What to Know About Bolivia's Presidential Election
The election comes amid an economic crisis, with many voters frustrated with the socialist project that once drew broad support.
For two decades, Bolivian politics have been defined by the Movement for Socialism party, known by its Spanish acronym, MAS, led by Evo Morales, a former union leader. Mr. Morales was elected in 2005 as Bolivia's first Indigenous president in a nation long dominated by a wealthy, white elite.
But this year, two right-wing politicians — a center-right businessman, Samuel Doria Medina, and a conservative former president, Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga — are leading the polls. In a crowded field of eight, neither is expected to win a majority of votes, most likely forcing a runoff in October.
Here is what to know as Bolivians head to the polls.
Why is this election important?
This is the first time since 2002 that Mr. Morales or a Morales stand-in will not be on the ballot.
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Bolivia election could see lurch to right as once-dominant party's time runs out
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Polls point to a potential runoff between two rightwing candidates: the centre-right business tycoon and former planning minister Samuel Doria Medina, 66, followed closely by Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga, 65, a rightwing former president who briefly led the country in 2001 after the resignation of the former dictator Hugo Banzer. The deeply unpopular current president, Luis Arce – a former finance minister under Morales who wrested control of Mas from his former mentor – opted not to seek re-election and instead nominated his 36-year-old minister of government, Eduardo del Castillo. Unlike previous elections in which Morales and then Arce secured outright first-round victories with over 50% of the vote, Del Castillo is now polling below 3%, the minimum threshold for a party to remain eligible to contest future elections. Related: Plotting a comeback, Bolivia's ex-leader defies arrest warrant in jungle hideout 'Arce will go down in history as the one who buried the 'father', seized the party and, in all likelihood, led it to its end,' said the political and economic analyst Gonzalo Chávez Alvarez, a professor at the Universidad Católica Boliviana. Although polling in Bolivia has historically proved unreliable, the prospect of a party that was once hegemonic now teetering on the brink of oblivion is anything but trivial. 'I can bet we won't lose our legal status,' Arce told the Guardian late on Thursday, arguing that polls failed to predict his first-round victory in 2020. Even so, the president showed little confidence in any surprise from the left and said he would respect the result if the right won. 'If they are democratically elected, why not accept it?' he said. 'And we will mobilise to resist, to be the opposition, of course.' 'I had high hopes for this government but now I only feel disappointment,' said Pablo Quispe, 55, who has sold hats for the past 25 years in a street market in El Alto – a booming high-altitude city near La Paz that was once a Mas stronghold. After years of prosperity driven by a natural gas boom, reserves dwindled during the final years of Morales's presidency, triggering an economic crisis that has deepened ever since. 'The gas that should have sustained the country for much longer – and then generated resources to be invested in other sectors, diversifying the economy – wasn't used that way,' said Alvarez. Under Arce, the economy has deteriorated further: by July 2025, annual inflation had reached 24.8%, the highest level since at least 2008. Just as Bolivia celebrates 200 years of independence, there are shortages of fuel and US dollars, leading to scarcities and long queues even for bread. Related: Deadly clashes over Morales candidacy deepen Bolivia crisis in election run-up 'Everything is more expensive, and we're barely getting by,' said Quispe, who previously voted for Mas but now plans to vote for Medina because 'the left just isn't working any more'. Leticia Guarachi Padilla, a 35-year-old leftist entrepreneur who runs a small business installing blinds and curtains, plans to spoil her ballot in protest over Morales's exclusion from the race. The first Indigenous president in Bolivia's history and the country's longest-serving leader, from 2006 to 2019, Morales was barred by the constitutional court, which ruled that he has already exceeded the two-term limit, and the electoral court, which has argued that his party is not formally registered. Since October, he has remained entrenched in central Bolivia, where hundreds of coca farmers have prevented police from executing an arrest warrant issued against him over allegations that he fathered a child with a 15-year-old while in office. In recent weeks, Morales has urged supporters to cast blank votes – claiming that if the number of spoiled ballots exceeds the share won by the top candidate, it would mean he had won. The highest-polling leftwing name is that of Andrónico Rodríguez, a 36-year-old senator, polling third to fifth. Once seen as Morales's natural heir due to his Indigenous roots and leadership in the coca growers' union, Rodríguez was labelled a traitor by his former mentor after deciding to launch his own candidacy and has seemed unable to rally support from the fragmented left. 'I voted for Evo every time he ran, and I don't regret it because he promoted structural changes that favoured the poorest,' said Padilla, who acknowledged the former president's 'problems', including 'his relationships with underage girls and the fact that he sees himself as a saviour, driven more by ego'. But she still believes he should have run. 'Voting for Doria or Quiroga means voting for imperialism and for the US to retake control of Bolivia,' she said. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up, a second round will be held on 19 October, which would be unprecedented in the country's history. Doria Medina and Quiroga are running for the fourth time, but still present themselves as political outsiders. Both advocate spending cuts as their main strategy to tackle the economic crisis. Quiroga says he would prioritise relations with the United States, while Doria Medina has promised to restore the supply of dollars and fuel within 100 days. His campaign slogan is '100 días, carajo' (100 days, dammit), a reference not to the Argentine president Javier Milei's libertarian rallying cry 'Viva la libertad, carajo!' (Long live freedom, dammit!), but to the 2005 plane crash Doria Medina survived, after which he said: 'Carajo, no me puedo morir' (I can't die, dammit!). Riding a motorbike decorated with campaign flags, automotive engineer Juan Pablo Rodríguez, 28, attended Doria Medina's final rally in La Paz on Tuesday with his wife, Michelle López, also 28, and their one-year-old daughter. 'Samuel can fix the crisis because he's a great businessman,' he said. One of Bolivia's wealthiest men, with a fortune in cement, hospitality and fast food, Doria Medina told the Guardian that if elected, he plans to restore the Plaza Murillo clock to its original, clockwise direction: 'Rationality will return, at last.' The current clock, he said, symbolised a country 'moving backwards'. The clock – with the number 12 still at the top, but with hands turning to the left to count the hours – was installed in 2014 on the initiative of David Choquehuanca, then foreign minister under Morales and now vice-president under Arce. He claimed it was a way to affirm Bolivia's identity as a 'southern nation', arguing that a southern hemisphere sundial shadow moves left. But physicist Francesco Zaratti, an emeritus professor at the Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, has long argued the clock 'makes no scientific sense', noting that in Bolivia the shadow can sometimes move right. 'When we have a new president, I bet it'll be one of the first things to go, as a symbolic end to Mas's 20-year cycle in power,' said Zaratti. Grover Quispe Lima, 35, looks at the clock every day as he sells maize to feed the hundreds of pigeons in Plaza Murillo. He has been walloped by the crisis, with maize prices rising from 120 (£13) to 200 (£21) bolivianos in a year. 'To me, it's irrelevant whether the clock moves backwards or forwards – the only thing that matters is that the next president improves our country,' he said. Solve the daily Crossword
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That is because Bolivia uses two counts: a quicker one, based on photos of each ballot sent to a data-processing centre, and the slower definitive one, where every vote is publicly counted and scrutinised at polling stations before entering the system. The court has up to seven days to release the official results. As neither secured more than 50% of the vote, or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up, a second round will be held on 19 October. Like the first round, the run-off campaign is expected to be dominated by the economic crisis – the worst in four decades – with shortages of dollars and fuel and rising inflation. Deeply unpopular president Luis Arce, of Mas, chose not to seek re-election and instead put forward his interior minister, 36-year-old Eduardo del Castillo, who won just 3.15% of the vote. It is a paltry share compared with the more than 50% that had secured first-round victories for Arce and former president Evo Morales in the past – but just enough for the party to avoid losing its legal status, as the threshold is set at 3%. According to the preliminary count, 19.1% of ballots were null and void – far above the historic average in Bolivian elections, which has typically been below 5%. Bolivia's first Indigenous leader, Morales had spent recent weeks urging his supporters to cast null and void votes in protest against rulings by the constitutional and electoral courts that blocked him from seeking a fourth term. Business tycoon Samuel Doria Medina, 66, who had led polls for much of the campaign, ended up third with 19.89% of the vote. Doria Medina acknowledged his defeat and announced that he would back Paz Pereira in the run-off. In the Bolivian press, analysts suggested one possible advantage for Paz Pereira was that the campaign battle in recent weeks had been concentrated between Quiroga, Doria Medina and the left, leaving the senator outside the main line of attacks – or even of fake news campaigns. Also, polls indicated there were still large numbers of undecided voters before election day. The highest-placed leftwing candidate was Senator Andrónico Rodríguez, 36, who left Mas to run with a small coalition. Having once polled as high as third, he eventually finished fourth with just over 8%. More than 2,500 national and international observers, from bodies including the European Union and the Organisation of American States, monitored the vote and were expected to publish their preliminary reports in the coming days. During the day, they said polling had proceeded normally. According to the electoral court, the election took place without problems, apart from some 'isolated incidents.' One of them involved Rodríguez. As he voted in Entre Ríos, a Morales stronghold about 50 miles from where the former president remains entrenched, the 36-year-old senator was booed and pelted with stones by what he described as 'a small group of extremists identified as supporters of Morales.' Rodríguez had to be escorted by a member of the armed forces to cast his vote. He was not injured. Once seen as Morales's natural heir due to his Indigenous roots and leadership in the coca growers' union, the senator was called a traitor for launching his own candidacy. Wanted on an arrest warrant since October for allegedly fathering a child with a 15-year-old, Morales voted in Villa 14 de Septiembre, about 25 miles from the tiny village where hundreds of coca growers have prevented police and the army from detaining the former president. Morales denies having committed any crime and claims the case is part of a plan by the current government to destroy him politically. President Arce, who served as Morales's finance minister before becoming his main rival, cast his vote in La Paz and said he would ensure 'an absolutely democratic transition' in November, when the next president is sworn in. Solve the daily Crossword
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Bolivia set to elect first non-left wing president in two decades
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