logo
The market's first half broke from the AI trend

The market's first half broke from the AI trend

Axios01-07-2025
If stocks are up, they tend to keep going up. But the companies that drove the market higher in the first half of 2025 are not typical of bull markets.
Why it matters: As investors confronted uncertainty, with a record number of companies mentioning the term on earnings calls, market leadership skewed more defensive than growth-oriented.
That could indicate the current market highs are not on the strongest footing as the second half of the year kicks off.
By the numbers: The best performing sectors in the first half of the year were industrials, communication services and financials. These are not the growth names that tend to rally in frothy environments.
Tech was the fifth-best performing sector year to date, up just over 6.5%.
Utilities — a sector that could be seen as defensive since consumers are more likely to pay their utility bills even amid economic slowdowns — outperformed big tech.
Investor excitement about artificial intelligence "faded during the midst of the tariff selloff in March and April," according to a note from Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth.
Between the lines: Remember the Magnificent 7? The basket of tech stocks is up just 1.7% year to date (though it is up over 35% from its April low).
Tech has still been outperforming the broader market since the April lows, and those gains are expected to continue, Bellin says.
Yes, but: The shift in leadership away from tech could also be viewed as a positive for investors who worry about market breadth.
Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, calls the current rally "broad based" in a note that described the first half of the year as "tumultuous but resilient."
What we're watching: Consumer discretionary stocks were the worst-performing sector for the first half of the year.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

What tariffs? S&P 500 companies are wrapping up one of the strongest earnings seasons on record.
What tariffs? S&P 500 companies are wrapping up one of the strongest earnings seasons on record.

Yahoo

time3 hours ago

  • Yahoo

What tariffs? S&P 500 companies are wrapping up one of the strongest earnings seasons on record.

Earnings have been much better than feared this reporting season. Despite concerns about the economic impact of tariffs, companies have been resilient. Goldman Sachs says that Q2 earnings have been among the strongest on record. Second-quarter earnings season is almost over and it's been much better than investors had feared going into it. The big lesson so far? Tariffs aren't yet weighing on companies' bottom line. When President Donald Trump began implementing tariffs early in 2025, it sparked concerns that the import duties would result in a hit to earnings growth. Yet, while uncertainty remains elevated, S&P 500 companies are wrapping up a stellar season of quarterly reports. In an August 15 note to investors, Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin said that companies in the benchmark index had shown more resilient profit margins than many expected, helped in a big way by the steady weakening of the US dollar this year, which has helped drive sales growth overseas. "Corporations have continued to message their ability to maintain their margins by negotiating with suppliers, adjusting supply chains, passing through prices to consumers, and cutting other costs," Kostin said. Indeed, this earnings season, 58% of companies increased their full-year guidance for 2025, doubling the number from the first quarter. Aggregate S&P 500 earnings rose 11% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, almost 3x the consensus expectation of 4%, and 84% of companies overall have beaten Wall Street's estimates. "With the 2Q 2025 earnings season nearly complete, the quarter has been marked by one of the greatest frequency of earnings beats on record," Kostin said. While Nvidia doesn't report earnings until August 27, its Magnificent 7 peers reported mostly strong results, excluding Tesla, which saw a steep decline in year-over-year revenue. "Earnings results have continued to be exceptional for the mega-cap tech companies," Kostin wrote. "The Magnificent 7 apparently grew EPS by 26% year/year in 2Q, a 12% beat relative to consensus expectation coming into earnings season." They see this trend as likely to continue, noting that analyst estimates predict nominal sales growth will remain roughly stable for both large and small-mid cap companies through the end of 2025. Kostin and his team said that while they expect to see many S&P 500 companies maintain high profit margins in the coming quarters, they see analyst margin forecasts for 2026 as overly optimistic. "While companies remain confident in their ability to mitigate the cost pressures imposed by tariffs, and arithmetically the superior margins of the largest technology companies should continue to boost margins for the aggregate index, we see little reason to expect a large increase in profit margins next year." Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

What tariffs? S&P 500 companies are wrapping up one of the strongest earnings seasons on record.
What tariffs? S&P 500 companies are wrapping up one of the strongest earnings seasons on record.

Business Insider

time3 hours ago

  • Business Insider

What tariffs? S&P 500 companies are wrapping up one of the strongest earnings seasons on record.

Second-quarter earnings season is almost over and it's been much better than investors had feared going into it. The big lesson so far? Tariffs aren't yet weighing on companies' bottom line. When President Donald Trump began implementing tariffs early in 2025, it sparked concerns that the import duties would result in a hit to earnings growth. Yet, while uncertainty remains elevated, S&P 500 companies are wrapping up a stellar season of quarterly reports. In an August 15 note to investors, Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin said that companies in the benchmark index had shown more resilient profit margins than many expected, helped in a big way by the steady weakening of the US dollar this year, which has helped drive sales growth overseas. "Corporations have continued to message their ability to maintain their margins by negotiating with suppliers, adjusting supply chains, passing through prices to consumers, and cutting other costs," Kostin said. Indeed, this earnings season, 58% of companies increased their full-year guidance for 2025, doubling the number from the first quarter. Aggregate S&P 500 earnings rose 11% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, almost 3x the consensus expectation of 4%, and 84% of companies overall have beaten Wall Street's estimates. "With the 2Q 2025 earnings season nearly complete, the quarter has been marked by one of the greatest frequency of earnings beats on record," Kostin said. While Nvidia doesn't report earnings until August 27, its Magnificent 7 peers reported mostly strong results, excluding Tesla, which saw a steep decline in year-over-year revenue. "Earnings results have continued to be exceptional for the mega-cap tech companies," Kostin wrote. "The Magnificent 7 apparently grew EPS by 26% year/year in 2Q, a 12% beat relative to consensus expectation coming into earnings season." They see this trend as likely to continue, noting that analyst estimates predict nominal sales growth will remain roughly stable for both large and small-mid cap companies through the end of 2025. Kostin and his team said that while they expect to see many S&P 500 companies maintain high profit margins in the coming quarters, they see analyst margin forecasts for 2026 as overly optimistic. "While companies remain confident in their ability to mitigate the cost pressures imposed by tariffs, and arithmetically the superior margins of the largest technology companies should continue to boost margins for the aggregate index, we see little reason to expect a large increase in profit margins next year."

Back to school: Supporting caregivers builds stronger teams
Back to school: Supporting caregivers builds stronger teams

Fast Company

time4 hours ago

  • Fast Company

Back to school: Supporting caregivers builds stronger teams

As another school year begins, businesses across the country are focused on year-end performance and pushing through the final stretch of the calendar year. But for millions of workers, this season brings something else: a return to logistical challenges that have little to do with boardrooms or budgets, and everything to do with care. From school drop-offs and aftercare coordination to sudden sick days or staffing shortages in school support services, the start of the academic year is one of the most demanding periods for working families. For caregivers—whether they're parents, guardians, or those supporting people with disabilities—this time of year can directly impact workplace performance, availability, and stress levels. WORKFORCE DISRUPTION STARTS AT HOME Nearly 1 in 5 adults in the U.S. is a family caregiver. Millions more are parents of school-age children. For these employees, managing care responsibilities is a central part of their daily reality. When schools are closed or support systems fall short, students are affected, and so is the entire workforce. This reality plays out every day in companies of every size. Absenteeism rises, turnover risks increase, and productivity takes a hit, not because people aren't committed, but because, oftentimes, the infrastructure around them doesn't support how modern families live and work. If we want strong teams and sustained performance, we need to treat care as a core business issue, not just a personal one. FLEXIBILITY IS A STRATEGIC BUSINESS MOVE At Easterseals, we work with families navigating complex care responsibilities, from early childhood to aging and disability support. We see how even small workplace accommodations can have an outsized impact on an employee's ability to show up, stay engaged, and succeed. Flexibility doesn't always mean remote work. It can mean staggered start times, compressed schedules, or the option to attend a mid-morning IEP meeting without penalty. It means designing policies that recognize people don't stop being caregivers when they log in to their laptops. The best employers are already ahead of this curve. They know that supporting caregivers is how you retain talent in a competitive market. And increasingly, it's how you build a workplace culture where people feel valued and able to bring their full selves to work. THE RIPPLE EFFECT OF SUPPORT Supporting caregivers goes beyond individual accommodations. It signals something bigger: that your organization understands real life. And when employees feel supported in their lives outside of work, they're more likely to stay, more likely to perform, and more likely to invest back into the mission of the business. We see this across our own teams and among our partners. When an employee knows they won't be punished for tending to their child's medical needs or managing an aging parent's care, they're more focused and more loyal. A CALL TO BUSINESS LEADERS As we enter this new school year, I encourage all business leaders to ask: What systems do we have in place for the parents and caregivers on our teams? Are we noticing who's putting in their notice because they can't balance it all? Have we built a culture where people can ask for what they need? These questions contribute to the long-term strength of our workforce. A good place to start: Review your flexibility policies, train managers to support working caregivers, and make sure your benefits reflect the realities of your team. Small adjustments can go a long way toward keeping great employees on board. Because care doesn't stop at the workplace door, it's a workforce issue. And when we recognize it as such, we unlock the potential of employees who are balancing multiple responsibilities, and still showing up every day, ready to give their best.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store