time on the way to the airport or other societal hubs. My problem comes from Joby Aviation's market cap of $14.8 billion, making the stock wildly overvalued for a pre-revenue start-up. At its current manufacturing run-rate of 24 air taxis a year that could grow in the years to come, Joby Aviation may have 200 vehicles in operation by 2030. Assuming 20 flights per vehicle per day at $500 each split among the four passengers, that is $730 million in annual revenue for Joby Aviation. It is currently spending close to $500 million a year before generating any sales. There will be variable costs when its taxi network starts operating, along with more money spent to build each vehicle. It is unlikely that Joby Aviation will generate a profit by 2030 even if it can scale up its air taxi routes and charge an average of $500 per flight (which is more than the average round-trip airline ticket for comparable routes). Air taxis are an interesting idea, but that doesn't mean Joby Aviation is a buy with the stock trading at a market cap of $14.8 billion. I predict that pain is ahead for Joby Aviation shareholders for the rest of this decade, even if the company remains on track with its air taxi network buildout. Should you buy stock in Joby Aviation right now? Before you buy stock in Joby Aviation, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Joby Aviation wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. 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Joby Aviation Stock Soars to an All-Time High: My Prediction for What Comes Next was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Both stocks fizzled out as they missed their own goals and racked up steep losses. Rising rates also popped their bubbly valuations. But when interest rates declined in 2024, Rivian and Lucid didn't bounce back even as investors pivoted back toward more speculative stocks. That sentiment is still chilly: Rivian's stock has only risen 5% since the beginning of 2025, while Lucid's stock dipped 3%. Should contrarian investors consider buying either of these EV stocks right now? Why did Rivian and Lucid disappoint the market? Rivian sells three EVs: its R1T pickup, its R1S full-size SUV, and an electric delivery van (EDV) for its top investor, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and other companies. Before it went public, it claimed it could produce 50,000 vehicles in 2022. But in reality, it only produced 24,337 vehicles that year as it grappled with supply chain disruptions. Lucid sells two vehicles: its Air sedan and its new Gravity SUV. In its pre-merger presentation, it claimed it could deliver 20,000 vehicles in 2022. Unfortunately, it only delivered 4,369 vehicles in 2022 as it also struggled with supply chain constraints and production issues. At their record highs, Rivian's market cap hit $153.3 billion, or 92 times its 2022 revenue; while Lucid's market cap reached $91.4 billion, which was 150 times its 2022 revenue. Those sky-high valuations set both stocks up for steep declines when they missed their own rosy forecasts. What happened over the following years? In 2023, Rivian more than doubled its production to 57,232 vehicles as it overcame its supply chain issues. But in 2024, its production dipped to 49,476 vehicles as rising rates chilled the EV market, it faced tougher competition, and it temporarily shut down its main Illinois plant to upgrade its production capabilities. In 2025, it only expects to deliver 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles as it deals with higher tariffs on its raw materials and batteries, ongoing supply chain challenges, and another temporary shutdown to prepare for the launch of its smaller R2 SUV in 2026. Rivian is dealing with a lot of growing pains, but it's still supported by Amazon, Porsche (OTC: POAHY), Saudi Arabian conglomerate Abdul Latif Jameel, and other big investors. It ended its latest quarter with $8.5 billion in liquidity, and it expects the rollout of its smaller R2 SUV to significantly boost its sales and profits as it reaches a broader range of customers. Lucid's deliveries rose to 6,001 vehicles in 2023 and 10,241 vehicles in 2024, but those numbers were dismal compared to its original estimates. Lucid faced many of the same macro and competitive challenges as Rivian, and its CEO, Peter Rawlinson -- who attracted a lot of attention for his previous stint as Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) chief vehicle engineer -- stepped down this February. Its board still hasn't appointed a permanent CEO yet. Rivian's founder and CEO, RJ Scaringe, remains in charge of his company. Lucid claims it can more than double its production to 20,000 vehicles this year as it ramps up its production of the Gravity SUV, but it doesn't have a great track record of meeting its own expectations. Yet Lucid is still firmly backed by Saudi Arabia's sovereign Public Investment Fund (PIF), which owns nearly two-thirds of its shares, and it ended its latest quarter with about $5.7 billion in liquidity, which it claims can carry it through its launch of the Gravity SUV. Which stock has more upside potential? From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Rivian's revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% as Lucid's revenue rises at a CAGR of 85%. Based on those estimates, which we should take with a grain of salt, Rivian and Lucid trade at 3.2 times and 6.9 times this year's sales, respectively. Neither company is expected to come close to breaking even, but Rivian's gross margins turned positive over the past two quarters as economies of scale kicked in. Lucid's gross margins are still negative. Rivian's higher production rates, healthier gross margins, and more stable leadership make it a stronger investment than Lucid right now -- even if its production wanes ahead of the R2's launch. As for Lucid, I'm not sure it can successfully ramp up its production of the Gravity and meet Wall Street's high expectations. If it falls short of that goal, its valuations will decline and its stock will drop even further. Should you buy stock in Rivian Automotive right now? Before you buy stock in Rivian Automotive, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Rivian Automotive wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $636,628!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,063,471!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,041% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 183% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025 Leo Sun has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Porsche Automobil Se. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rivian vs. Lucid: Which EV Stock Is Winning in 2025? was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
