Iraq treads a tightrope to avoid spillover from Israel-Iran conflict
In Iraqi airspace, Iranian missiles and drones have crossed paths with Israeli warplanes, forcing Baghdad to step up efforts to avoid being drawn into the region's latest conflict.
But with Baghdad both an ally of Iran and a strategic partner of the United States, Israel's closest supporter, it may struggle to avoid the fighting spreading to its territory.
"There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq," said political analyst Sajad Jiyad.
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Japan Times
21 minutes ago
- Japan Times
Iran supreme leader sees his inner circle hollowed out by Israel
Iran's 86-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, cuts an increasingly lonely figure. Khamenei has seen his main military and security advisers killed by Israeli air strikes, leaving major holes in his inner circle and raising the risk of strategic errors, according to five people familiar with his decision-making process. One of those sources, who regularly attends meetings with Khamenei, described the risk of miscalculation to Iran on issues of defense and internal stability as "extremely dangerous." Several senior military commanders have been killed since Friday including Khamenei's main advisers from the Revolutionary Guard, Iran's elite military force: the Guard's overall commander, Hossein Salami, its aerospace chief, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who headed Iran's ballistic missile program, and spymaster Mohammad Kazemi. These men were part of the supreme leader's inner circle of roughly 15-20 advisers comprising Guard commanders, clerics, and politicians, according to the sources who include three people who attend or have attended meetings with the leader on major issues and two close to officials who regularly attend. The loose group meets on an ad-hoc basis, when Khamenei's office reaches out to relevant advisers to gather at his compound in Tehran to discuss an important decision, all the people said. Members are characterized by unwavering loyalty to him and the ideology of the Islamic Republic, they added. Khamenei, who was imprisoned before the 1979 revolution and maimed by a bomb attack before becoming leader in 1989, is profoundly committed to maintaining Iran's Islamic system of government and deeply mistrustful of the West. Under Iran's system of government he has supreme command of the armed forces, the power to declare war, and can appoint or dismiss senior figures including military commanders and judges. Khamenei makes the final decision on important matters, though he values advice, listens attentively to diverse viewpoints, and often seeks additional information from his counselors, according to one source who attends meetings. "Two things you can say about Khamenei: he is extremely stubborn but also extremely cautious. He is very cautious. That is why he has been in power for as long as he has," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington. "Khamenei is pretty well placed to do the basic cost-benefit analysis which really fundamentally gets to one issue more important than anything else: regime survival." The focus on survival has repeatedly been put to the test. Khamenei has deployed the Revolutionary Guard and its affiliated Basij militia to quell national protests in 1999, 2009 and 2022. While the security forces have always been able to outlast demonstrators and restore state rule, years of Western sanctions have caused widespread economic misery that analysts say could ultimately threaten internal unrest. The stakes could barely be higher for Khamenei who faces an escalating war with Israel, which has targeted nuclear and military sites and personnel with air attacks, drawing retaliatory Iranian missile fire. The five people familiar with Khamenei's decision-making process stressed that other insiders who have not been targeted by Israel's strikes remain important and influential, including top advisers on political, economic and diplomatic issues. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves during a ceremony in Tehran on June 4. | / VIA AFP-JIJI Khamenei designates such advisers to handle issues as they arise, extending his reach directly into a wide array of institutions spanning military, security, cultural, political and economic domains, two of the sources said. Operating this way, including in bodies nominally under the elected president, means Khamenei's office is often involved not only in the biggest questions of state but in executing even minor initiatives, according to the people with knowledge. His son Mojtaba has grown ever more central to this process over the past 20 years, the sources said, building a role that cuts between the personalities, factions and organizations involved to coordinate on specific issues, the sources said. A midranking cleric seen by some insiders as a potential successor to his aging father, Mojtaba has built close ties with the Guard, giving him added leverage across Iran's political and security apparatus, the people added. Ali Asghar Hejazi, the deputy of political security affairs at Khamenei's office, has been involved in sensitive security decisions and is often described as the most powerful intelligence official in Iran, according to the sources said. Meanwhile, the head of Khamenei's office, Mohammad Golpayegani, as well as former foreign ministers Ali Akbar Velayati and Kamal Kharazi, and ex-parliament speaker Ali Larijani, remain trusted confidants on diplomatic and domestic policies issues such as the nuclear dispute, the people said. The loss of the Revolutionary Guard commanders nonetheless decimates the top ranks of a military organization that Khamenei has put at the center of power since becoming supreme leader in 1989, relying on it for both internal security and regional strategy. While the regular army chain of command runs through the Defense Ministry under the elected president, the Guard answers personally to Khamenei, securing the best military equipment for their land, air and sea branches and giving their commanders a major state role. As he faces one of the most dangerous moments in the Islamic Republic's history, Khamenei finds himself further isolated by the recent losses other key advisers in the region as Iran's "Axis of Resistance" coalition has been hammered by Israel. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who was personally close to the Iranian leader, was killed by an Israeli airstrike in September last year and Syrian President Bashar Assad was overthrown by rebels in December.
Japan Today
2 hours ago
- Japan Today
Japan says it may evacuate its citizens from Iran as soon as Thursday
Smoke rises following an Israeli attack on the IRIB building, the country's state broadcaster, in Tehran, Iran, on Monday. The Japanese embassy in Iran said on Tuesday it was considering evacuating Japanese nationals by transporting them by bus to a neighboring country, as the Israel-Iran air war raged for a fifth straight day. "This could be carried out as early as Thursday, June 19," the embassy said on the foreign ministry's website. Earlier, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said the government was looking into various options for evacuating Japanese citizens, and the foreign ministry issued an evacuation advisory for Japanese nationals in Iran. © Thomson Reuters 2025.
Japan Today
2 hours ago
- Japan Today
Trump calls for Iran's 'unconditional surrender' as Israel-Iran air war rages on
By Parisa Hafezi, Jaidaa Taha and Maayan Lubell U.S. President Donald Trump called on Tuesday for Iran's "unconditional surrender" and warned U.S. patience was wearing thin, but said there was no intention to kill Iran's leader "for now", as the Israel-Iran air war raged for a fifth day. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said meanwhile that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could face the same fate as Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who was toppled in a U.S.-led invasion and hanged in 2006 after a trial. "I warn the Iranian dictator against continuing to commit war crimes and fire missiles at Israeli citizens," Katz told top Israeli military officials. Explosions were reported in Tehran and the city of Isfahan in central Iran, while Israel said Iran had fired more missiles towards it late on Tuesday, and air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and southern Israel. The Israeli military said it had conducted strikes on 12 missile launch sites and storage facilities in Tehran. Trump's comments, delivered via social media, suggested a more aggressive stance toward Iran as he weighs whether to deepen U.S. involvement. "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding," he wrote on Truth Social. "We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for patience is wearing thin." Three minutes later, he posted, "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" Trump's sometimes contradictory and cryptic messaging about the conflict between close U.S. ally Israel and longtime foe Iran has deepened the uncertainty surrounding the crisis. His public comments have ranged from military threats to diplomatic overtures, not uncommon for a president known for an often erratic approach to foreign policy. Trump said on Monday that he might send U.S. Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff or Vice President JD Vance to meet Iranian officials. The president said his early departure from the Group of Seven nations summit in Canada had "nothing to do" with working on a ceasefire deal, and that something "much bigger" was expected. Vance said the decision on whether to take further action to end Iran's uranium enrichment program, which Western powers suspect is aimed at developing a nuclear bomb, "ultimately belongs to the president". Britain's leader said there was no indication that the U.S. was about to enter the conflict. Trump met for 90 minutes with his National Security Council on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the conflict, a White House official said. Details were not immediately available. The U.S. is deploying more fighter aircraft to the Middle East and extending the deployment of other warplanes, three U.S. officials told Reuters. The move follows other deployments that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described as defensive in nature. The U.S. has so far only taken defensive actions in the current conflict with Iran, including helping to shoot down missiles fired towards Israel. REGIONAL INFLUENCE WEAKENS Khamenei's main military and security advisers have been killed by Israeli strikes, leaving major holes in his inner circle and raising the risk of strategic errors, according to five people familiar with his decision-making process. The Israeli military said on Tuesday it had killed Iran's wartime chief of staff Ali Shadmani, four days after he replaced another top commander killed in the strikes. With Iranian leaders suffering their most dangerous security breach since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the country's cybersecurity command banned officials from using communications devices and mobile phones, Fars news agency reported. Israel launched a "massive cyber war" against Iran's digital infrastructure, Iranian media reported. Ever since the Iran-backed Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, and triggered the Gaza war, Khamenei's regional influence has waned as Israel has pounded Iran's proxies - from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq. And Iran's close ally, Syria's autocratic president Bashar al-Assad, has been ousted. Israel launched its air war, its largest ever on Iran, on Friday after saying it had concluded the Islamic Republic was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and has pointed to its right to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, including enrichment, as a party to the international Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel, which is not a party to the NPT, is the only country in the Middle East believed to have nuclear weapons. Israel does not deny or confirm that. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stressed that he will not back down until Iran's nuclear development is disabled, while Trump says the Israeli assault could end if Iran agrees to strict curbs on enrichment. Before Israel's attack began, the 35-nation board of governors of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years. The IAEA said on Tuesday an Israeli strike directly hit the underground enrichment halls at the Natanz facility. The Iranian news website Eghtesadonline, which covers economic news, reported on Tuesday that Iran arrested a foreigner for filming "sensitive" areas at the Bushehr nuclear power plant for Israel's spy agency Mossad. OIL MARKETS ON ALERT Israel says it now has control of Iranian airspace and intends to escalate the campaign in the coming days. But Israel will struggle to deal a knock-out blow to deeply buried nuclear sites like Fordow, which is dug beneath a mountain, without the U.S. joining the attack, according to analysis echoed by Germany's leader. Israel's Katz said Fordow was an issue that will "of course" be addressed. Iran has so far fired nearly 400 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones towards Israel, with about 35 missiles penetrating Israel's defensive shield and making impact, Israeli officials say. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had hit Israel's Military Intelligence Directorate and foreign intelligence service Mossad's operational centre early on Tuesday. There was no Israeli confirmation. Iranian officials have reported 224 deaths, mostly civilians, while Israel said 24 civilians had been killed. Residents of both countries have been evacuated or fled. World oil markets are on high alert, following strikes on energy sites including the world's biggest gas field, South Pars, shared by Iran and Qatar. © Thomson Reuters 2025.
