Fed 98% Likely To Leave Key Rate Intact After Latest Meeting Minutes
Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg
Federal Reserve officials are 98% likely to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at their next meeting in June after the central bank's latest monetary policy meeting minutes depicted economic conditions as highly uncertain.
There is a 97.8% chance that Fed policymakers will decide to keep the target range for the fed funds rate, which has significant implications for broader borrowing costs, intact at their next policy meeting on June 18, according to data provided by the CME FedWatch Tool following the release of the latest policy minutes.
The graphic below provides a screenshot of the aforementioned tool taken close to 8 p.m. EST:
This tool shows the likelihood that Fed officials will keep the benchmark rate unchanged at their ... More next policy meeting.
Such policy decisions can have implications for a wide range of risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks. Many of these assets do not make regular payments, and as long as the benchmark rate stays high, it will place upward pressure on the yields paid by many fixed-income financial instruments.
This set of circumstances could potentially reduce demand for the aforementioned risk assets.
The minutes of the central bank's latest policy meeting, which involved members of both the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee, emphasized that the financial institution's officials might encounter challenging circumstances that could complicate their ability to make policy decisions.
'Participants noted that the Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proves to be more persistent while the outlooks for growth and employment weaken,' the minutes stated. 'Participants observed, however, that the ultimate extent of changes to government policy and their effects on the economy was highly uncertain.'
At the same time, the policymakers did speak to strength in the job market, stating that 'Participants further noted that the unemployment rate had stabilized at a low level and that labor market conditions had remained solid in recent months.'
'In this context, and amid a further increase in uncertainty about the economic outlook and a rise in the risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation, all participants viewed it as appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent,' the minutes continued.
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Forbes
13 minutes ago
- Forbes
LA Protests: National Guard Troops Have Detained Protesters (Live Updates)
The National Guard has at times detained protesters in its deployment to Los Angeles, an official said Wednesday, as demonstrations against Immigration and Customs enforcement raids spread to other major cities. Protesters face members of the California National Guard and US Customs and Border Protection agents ... More in Los Angeles. June 11, 4:30 p.m. EDTMaj. Gen. Scott Sherman of the National Guard told reporters federal troops have made brief detainments of protesters in Los Angeles before handing them over to law enforcement for arrests, adding about 500 National Guard troops have been trained to assist immigration operations, the Associated Press reported. 5 a.m. EDTAn LAPD spokesperson told the Los Angeles Times they arrested 25 people for violating the curfew in the city's downtown area on Tuesday night. In a post on X on Tuesday night, the agency said 'multiple groups' were continuing to 'congregate on 1st St between Spring and Alameda' and added 'Those groups are being addressed and mass arrests are being initiated.' 2.30 a.m. EDTTexas Gov. Greg Abbott said he will deploy the Texas National Guard across several parts of his state 'to ensure peace & order,' as protests against ICE are planned in parts of San Antonio on Wednesday. In an X post, Abbott wrote: 'Peaceful protest is legal. Harming a person or property is illegal & will lead to arrest.' June 10, 11.45 p.m. EDTIn a televised address on Tuesday evening, Newsom blasted Trump and described him as 'a president who wants to be bound by no law or constitution, perpetuating a unified assault on American traditions.' Newsom said, 'California may be first, but it clearly won't end here,' adding that other states and eventually democracy itself were 'next.' The governor added: 'Democracy is under assault right before our eyes — the moment we've feared has arrived.' Newsom also hit out at Trump for pardoning the perpetrators of the January 6 Capitol riots, saying: 'Trump, he's not opposed to lawlessness and violence as long as it serves him. What more evidence do we need than January 6th.' 11.30 p.m. EDTA significant portion of downtown Los Angeles is under a curfew, which was announced earlier in the evening by the city's Mayor Karen Bass, who said the restriction will be in effect from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m. local time. Bass said she has introduced to the curfew 'to stop bad actors who are taking advantage of the President's chaotic escalation,' and added: 'Law enforcement will arrest individuals who break the curfew, and you will be prosecuted.' 4:56 p.m. EDTU.S. District Judge Charles Breyer turned down Newsom's request for an emergency ruling that would have blocked federal troop deployment in Los Angeles, giving Trump until Wednesday at 2 p.m. EDT to file a response to Newsom's lawsuit (Newsom can file his response to Trump by Thursday at 12 p.m. EDT). 4:47 p.m. EDTThe Trump administration asked the judge to reject Newsom's request and allow it to respond by Wednesday, calling Newsom's attempt to block the deployment of federal troops 'legally meritless' and saying it would jeopardize the safety of Homeland Security personnel and interfere with the government's ability to carry out operations. 2:20 p.m. EDTNewsom and California Attorney General Rob Bonta, in a filing at the U.S. District Court for Northern California, requested the federal judge quickly block the Trump administration's deployment of the National Guard and Marines to Los Angeles, arguing the order is 'unlawful' as there 'is no invasion or rebellion' in the city and asking the judge to act by 4 p.m. EDT 'to prevent immediate and irreparable harm.' 11:30 a.m. EDTInterim Defense Department comptroller Bryn MacDonnell told the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense the cost of sending federal troops to Los Angeles was estimated at $134 million, 'which is largely just [temporary duty assignment] costs, travel, housing, food, et cetera.' 10:44 a.m. EDTHouse Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said Newsom should be 'tarred and feathered' for how he has handled the protests, in response to a question about calls for the governor's arrest, provoking a response from Newsom, who said Johnson gave a 'fitting threat given the GOP want to bring our country back to the 18th Century.' 8:27 a.m. EDTIn a Truth Social post, Trump claimed Los Angeles 'would be burning to the ground right now' if he didn't deploy the National Guard to the city and appeared to reference wildfires that destroyed thousands of homes earlier this year, suggesting city and state permits are 'disastrously bungled up and WAY BEHIND SCHEDULE' to rebuild. About 700 active-duty Marines could start arriving in the Los Angeles area as soon as Tuesday, defense officials told CBS and the BBC, after a spokesperson for U.S. Northern Command told the New York Times the troops would arrive in the city overnight. 7:30 a.m. EDTSecretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will participate in the first of a series of congressional hearings he is scheduled to face this week, where he is expected to be grilled about the deployment of the Marines in Los Angeles—he will appear before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense on Tuesday. Hegseth was the first Trump administration official to suggest the deployment of active duty Marines to tackle the protests in an X post. 4 a.m. EDTThe Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, on Tuesday addressed the incident involving Australian news reporter Lauren Tomasi, who was struck on her leg by a rubber bullet while covering the protests on Sunday, saying the incident was 'horrific' and claimed footage showed that police had 'targeted' the journalist. Albanese said he has raised the matter with the Trump administration, and added: 'We don't find it acceptable that it occurred, and we think that the role of the media is particularly important.' 3 a.m. EDTThe San Francisco Police Department issued a statement about the demonstrations taking place in the city in support of the Los Angeles protests and said: 'Thousands of people participated in today's demonstrations, which were overwhelmingly peaceful.' However, the police arrested 'multiple individuals' at the end of the night 'two small groups broke off' and allegedly 'committed vandalism and other criminal acts.' 1:30 a.m. EDTAccording to the U.S. Northern Command, the 700 Marines being deployed in Los Angeles are from the 2nd Battalion of the 7th Marines Regiment, 1st Marine Division, and they will 'seamlessly integrate' with the 1700 California National Guard unit deployed to protect 'federal personnel and federal property in the greater Los Angeles area.' 12:40 a.m. EDTThe San Francisco Chronicle reported that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem wrote a letter to Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth on Sunday, asking him to order the military to detain or arrest 'lawbreakers' in Los Angeles. Legal experts cited by the report said Noem's letter may be attempting to circumvent federal laws, which prevent the military from participating in domestic law enforcement, by invoking the Insurrection Act. 12 a.m. EDTIn an interview with CNN, Trump's border czar Tom Homan defended the troop deployment plan and when asked about the role the Marines will play, he said: 'It all depends on the activities of these protesters – I mean, they make the decisions.' 'We don't know what's going to happen tonight – it seems like at night, the crowds get bigger, the violence be well prepared for the military here to protect government property and protect officers' lives,' Homan added. Earlier on Monday, LAPD chief Jim McDonnell said 'The possible arrival of federal military forces in Los Angeles — absent clear coordination — presents a significant logistical and operational challenge for those of us tasked with safeguarding this city.' June 9, 11.30 p.m. EDTNewsom criticized the move to deploy Marines, saying the 'The Secretary of Defense is illegally deploying them onto American streets so Trump can have a talking point at his parade this weekend.' The governor said the state would sue to stop what he described 'a blatant abuse of power,' as he urged Courts and Congress to 'act.' 4 p.m. EDTUp to 700 Marines from a battalion based out of Twentynine Palms, California, were mobilizing to respond to the protests, according to ABC News, and are expected to deploy to the city within 24 hours. The Marines will aid the more than 2,000 members of the National Guard Trump deployed to Los Angeles, according to CNN. 2 p.m. EDTBonta announced he is filing a lawsuit against Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, alleging Trump's order to deploy the National Guard to Los Angeles was 'trying to manufacture chaos and crisis on the ground for his own political ends' while federalizing the National Guard 'is an abuse of the President's authority under the law.' Bonta claims the deployment deprived California of emergency response resources, infringed on Newsom's authority and violates the state's 'sovereign right to control and have available' the National Guard. 9:40 when asked about Newsom daring Homan to arrest him, said he 'would do it if I were Tom—I think it's great,' claiming Newsom is 'grossly incompetent.' Earlier on Monday, Homan told Fox News that while 'no one's above the law,' there was 'no discussion' about arresting Newsom. 9:40 a.m. EDTWaymo removed vehicles from the downtown Los Angeles area and suspended service 'out of an abundance of caution' following guidance from the Los Angeles Police Department, though the robotaxi firm noted it was still operating in the greater Los Angeles region. At least six Waymo vehicles set ablaze Sunday and the company was in touch with the Los Angeles Police Department for an investigation, Waymo spokesperson Chris Bonelli told Forbes, as law enforcement warned burning lithium-ion batteries used in the cars release toxic gases, posing possible health risks, and to avoid the area. 8:54 a.m. EDTNewsom signaled he would sue Trump over his decision to send the National Guard into the state, alleging Trump 'flamed the fires and illegally acted.' June 9, 5 a.m. EDTAt least 60 people were arrested in San Francisco after police reportedly clashed with a group of protestors who gathered to show solidarity with the Los Angeles protestors and oppose the Trump administration's immigration crackdown and deployment of National Guard troops to quell protests. 4 a.m. EDTIn a post on his Truth Social platform Trump mentioned the LAPD's comments from the press conference about reassessing the situation about bring in the National Guard, and wrote 'He should, RIGHT NOW!!! Don't let these thugs get away with this.' In follow up posts Trump wrote: 'Looking really bad in L.A. BRING IN THE TROOPS,' and 'ARREST THE PEOPLE IN FACE MASKS, NOW!' 3:30 a.m. EDTThe LAPD told reporters at a late night press conference that it had arrested 10 people on Sunday, bring the day's total tally to 27 after adding to the California Highway Patrol's 17 arrests. LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell told reporters that he was aware of the 'deep fear and anxiety' among the immigrant community, and said the department is 'committed to transparency, accountability, and treating every Angeleno with respect, regardless of their immigration status.' When asked about the need for National Guard presence, McDonnell told reporters, 'tonight this thing has gotten out of control' but he would have to know more about their intended role before making that determination and added: 'we got to make a reassessment.' 2:30 a.m. EDTLos Angeles Police Department said an 'UNLAWFUL ASSEMBLY' declaration has been issued 'for the area of the Civic Center part of Los Angeles' and said people with with 'Cell Phones in the received the alert.' 1:30 a.m. EDTAccording to the New York Times, a man tried to aim his van at protesters near a gas station in downtown Los Angeles, but it is unclear if any people were harmed. The LAPD later told the Times that it had detained the van driver, and noted 'multiple charges to follow.' 12:30 a.m. EDTThe Los Angeles Police Department has announced that gatherings at Downtown Los Angeles have 'been declared as an UNLAWFUL ASSEMBLY,' as it ordered people to 'leave the Downtown Area immediately.' June 8, 11.45 p.m. EDTIn an interview with MSNBC, Newsom dared the Trump administration to come and arrest him in response to earlier comments by the president's border czar Tom Homan threatened to go after any official who interferes the immigration crackdown. Newsom told MSNBC, 'Come after me, arrest me, let's just get it over with, tough guy...I don't give a damn, but I care about my community.' In his interview, Newsom once again accused Trump of 'putting fuel on the fire,' with his actions and confirmed that his state will file a lawsuit against the Trump administration on Monday. 11.30 p.m. EDTCalifornia's Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis told CNN that she expects state officials to file a federal lawsuit on Monday against the Trump administration's move to federalize and deploy the National Guard in Los Angeles. Kounalakis said the lawsuit will say that the president did not have the 'authority to call in the National Guard for 400 people protesting in a way that local law enforcement could clearly handle it.' Earlier in the evening, Newsom said he had made a formal request to the White House to 'rescind their unlawful deployment of troops in Los Angeles county and return them to my command,' The governor said: 'This is a serious breach of state sovereignty — inflaming tensions while pulling resources from where they're actually needed.' 4 p.m. EDTWhen asked by reporters whether he would invoke the Insurrection Act, the law that gives presidents the authority to deploy the military domestically, Trump said, 'Depends on whether or not there's an insurrection,' adding he does not think the Los Angeles protests are an insurrection, though he said there are 'violent people, and we're not going to let them get away with it.' Trump said he called Newsom and told him he had to 'take care' of the protests, otherwise he would 'send in the troops,' and he told a reporter who asked whether California officials who obstruct deportations would face federal charges: 'If officials stand in the way of law and order, yeah, they will face charges.' 1:30 p.m. EDTAbout 300 members of the National Guard have been stationed across Los Angeles so far, The New York Times reported, the first soldiers as part of the 2,000 Trump has promised to station across the city as more protests are expected to take place this afternoon. 1 p.m. EDTLos Angeles Mayor Karen Bass told the Los Angeles Times said she tried to talk to the Trump administration to 'tell them that there was absolutely no need to have troops on the ground here in Los Angeles,' stating the protests on Saturday were 'relatively minor' and 'peaceful,' with about 100 protesters. 3:22 a.m. EDTBass appeared to rebuff Trump's claim the National Guard did a 'great job' in the city, stating in a post on X that the National Guard had not yet been deployed at that time in Los Angeles, while praising Newsom and local law enforcement. 2:41 said in a late-night Truth Social post the National Guard did a 'great job' in Los Angeles, while slamming Newsom and Bass and the 'Radical Left' protesters and stating protesters will no longer be allowed to wear masks: 'What do these people have to hide, and why???' 12:14 slammed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for 'threatening to deploy active-duty Marines on American soil against its own citizens' as 'deranged behavior.' June 7The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department said it had arrested two people Saturday evening for alleged assault on a police officer, stating multiple officers had been injured by a Molotov cocktail, the Los Angeles Times reported. 10:34 exhibited 'violent behavior' toward federal agents and local law enforcement, the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department said in a statement, while clarifying it is not involved in federal law enforcement response and is instead focused on crowd and traffic control. 10:22 a post on X, Newsom said the federal government is taking over the California National Guard and deploying soldiers in Los Angeles solely to create a 'spectacle.' 10:06 announced in a post on X the Department of Defense is 'mobilizing the National Guard IMMEDIATELY to support federal law enforcement in Los Angeles,' stating Marines are standing by for deployment in case of violence. 9:17 House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced Trump would deploy 2,000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles to address 'lawlessness,' citing protests targeting immigration officers. Similar protests have spread to other cities across the U.S., including San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Seattle, Boston, Santa Ana, California, and parts of Texas, including Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Austin. At least 80 protesters were arrested in New York, while 15 were arrested in Philadelphia, more than a dozen were arrested in Austin and one was detained in Dallas. At least two police officers were injured during protests in Philadelphia. Los Angeles Metro Police officers stand on the road in front of city hall Tuesday night. People take part in an anti-ICE protest in New York City on Tuesday. Protesters walk by the Cloud Gate sculpture in Chicago on Tuesday. Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass will hold a press conference at 2 p.m. EDT Wednesday. Protests broke out Friday and Saturday in Paramount and Compton, cities adjacent to Los Angeles, over immigration raids conducted by ICE, during which the agency detained 44 immigrants Friday and 118 immigrants Saturday, the Associated Press reported. Police and protesters clashed over the weekend, according to local reports and videos on social media, with law enforcement using tear gas and flash grenades to break up the crowds while some protesters threw rocks and lit vehicles on fire. Glendale, California, announced Sunday the city had terminated an agreement with Homeland Security and Immigration and Customs Enforcement that allowed the agencies to house federal detainees at the city's police facility. Glendale officials said the move was 'a local decision and was not made lightly,' as the city 'recognizes that public perception of the ICE contract—no matter how limited or carefully managed, no matter the good—has become divisive.' Glendale's city manager opted to end the contract after 'careful evaluation of legal, operational and community considerations,' the city said, noting the decision was not 'politically driven.' Trump reportedly said in a memo he is invoking Title 10 of the U.S. Code on Armed Services, which allows the federal government to deploy the National Guard if the United States is 'invaded or is in danger of invasion by a foreign nation,' or if there is a 'rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States.' Vice President JD Vance said in a post on X on Saturday night the influx of immigrants, which he called 'Biden's border crisis,' amounts to an 'invasion,' rebuffing critics who have questioned whether Trump had the authority to deploy troops. Trump's move has faced some pushback from constitutional scholars. 'For the federal government to take over the California National Guard, without the request of the governor, to put down protests is truly chilling,' Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the University of California Berkeley School of Law, told the Los Angeles Times. The legal issues raised by Trump sending the National Guard to L.A. (Los Angeles Times)
CBS News
15 minutes ago
- CBS News
LA curfew for ICE protests curbs violence overnight as Trump and Newsom clash continues
Mayor Karen Bass said she hopes the first night of the downtown Los Angeles curfew can serve as an example, as tensions simmered Tuesday night while immigration enforcement officers and a military presence remain in place following a weekend of intense protests. "There was no looting, there was no violence, there was no vandalism," Bass told CBS News Los Angeles during an interview Wednesday morning. "So what I am hoping, after [Tuesday night], is that people understand that we are very serious about the curfew." The curfew was instated on Tuesday after days of protests against a string of immigration enforcement operations throughout Southern California. Bass said the curfew will be enacted daily until it's no longer deemed necessary. Between 8 p.m. and 6 a.m. each day, access is restricted downtown from the 5 Freeway to the 110 Freeway and from the 10 Freeway to where the 110 Freeway and 5 Freeway merge. The restricted area covers about one of the 502 square miles in the city of L.A. LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 10: Police officers mobilize to enforce a curfew after it went into effect during a protest against ICE raids on June 10, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. Tensions in the city remain high after the Trump administration called in the National Guard against the wishes of California Gov. Gavin Newsom and city leaders. Earlier today, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass enacted a curfew from 8 p.m. until 6 a.m., saying it was "to stop the vandalism, to stop the looting." / Getty Images In Bass's view, the curfew is more of a deterrent to those looking to commit violence or vandalism than the deployment of the National Guard. In recent days, Mr. Trump deployed 2,000 troops with the National Guard and 700 U.S. Marines to L.A. after testy protests over the weekend in downtown L.A. and the cities of Paramount and Compton. During those events, clashes between the L.A. Police Department and civilians were prominent, with officers oftentimes using non-lethal uses of force like tear gas and rubber bullets. Similar events continued downtown on Sunday, which Bass believes was brought on by Trump's decision. "I'm just perplexed to know what he is going to do with troops here that are not needed and the Marines," Bass said. "As far as I'm concerned, it is a provocative measure. I think it will contribute to disorder." Bass then reiterated that "disorder" in the city has been mostly limited to about five streets in downtown L.A. While speaking to CBS News Los Angeles, she implied that she believes there may be an ulterior motive to the deployment, other than safety measures. "I feel like we're a laboratory for an experiment that they're testing out in our city," Bass said. A power struggle ensues Gov. Gavin Newsom spoke to Californians on Tuesday night in a statewide address, where he challenged Mr. Trump's authority to deploy military forces to the streets of L.A. "Trump, without consulting California leaders, commandeered 2,000 of our state's National Guard members to deploy on our streets illegally and for no reason," Newsom said. "This brazen abuse of power by a sitting president enflamed a combustible situation, putting our people, our officers and even our National Guard at risk." Gov. Gavin Newsom issued a statewide address on Tuesday evening, where he spoke out against President Trump's decision to send the National Guard and U.S. Marines to Los Angeles. Office of Gavin Newsom Newsom filed a lawsuit against Mr. Trump on Monday, asking a judge to "prevent the use of federalized National Guard and active duty Marines for law enforcement purposes on the streets of a civilian city." On Tuesday, a judge denied a request for a temporary restraining order and instead scheduled a court hearing for Thursday, giving Mr. Trump's legal team time to respond. Mr. Trump has defended the decision to send military forces to L.A. by citing "incompetence" in local and state leaders, namely Bass and Newsom. In a post to his Truth Social platform on Wednesday morning, Mr. Trump said, "The INCOMPETENT Governor of California was unable to provide protection in a timely manner when our ICE Officers, GREAT Patriots they are, were attacked by an out of control mob of agitators, troublemakers, and/or insurrectionists. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!" In another post on Wednesday morning, Mr. Trump claimed that L.A. would be "burning to the ground right now, just like so much of their housing," referencing devastating wildfires that burned thousands of structures in Los Angeles and Altadena earlier this year. Newsom, in his address Tuesday, claimed that the "downward spiral" began after Mr. Trump sent in the National Guard, refuting the president's opinion that the military presence has prevented violence. The governor endorsed the prosecution of individuals who become violent during demonstrations. On Wednesday, federal prosecutors brought charges against two L.A. County men who allegedly threw Molotov cocktails at law enforcement during protests on Saturday and Sunday. ICE operations continue During the White House press briefing on Wednesday morning, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that 330 undocumented immigrants have been arrested in the Los Angeles area since June 6. 113 of those have prior criminal convictions, she claims. CBS News Los Angeles reached out to ICE on Wednesday to verify those claims. ICE redirected CBS News Los Angeles to the White House for verification. During her appearance on KCAL News Mornings on Wednesday, Bass said she believes that the overwhelming majority of those detained and arrested do not have a criminal record. She said ICE operations have continued throughout the week. On Saturday, Democratic U.S. Rep. Nanette Barragán, who represents parts of L.A.'s South Bay, told CBS News that ICE enforcement and removal operations are expected daily for the next 30 days in L.A. County. More demonstrations Tuesday's demonstrations appeared to be much smaller than those on previous days. Protesters briefly entered the southbound lanes of the 101 Freeway near downtown, but officers with the California Highway Patrol were quick to form skirmish lines. In a news release, the LAPD said hundreds were arrested on Tuesday night for various reasons. 203 people were arrested on suspicion of failure to disperse, police said, while 17 were arrested for curfew violations. There were three additional arrests for possession of a firearm, one for assault with a deadly weapon on a police officer and one for discharging a laser at an LAPD airship. On Wednesday morning, more small gatherings appeared outside the Federal Building downtown, although they appeared to be peaceful.
Skift
15 minutes ago
- Skift
Planners Fear Immigration Crackdowns Will Make Hotel Labor Shortages Worse: Exclusive Survey
The hospitality industry has struggled with a labor shortage since the Covid pandemic. Now, immigration enforcement and an anti-immigrant sentiment are adding a new layer of complexity. An exclusive Skift Meetings survey of U.S. planners shows that they expect to grapple with the effects of Trump-era immigration policies on their events, with growing concern about hotel staffing across the board. More than two-thirds of respondents (72%) said they expect hotel staffing to be affected in 2025–2026 because of immigration policies. Only 13% foresaw no impact. 'Hotel staffing never fully bounced back after the pandemic. We're still experiencing some gaps in service in certain markets and at certain properties,' said Kyle Jordan, director of meetings at the Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences (INFORMS). Staffing issues are being felt at more than hotels. 'Challenges extend to other key partners like AV providers and vendors that support our meetings,' said Jordan. 'While it's hard to predict the full impact, I would expect that deportation activity could further strain staffing in some destinations.' Concerns stem not just from general staffing shortages but also the effect of revived immigration enforcement policies. 'The main issue is that for many workers in hotels, while they may be legal immigrants, the feeling toward immigrants in general has turned toxic,' said Mark Phillips, CEO of LamontCo. 'No one wants to live and work in such an environment or put families through it, so over time we will see less available even legal immigrant workforces. It already appears to be happening in several cities.' ICE Raids and Protests Exacerbate Immigration Issues In Los Angeles, several days of protests followed large-scale immigration raids by ICE. Protests have spread to other U.S. cities, including Atlanta, Chicago, Washington, D.C, and New York City. a'The hospitality industry relies heavily on immigrant labor especially in back-of-house roles like housekeeping, food and beverage service, and maintenance. Stricter immigration enforcement, increased deportations, and general anti-immigration rhetoric have created fear and uncertainty among these workers, not to mention ICE raids, and I-9 audits. This leads some to leave the industry or self-deport, reducing the labor pool, making it even harder for hotels to fill critical positions,' said Robert Kraus, founder of Small Conferences. Kraus added that there are concerns about the future of the H-2B visa program and similar initiatives. 'There's also a worry that H-2B visas and other temporary worker programs will be curtailed plus general apprehension on potential workers to risk coming to the U.S. just to be told they can't enter or later be sent home only after a short amount of time. This could easily limit the number of foreign workers applying, which is critical for meeting seasonal demands of resorts and other hospitality businesses.' Labor shortages have already disrupted event logistics.'In several cases, my groups suffered through multi-hour lunch services because the hotel restaurant kitchen could not keep up with demand,' he said. Legal Compliance Doesn't Eliminate Anxiety Michael Dominguez, president and CEO of ALHI, argues that deportation is not necessarily a direct impact to hotel staffing. 'It has been required by law for any employee to complete an I-9 form, which verifies legal status and requires documentation,' said Dominguez. 'Any company or hotel not doing that is in violation of Section 274A of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1986. Everyone working in a hotel needs documentation, or they are breaking the law.' Still, legal status does not erase worker anxiety, said Melanie Nathan, human rights advocate and executive director of the African Human Rights Coalition. 'I know people who are perfectly legal and who have filled in those I-9's who are too scared to go to work. They are standing back to try and ride out what they feel like is a storm. Some fear they might get picked up in workplaces where there are likely to be raids.' Guest Services and Sales Take a Hit The staffing crunch is also affecting guest experience and hotel revenue. 'Daily housekeeping is no longer a given. There are hotels where it is now every other day or on request,' said Akshar Patel, VP of corporate strategy and development at eShow Event Management Solutions and a hospitality expert. Beyond guest services, the staffing crunch is slowing business development efforts. 'A staffing shortage on the sales side is delaying RFPs,' said Patel. Andrea Milrad Heilweil, VP of sales and marketing at The Hutton Group, agrees. 'I have found that since Covid I have to be much more proactive with follow-up. Between people furloughed, laid off, or leaving the industry altogether, RFP responses, requests for contracts, setting up site visits, and general communication have been delayed.'
