Crypto's megabill moment
Senate Majority Leader John Thune can only lose one more vote with Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) already opposed. As Senate GOP leaders scramble to strike deals to keep the bill on track, House Republicans are drawing red lines, with fiscal hawks threatening to tank the bill over the Senate's budget framework and moderates balking at the provider-tax crackdown.
Here are the big fights we're watching when amendment votes kick off at 9 a.m., leading to a final vote on passage late Monday or early Tuesday:
Medicaid: GOP Sen. Rick Scott's proposal to curb a key Medicaid funding mechanism after 2030 has Thune's support as part of a deal struck to get the Florida senator and a handful of other holdouts to advance the megabill to debate.
If it fails, it could cost leadership some fiscal hawks, though Sens. Scott and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) refused to go there Sunday night. If it passes, it could alienate so-called Medicaid moderates. One of them, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, filed an amendment that would double the stabilization fund for rural hospitals to $50 billion, and pay for it by adding a 39.6-percent bracket on earners making over $25 million.
Medicaid moderates could also try to further water down the bill's cut to the provider tax. Keep an eye on Tillis, now unburdened by a reelection bid, who slammed the Medicaid cuts in a fiery floor speech Sunday and might jump in again. Another key player to watch is Sen. Lisa Murkowski and whether her support slips after the parliamentarian derailed Medicaid-payment provisions aimed at winning over the Alaskan. The parliamentarian also, as of early this morning, had yet to rule on food-aid waivers for Alaska that could affect Murkowski's vote.
Green credits: Moderates including Tillis and Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) could offer amendments to soften the bill's deep cuts against wind and solar energy, including its crackdown on IRA credits and a new excise tax. That could provoke a fight with House conservatives and the White House, which have pushed for aggressive rollbacks.
AI: Commerce Chair Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) are pitching a plan to cut the megabill's 10-year moratorium on state enforcement of AI laws in half and make accommodations for internet protections.
The grand finale could be a manager's amendment that House GOP leaders are pushing for to further resolve differences between the chambers and speed the bill to Trump by Friday. The House is scheduled to vote as soon as Wednesday at 9 a.m.
What else we're watching:
— Farm bill fight: Dozens of agriculture groups are urging senators to oppose an amendment from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) that would limit income thresholds of farmers who can receive federal aid. A host of farm-state GOP senators also oppose Grassley's push, according to three people granted anonymity. Some are concerned that liberal senators could join with conservative fiscal hawks to pass the amendment.
— Solar and wind tax backlash: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Solar Energy Industry Association are slamming a new addition to the megabill that would tax solar and wind projects that have components from foreign sources, including China. 'Taxing energy production is never good policy, whether oil & gas or, in this case, renewables,' Chamber executive vice president and chief policy officer Neil Bradley wrote on X.
— Campaign announcements: Rep. Don Bacon is expected to announce his retirement Monday, according to two people familiar with his plans. The centrist Republican's Nebraska seat is a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats; it's one of only three GOP-held districts Kamala Harris won in 2024. Meanwhile GOP Rep. Dusty Johnson is expected to announce a bid for South Dakota governor on Monday, according to two people familiar with his planning. He'll be the eighth House Republican to run for higher office in 2026.
Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, Mohar Chatterjee and Josh Siegel contributed to this report.
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The phrase captures a belief among some investors that the president often talks tough on tariffs but rarely follows through. That assumption has helped fuel a tailwind for markets in recent months as traders increasingly bet on last-minute policy pivots. Trade deal frameworks with China and the UK are reportedly now on the table ahead of Trump's self-imposed July 9 deadline. This has led investors to price in a "Goldilocks scenario" for stocks, with sustained earnings growth, little effects from tariffs, and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. But Wall Street pros are signaling caution as they assess the path forward, which still includes many unknowns. "Just as Goldilocks awoke from her sleep to confront three bears, there are several areas where this optimism is likely to be challenged," JPMorgan's economics and policy team, led by Bruce Kasman, wrote in a recent client note. 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As Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reported, the measure passed with a 50-50 split in the Senate, with three Republican defections. Vice President JD Vance cast the tie-breaking vote in favor of the bill, which marked a significant win for the solar and wind energy sectors. Here's why: The bill originally included a new tax on wind and solar projects using a certain amount of parts made in China. Some US manufacturers supported this to reduce dependence on China. But renewable energy developers warned it would raise costs for their projects because many still rely on Chinese parts. To note, the bill still plans to gradually end subsidies for new wind and solar projects starting after 2027, despite some Republican efforts to delay that cutoff. Circle (CRCL) has formally applied with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to get a national trust bank charter, the company said Tuesday. Shares of the stablecoin issuer gained 2.8% in afternoon trading after opening in the red. The stock is up 500% since its June 5 IPO. Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith reports: Read more here. Senate Republicans were able to push President Trump's signature tax legislation over the line to pass it by a thin margin. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul breaks down the Senate's changes to the complex, nearly 900-page bill that are set to reshape the US economy. Here are three major impacts to businesses and the economy: Changes for both the individual and corporate tax structure: A focus on energy: Final-hour healthcare changes: Read more here about the bill's impacts on taxes and more. US stocks remained a mixed bag on Tuesday after Senate lawmakers voted to advance President Trump's tax and spending bill. Vice President JD Vance broke the 50-50 tie to pass the bill after Republican lawmakers pulled an all-nighter to make several last-minute changes and break through Democratic opposition and the Senate's thin margins. 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The price paid index, which is seen as a potential indicator of future prices increases that will passed on by businesses, increased to 69.7 up from 69.4 the month prior. Meanwhile, the employment index registered a reading of 45%, down from 46.8% in May. "Despite the modest gain in the ISM manufacturing index in June, the details of the report point to continued struggles for domestic manufacturers," Oxford Economics senior economist Matthew Martin wrote in a note to clients. "Demand uncertainty and bartering over who foots the tariff bill are leading to delays or cancellations in orders. Until tariff policies and geopolitical issues fade, this is unlikely to change." Shares of struggling chipmaker Wolfspeed (WOLF) climbed 11% Tuesday, though the stock was priced at less than $1 as the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The North Carolina-based semiconductor firm was building a $5 billion plant that would employ 1,800 workers in the state with funding from the CHIPS Act. Delays in receiving its funding from the Trump administration have amplified the company's financial challenges. Wolfspeed said in a statement Monday that it's looking to slash $4.6 billion from its debt pile through a creditor-backed restructuring plan. "By taking this proactive step, the Company expects to be better positioned to execute on its long-term growth strategy and accelerate its path to profitability," the company said. CEO Robert Feurle added, 'Looking ahead, we remain laser-focused on delivering cutting-edge products to our customers and working with our vendors in the normal course." Apple (AAPL) stock jumped 2% Tuesday following a report from Bloomberg that the iPhone maker is considering using AI technology from startups Anthropic ( or OpenAI ( to power a new version of Siri. Apple has spoken to both companies about using their large language models for its voice assistant, Bloomberg wrote, citing unnamed sources. Apple has struggled to catch up to its peers on AI, and its efforts to launch a new AI-powered Siri have fallen flat. Shares of the company have lagged behind its "Magnificent Seven" peers, save for Tesla (TSLA), and are down 16% in 2025. Robinhood (HOOD) shares jumped as analysts issued bullish notes on the stock following its launch of new crypto services at an event Monday. 'HOOD's incredible product velocity makes it hard to keep up with innovation,' Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev wrote in a note to clients Tuesday, upgrading his price target on the stock to $99 from $80. Shares traded around $96 on Tuesday morning. KeyBanc analyst Alex Markgraff also raised his price target on the stock to $110 from $60 following the event, according to Bloomberg data. Robinhood stock is up nearly 158% in 2025 as crypto-related stocks have rallied on the heels of President Trump's election. Trump has favored deregulation of the fraud-ridden crypto industry, unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden. Coinbase (COIN) has risen 40% this year, while bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) is up 34%. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) itself is up 13% in 2025. Job openings rose more than expected in May while investors closely watch for any signs of slowing in the labor market as debate over when the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again intensifies. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.76 million jobs open at the end of May, an increase from the 7.39 million seen the month prior and the highest level since November 2024. The April figure was revised higher by 4,000 from the 7.39 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Tuesday's report to show 7.3 million openings in May. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed that 5.5 million hires were made during the month, down from the 5.61 million made during April. The hiring rate ticked lower to 3.4% from 3.5%. In one sign that workers remain cautious about labor market conditions, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, moved up to 2.1% from 2% in April. Still, both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows, reflecting what economists have described as a labor market in "stasis." Read more here. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has begun speaking about the Fed's policy stance at an ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, where he said that tariffs are causing the central bank to take its time before cutting interest rates. When asked if the Fed would have cut interest rates by more by now if it weren't for higher tariffs, Powell stated, "I think that's right." "In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs," Powell continued. "Essentially, all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs." Powell noted that the US economy remains healthy overall but that he expects to see the effects of tariffs filter through the economic data in the coming months. In recent days, Powell has faced increased pressure, including in the form of handwritten notes, from President Trump to lower interest rates. "Ignore the tariffs for a second," Powell said of the economy. "Inflation is behaving pretty much exactly as we have expected and hoped that it would. We haven't seen effects much yet from tariffs, and we didn't expect to by now." Watch Powell speak live below: US stocks pulled back from record highs Tuesday morning as President Trump's massive budget bill made its way through the Senate and investors looked for progress on trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped about 0.3% after closing above 6,200 for the first time on Monday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) traded roughly flat. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.4%, with Tesla (TSLA) stock plummeting more than 7% as CEO Elon Musk's feud with Trump reignited. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 1% and Meta (META) dropped fractionally after the two members of the "Magnificent Seven" hit fresh records the prior day. Tesla (TSLA) stock sank as much as 6% before the market open Tuesday as the feud between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump reignited overnight, with the president once again threatening to cut government subsidies across Elon Musk's businesses, including Tesla and SpaceX ( 'Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa,' Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social early Monday. 'No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!' The threats followed Musk's criticism of Trump's "big, beautiful" tax and spending bill over the weekend after the Senate advanced the bill with last-minute additions that would eliminate electric vehicle tax credits, which benefit Tesla customers, earlier than expected and add $1 trillion to the bill's original price tag. Read the full story here. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell about 2 basis points to 4.20% on Tuesday — hitting its lowest level in two months — ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech today at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal. Powell will join a panel of central bankers at the ECB forum to discuss the Federal Reserve's policy stance as pressure from the White House to cut interest rates has ratcheted up. On Monday, Trump sent Powell a signed note that lambasted the Fed chair for not slashing rates. Bloomberg reports: Read more: What is the 10-year Treasury note, and how does it affect your finances? AI chip stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA), fell across the board, and Big Tech names were little changed premarket after an artificial intelligence provision was stripped from President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" overnight. In a middle-of-the-night push to pass the megabill, Senate Republicans dropped the ban on state regulations of AI for a decade, which had gained support in Silicon Valley. The idea appeared to be dead after Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee turned against a compromise plan Monday evening. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reports: Read more here. From President Trump's tariffs to the Federal Reserve rate cut saga, the US stock market has just completed a roller-coaster first half of the year. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up 5% year to date, rebounding from its April slump after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced. But what should investors watch for in the second half of 2025? Here's a look at six key questions facing US stock investors at the start of the second half. Reuters reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban reports in today's Morning Brief: Read more here on how these stocks tell investors about stock trading in 2025. Earnings: Constellation Brands (STZ) Economic data: JOLTS Job Openings (May); ISM manufacturing (June); Construction spending (May); Dallas Fed services activity; S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (June) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Trump repeats Tesla subsidy threat after Musk bashes megabill Senate kills ban on AI regulation as it pulls all-nighter on tax bill Trump pulls back from big trade deals as deadline looms How Boeing, Walmart, and Tesla tell the stock story of 2025 6 questions for US stock investors as 2025's second half begins Homes are taking longer to sell in US market that once flourished Tesla sales drop over 60% in Sweden and Denmark Chinese AI chipmakers plan $1.7B IPOs thanks to US curbs Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Wall Street Journal
29 minutes ago
- Wall Street Journal
What Medicaid Work Requirements Mean for Enrollees
President Trump's tax-and-spending megabill seeks to implement a policy long championed by Republicans: work requirements for Medicaid beneficiaries. Policy analysts expect millions of people to lose coverage either because they won't bother to comply with the new rules or because they aren't able to keep up with the paperwork and other bureaucratic hurdles states will erect for proving eligibility.
