BP: Non-OPEC Oil Supply Growth to Peak in Early 2026
The news headline of the day when it comes to the agenda out of Washington is potentially secondary sanctions or even tariffs when it comes to Russia and India as well. Walk us through where you think that might show up in terms of the market impact. Yeah, So I think first, demand remains pretty, pretty robust, if I'm honest. Despite all the headlines, 1% growth in demand over the past 20 years or so, 2025 looks like 1% demand growth. 2026 looks like 1% demand growth to us from different sectors, from pat downs in 26 demand growth continue to be strong for the product. There's a lot of new volumes coming on line between OPEC and non-OPEC production. We're seeing quite a bit of that start up around October this year, continuing on for about three months and then supply will be relatively flat for the next 12, 18 months after that. So that's that's what we're seeing. As far as the fundamentals, I think I think anything that happens with sanctions obviously tighten supplies, so puts upward pressure on price. But let's let's see what happens. It's pretty hard to predict what's going to happen between Russian sanctions, Iranian sanctions, Chinese storage, and then the underlying fundamentals of the oil markets. Well, Murray, let's talk about another kind of perspective from Washington. Oliver Crook and I were debating this this morning. So many of the trade deals that have been inked between Washington and major capitals around the world actively mentioned energy purchases, energy investment, even the European Union specifically talking about promising to the tune about 600 billion when it comes to those energy purchases. Are those viable numbers from your perspective? Look, the the U.S. is a big exporter of oil, a big exporter of ethane, a big exporter of natural gas. So there's lots of export there. And nations will just have to work with work with the United States and work with corporations to create change. For our part, it's an interesting opportunity inside the LNG space and inside the oil space. We have a different strategy on LNG, which is to try to create flexibility in how we how we deliver volumes. And about 50% of our volumes are divertable right now. Now we'll move to our over 60% divertable by the time we hit 2026. So it's interesting for us and we'll work with nations and customers to try to see how we help the situation.
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