logo

Indonesia's $48bln social security fund eyes doubling equities exposure

Zawya11-04-2025

JAKARTA - Indonesia's $48 billion social security fund BPJS Ketenagakerjaan, the country's largest institutional investor, aims to raise the share of local equities in its portfolio to up to 20% within three years, a top official told Reuters on Friday.
Asked about this week's local stock market tumble following the global turmoil caused by U.S. tariffs, Edwin Ridwan, the agency's director of investment development, said it had created room for the fund to invest in undervalued shares.
The state-owned fund has been increasing its investment gradually in stocks with big market capitalisation, he said, in sectors such as banking, telecommunications, commodities and consumer goods.
"These are the conditions where people are selling, if we look at history ... whenever the market overshoots, people are selling, it's the best time to buy," he said in an interview, referring to the financial crises of 1998 and 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic.
"The window has started to open up for us to increase our exposure to equities, because we need volume, we need liquidity, and with everybody selling, that liquidity is being provided."
Edwin added that the fund was targeting a 13% year-on-year increase in returns in 2025.
BPJS Ketenagakerjaan's current exposure to equities was at around 10% or equivalent to $4.8 billion, either directly in the stock market or through mutual funds, it said, adding that its target is to expand that to between 15% and 20% within three years. The largest portion is invested in bonds, and the rest is in deposits and other instruments.
Indonesia's stock market tanked when it reopened on Tuesday after an extended holiday break, triggering a 30-minute trading halt in response to the global turmoil over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs announcement days earlier. The market has since regained some of its losses.
President Prabowo Subianto is looking to increase the state's role in achieving its 8% growth target, including via the setting up of a new sovereign wealth fund managing more than $900 billion in assets as well as a state firm to run confiscated palm plantations.
Since the global turmoil hit Indonesian markets, the country has also eased buyback rules for publicly listed companies, including state-run firms, and Bank Indonesia intervened "aggressively" to support a plummeting rupiah.
Asked whether there was any order from the government for BPJS to support the falling stock market, Edwin said the agency was "quite independent."
'TOO BIG FOR THE MARKET'
The agency has been trying for years to get government approval to invest in overseas financial markets, especially equity markets, Edwin said, citing its need to have more options for its large funds.
"Basically we have a very limited universe...so we can't get in and out easily and we can't buy when other people buy," he said, referring to the risk of crowding out the market.
The agency's assets under management have been expanding at a rate of 13% to 14% per year, and it makes up to 10 trillion rupiah ($595 million) per month in returns, Edwin said, explaining why it needs to find more investment instruments.
Possible pressure on the rupiah has been one consideration against overseas investment, Edwin said, but he added that foreign exchange supply could be improved via return repatriation. ($1 = 16,790.0000 rupiah) (Reporting by Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by Martin Petty, Gibran Peshimam and Hugh Lawson)

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

World Bank cuts global growth forecast as trade tensions heighten uncertainty
World Bank cuts global growth forecast as trade tensions heighten uncertainty

Dubai Eye

time9 hours ago

  • Dubai Eye

World Bank cuts global growth forecast as trade tensions heighten uncertainty

The World Bank slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by four-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3 per cent, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies. In its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, the global lender lowered its forecasts for nearly 70 per cent of all economies - including the US, China and Europe, as well as six emerging market regions - from the levels it projected six months ago before US President Donald Trump took office. Trump has upended global trade with a series of on-again, off-again tariff hikes that have increased the effective US tariff rate from below 3 per cent to the mid-teens - its highest level in almost a century - and triggered retaliation by China and other countries. The World Bank is the latest body to cut its growth forecast as a result of Trump's erratic trade policies, although US officials insist the negative consequences will be offset by a surge in investment and still-to-be approved tax cuts. It stopped short of forecasting a recession, but said global economic growth this year would be the weakest outside of a recession since 2008. By 2027, global gross domestic product growth was expected to average just 2.5 per cent, the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s. The report forecast that global trade would grow by 1.8 per cent in 2025, down from 3.4 per cent in 2024 and roughly a third of its 5.9 per cent level in the 2000s. The forecast is based on tariffs in effect as of late May, including a 10 per cent US tariff on imports from most countries. It excludes increases that were announced by Trump in April and then postponed until July 9 to allow for negotiations. The World Bank said global inflation was expected to reach 2.9 per cent in 2025, remaining above pre-COVID-19 levels, given tariff increases and tight labor markets. "Risks to the global outlook remain tilted decidedly to the downside," it wrote. The lender said its models showed that a further increase of 10 percentage points in average US tariffs, on top of the 10 per cent rate already implemented, and proportional retaliation by other countries, could shave another half of a percentage point off the outlook for 2025. Such an escalation in trade barriers would result "in global trade seizing up in the second half of this year... accompanied by a widespread collapse in confidence, surging uncertainty and turmoil in financial markets," the report said. Nonetheless, it said the risk of a global recession was less than 10 per cent. Top officials from the US and China are meeting in London this week to try to defuse a trade dispute that has widened from tariffs to restrictions over rare earth minerals, threatening a global supply chain shock and slower growth. "Uncertainty remains a powerful drag, like fog on a runway. It slows investment and clouds the outlook," World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose told Reuters in an interview. But Kose said there were signs of increased dialogue on trade that could help dispel uncertainty, and supply chains were adapting to a new global trade map, not collapsing. Global trade growth could modestly rebound in 2026 to 2.4 per cent, and developments in artificial intelligence could also boost growth, he said. "We think that eventually the uncertainty will decline," Kose said. "Once the type of fog we have lifts, the trade engine may start running again, but at a slower pace." Kose said while things could get worse, trade was continuing and China, India and others were still delivering robust growth. Many countries were also discussing new trade partnerships that could pay dividends later, he said. The World Bank said the global outlook had "deteriorated substantially" since January, mainly due to advanced economies, which are now seen growing by just 1.2 per cent, down half a percentage point, after expanding by 1.7 per cent per cent in 2024. The US forecast was slashed by nine-tenths of a percentage point from its January forecast to 1.4 per cent, and the 2026 outlook was lowered by four-tenths of a percentage point to 1.6 per cent. Rising trade barriers, "record-high uncertainty" and a spike in financial market volatility were expected to weigh on private consumption, trade and investment, it said. The White House pushed back against the forecast, citing recent economic data that it said pointed to a stronger economy. "The World Bank's prognostications are untethered to the data: investment in real business equipment surged by nearly 25 per cent in Q1 of 2025; real disposable personal income grew by a robust 0.7 per cent month-over-month in April; and Americans have now seen three consecutive expectation-beating jobs and inflation reports," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said. He added that a sweeping budget package currently making its way through Congress would provide tax relief and "further turbo-charge America's economic resurgence under President Trump." The World Bank cut growth estimates in the euro zone by three-tenths of a percentage point to 0.7 per cent and in Japan by half a percentage point to 0.7 per cent. It said emerging markets and developing economies were expected to grow by 3.8 per cent in 2025 versus 4.1 per cent in the forecast in January. Poor countries would suffer the most, the report said. By 2027, developing economies' per capita GDP would be 6 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, and it could take these countries - minus China - two decades to recoup the economic losses of the 2020s. Mexico, heavily dependent on trade with the US, saw its growth forecast cut by 1.3 percentage points to 0.2 per cent in 2025. The World Bank left its forecast for China unchanged at 4.5 per cent from January, saying Beijing still had monetary and fiscal space to support its economy and stimulate growth.

Tariffs could be the spur Europe's single market needs
Tariffs could be the spur Europe's single market needs

Gulf Today

time10 hours ago

  • Gulf Today

Tariffs could be the spur Europe's single market needs

Philip Blenkinsop, Reuters To bring electronic scrap and other waste from across the European Union to its Belgian recycling plant, materials group Umicore can spend at least a month tackling a complex array of national shipment rules. The problem is not just Umicore's as businesses across Europe grapple with internal obstacles that can be as damaging as tariffs. Analysts, however, say US President Donald Trump's tariffs have provided the necessary push to make the bloc the single market it aspires to be. Umicore's difficulties are particularly significant in that the company recycles 17 of the 34 minerals identified by the EU as critical for its green and digital transition. Chief Executive Bart Sap says a shipment may need to go by rail in one country, then transfer to a boat in another with a wealth of diverse documentation along the route. "With that ununified waste market, the internal hurdles are so high that actually 73% of waste is being exported," he told Reuters in an interview. Diverging waste shipment regulation is one of the many internal barriers that add cost and complexity to doing business within the EU. The International Monetary Fund has estimated EU internal barriers are the equivalent of tariffs of 44% for goods and 110% for services, well above the US tariffs of 25% on steel and cars and 10% on many other goods. A similar study in 2021 concluded barriers for goods flow within the United States amounted to a 13% tariff. For goods, EU barriers include restrictions on retailers' ability to source products or sell them in other EU countries and a jumble of rules on labelling. AkzoNobel, Europe's largest paint maker, complains it cannot just sell the same tub across the 27-nation bloc, placing the blame not on different languages but varying rules. These include separate recycling logos in France and Spain and some EU countries requiring air quality information. The Dutch company says it cannot fit all the necessary information on smaller tubs, and that frequent rule changes force it to keep investing on packaging updates. QR codes could be a solution, it says, something the European Union will start requiring from 2027. For services, the single market is even less developed. Laws on setting up foreign subsidiaries diverge, declarations for posting workers abroad vary and 5,700 professions are regulated across the bloc, meaning doctors, nurses, engineers or accountants in one EU country cannot easily work in another. The barriers do not just add cost and complexity. They stifle growth. Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, who produced an influential report on the EU single market last year, said EU companies suffered a "stunning size deficit" relative to rivals and that market divisions prevented them building scale. A core problem is vested interest in sectors protecting regulated professions from competition, and as national supervisors prove resistant to an EU-wide capital market that could rival US investments in newer companies and infrastructure. "These are low-hanging fruit economically, because basically they're free. It's essentially changing regulation. But that doesn't mean they're necessarily politically easy," said Niclas Poitiers, research fellow at think tank Bruegel. Debate on a unified capital market has dragged on for more than a decade as EU members have squabbled over issues such as supervision and insolvency rules. However, a deeper single market has gone from a nice to have to a must have as the impact of Trump's tariffs on exports has highlighted the need to remove obstacles to compete with global rivals. The Commission says it is prioritising removing what it calls the "terrible ten" most harmful single market barriers, including recognition of professional qualifications and fragmented rules on labelling and waste. Letta, dean of IE university in Spain and president of the Jacques Delors Institute think tank, said he was encouraged by Commission initiatives to tackle the most critical unfulfilled parts of the single market — services and capital. They include promotion of a savings and investment union and removing barriers to business in services, Multiple legislative proposals are due in 2025 and 2026. Aslak Berg, research fellow at the Centre for European Reform think tank, said the Commission seemed to be serious about reforms that made a difference, but needed to get EU members on board. Letta said there were though two grounds for optimism. Firstly, EU capitals were aware of the need for change. "The other key point that makes me optimistic is the fact that we have a fantastic friend on the other side of the of ocean, because the acceleration that is taking place is all because of Trump," he said. Letta said the EU needed to push through EU-wide laws called regulations, rather than directives that allow EU members to set their own course on common goals. He also urged the EU to be energised not paralysed by Trump. The EU took a pause after driving through movement of goods and people and its new currency in the late 1980s and 1990s, but then got sidelined by a series of crises, from the sovereign debt crisis, Brexit, COVID-19 and the energy crisis. "The European Union usually is able to focus to one crisis at a time, and today we are all focused on tariffs. That is a problem. Because in reality, my guess is the completion of the single market is more important than all the rest."

Indonesia signs $10bn deal to buy 48 Turkish Kaan fighter jets
Indonesia signs $10bn deal to buy 48 Turkish Kaan fighter jets

Middle East Eye

time16 hours ago

  • Middle East Eye

Indonesia signs $10bn deal to buy 48 Turkish Kaan fighter jets

Indonesia will purchase 48 Kaan fifth-generation fighter jets from Turkey in a deal valued at more than $10bn, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Wednesday. The agreement was signed at the Indo Defence 2025 exhibition in Jakarta, which has been attended by Turkish defence firms. The deal will span 10 years and includes the co-production of some Kaan jet components in Indonesia. Erdogan thanked his Indonesian counterpart, Prabowo Subianto, describing the agreement as the largest defence industry export deal in Turkey's history. Yusuf Akbaba, a Turkish defence industry expert, said the deal is a landmark for the Kaan project, noting that Ankara would have struggled to fund the development of the fifth-generation aircraft alone. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters 'To reduce costs, it is essential to increase the number of orders,' Akbaba told Middle East Eye. 'As the number of units increases, the per-unit price of the aircraft decreases.' Akbaba believes Indonesia's participation could attract interest from Islamic countries and other states in the Asian market. 'Countries like Qatar, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, and a few others are also considering acquiring the aircraft,' he said. 'After this order from Indonesia, procurement processes in those countries may also accelerate.' Azerbaijan announced last year that it would participate in the project, while reports in January indicated that Saudi Arabia was interested in becoming a partner, although that has not yet materialised. For Jakarta, the Kaan would help to replace its dated F-16 fleet and also fill a gap left after it parted ways with South Korea on its KF-21 project. Experts say the KF-21 is not a genuine fifth-generation aircraft, while the Kaan features some sixth-generation capabilities, such as AI integration and drone teaming. Turkey has been developing a fifth-generation aircraft since 2010, but the project accelerated after Ankara was removed from the F-35 programme by the US in 2019 over its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 missile system. The Kaan made its maiden flight in February 2024, temporarily using two General Electric F110-GE-129 engines, the same as those found in Turkish F-16s. Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), which is leading the Kaan project, is working on a locally produced engine for the aircraft. The company aims to deliver the first plane to the Turkish Air Force by the end of 2028, although some analysts predict this might be delayed until 2030. The first 10 Kann Block-1 fighter jets are scheduled to be delivered to the Turkish Air Force between 2030 and 2033.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store