IOT Stock: How To Trade Samsara Ahead Of Its Earnings?
CHONGQING, CHINA - JUNE 01: In this photo illustration, the logo of Samsara Inc. is displayed on a ... More smartphone screen, with the company's latest stock market chart visible in the background, reflecting recent trading activity and investor sentiment, on June 01, 2025, in Chongqing, China. (Photo Illustration by)
Samsara (NYSE:IOT), a cloud-based IoT firm, is set to report its earnings on Thursday, June 5, 2025. For traders driven by events, analyzing how the stock has historically behaved in response to earnings announcements can be quite enlightening. Since 2022, Samsara has recorded a positive one-day return 62% of the time after results are released, with a median increase of 14.7% and a maximum single-day positive return of 27.9%.
While the actual results against consensus will ultimately dictate the outcome, utilizing these historical trends could potentially tilt the odds in your favor. Two primary strategies exist: you can either comprehend the historical probabilities and place your position prior to the earnings release, or analyze the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are published to inform your subsequent actions.
According to current consensus estimates, analysts anticipate earnings of $0.06 per share on revenues of $351 million. This contrasts with earnings of $0.03 per share on revenues of $281 million in the same quarter last year.
From a fundamentals standpoint, Samsara currently possesses a market capitalization of $26 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company has generated $1.2 billion in revenue. However, it recorded an operating loss of $185 million and a net loss of $155 million during that timeframe.
Nonetheless, if you're looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative—having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its establishment. Additionally, see – Merck Stock's Ticking Keytruda Time Bomb
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Further data on the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are compiled along with the statistics in the table below.
IOT 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
A relatively less risky strategy (though not effective if the correlation is low) involves examining the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identifying a pair with the highest correlation, and executing the corresponding trade. For instance, if the 1D and 5D show the strongest correlation, a trader may take a "long" position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.
IOT Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Occasionally, peer performance can affect post-earnings stock reactions. In fact, the pricing may begin prior to the earnings announcement. Below is some historical data on the previous post-earnings performance of Samsara stock compared to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before it. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns are also represented by post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
IOT Correlation With Peer Earnings
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all 3: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering robust returns for investors. Additionally, if you're seeking upside with a smoother experience than holding an individual stock like Samsara, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its inception.
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