SA inflation holds at 2. 8% in May, but rise in food prices especially meat
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Annual consumer price inflation in South Africa held steady at 2.8% in May 2025, unchanged from April, according to data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) this week.
While overall price pressures remain subdued, the re-emergence of food inflation is raising red flags according to an economist.
Stats SA reported that the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in May. The main contributors to the annual inflation rate were housing and utilities (4.5%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.8%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.3%).
Economist Casey Sprake of Anchor Capital said, 'While fuel disinflation continued to exert downward pressure, this was counterbalanced by a modest rise in food prices and a stable core inflation print.'
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained unchanged at 3.0% year-on-year, indicating that underlying price dynamics are still relatively contained. 'Durable goods categories, particularly furnishings and household equipment, remain deep in deflation, with price declines persisting for over 17 consecutive months,' said Sprake.
Fuel prices continued to offer some relief, with a 1.1% month-on-month drop and a sharp 14.9% year-on-year decline, the largest since October 2024. Petrol is now 15.9% cheaper than a year ago, and diesel prices have dropped by 12.6%.
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But food prices surged, especially in the meat category. Stats SA noted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category was the only major group contributing to the monthly CPI change, increasing by 1.1% month-on-month. Sprake warned, 'This uptick was driven primarily by a sharp increase in meat prices, particularly beef, where inflation rose from 3.0% in April to 4.4% in May.'
The rise in food costs is largely attributed to supply-side shocks such as a widespread outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and high feed costs. Fruit and vegetable prices also saw double-digit increases, intensifying pressure on consumer food baskets.
While the inflation print supports the case for the South African Reserve Bank to maintain a steady interest rate, Sprake noted that geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties could complicate the policy path. 'We expect the Monetary Policy Committee to hold rates steady in July,' she said.
Stats SA will release the next CPI data on 23 July.
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