MSU football: Ranking difficulty of games from easiest to hardest for 2025 season
MSU football: Ranking difficulty of games from easiest to hardest for 2025 season See which games our considered the toughest and easiest on the Spartans' 2025 schedule
Michigan State football is still months away from kicking off the 2025 season, but that doesn't mean we can't start to take a closer look at the upcoming slate of games on the schedule.
The Spartans will once again play a generally tough schedule in 2025, with ESPN's SP+ metrics ranking it the No. 26 toughest schedule in the country. That is considerably lower than last year's slate that featured matchups against three teams that reached the College Football Playoff.
With the schedule less top heavy this year, I have taken it upon myself to start reviewing the caliber of the Spartans' opponents this year, and rank the games based on difficulty for next year. Here is the ranking of the Michigan State football schedule from the easiest (No. 12) to the hardest (No. 1) game for the upcoming season:
No. 12: Youngstown State
Date: September 13 (game three of 12 on schedule)
Any time you play an FCS team, that's typically going to land as the easiest game on a ranking of this nature. So having Youngstown State as the lowest-ranked is a no-brainer, with Michigan State expected to be a four-plus touchdown favorite in this early season home game.
No. 11: Western Michigan
Date: August 30 (game one of 12 on schedule)
Western Michigan has played the Spartans tough over the years, but the transfer portal and NIL downstream effects have really hindered group of five programs like the Broncos. Because of that, Michigan State has opened as a 17.5-point favorite and should make relatively easy work of Western Michigan in the season-opener.
No. 10: Boston College
Date: September 6 (game two of 12 on schedule)
Boston College stole last year's matchup between these two teams out east, but this year I'm expecting things to go in the Spartans' favor at home. This is the beginning of the games becoming more difficult and more realistic for Michigan State to lose, but I also feel confident ranking this near the bottom of my list. If Michigan State doesn't open the season 3-0 this fall, they're going to be hard-pressed to reach a bowl game based on my schedule rankings.
No. 9: Maryland (at Ford Field in Detroit)
Date: November 29 (game 12 of 12 on schedule)
The Terps are one of the few teams that many rank behind the Spartans as we look ahead to next year. Combine that with the Spartans' getting a pretty heavy green-and-white presence at Ford Field in this one and I consider this by far the easiest Big Ten game on Michigan State's schedule. Ironically, it comes as the final game of the season and could either have no impact on the year or could have a ton of impact depending on how well Michigan State played throughout the season.
No. 8: UCLA
Date: October 11 (game six of 12 on schedule)
This game probably would have been even lower on my list before UCLA snagged Tennessee transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava out of the spring portal. That addition at the most important position certainly raises the Bruins and makes this a tougher game for Michigan State this fall. Still, I can't put UCLA ahead of most of the road trips on the Spartans' schedule this year due to the huge unknown of how good they'll be with their new star transfer quarterback.
No. 7: at Indiana
Date: October 18 (game seven of 12 on schedule)
Some are still high on Indiana entering this next season but I'm expecting a notable regression back to the mean for the Hoosiers in 2025. So that is a big piece of why this road game is listed in the bottom half of my rankings. Another nugget here that benefits the Spartans is the fact that Michigan State plays UCLA at home the week prior, while Indiana will be coming off a road trip to Oregon.
No. 6: at Minnesota
Date: November 1 (game nine of 12 on schedule)
Minnesota is simply always solid under PJ Fleck, and he has especially been a thorn in the side of Michigan State since he has taken over as the Golden Gophers' head man. This is a toss-up matchup at this point in the offseason, with the slight edge to home team -- but by November I may have a different opinion on this one depending on how well and healthy each team is entering this game.
No. 5: Michigan
Date: October 25 (game eight of 12 on schedule)
Michigan is a true wildcard for a list like this because if they can improve significantly on offense this year, then they'll probably be the No. 2 toughest game on the Spartans' schedule. But if phenom freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood isn't an instant star (which is my assumption), then it's a more winnable game for Michigan State this fall. So for now, this feels like the right spot in my rankings for this rivalry matchup -- especially since it is at Spartan Stadium this year.
No. 4: at Nebraska
Date: October 4 (game five of 12 on schedule)
Nebraska finally got the bowl-less streak monkey off their backs last season, and now appear to be in position for an even better year in 2025. Like the Spartans, a big indicator of success for Nebraska will be the progression of second year starting quarter Dylan Raiola. If he elevates his game in year two, the Cornhuskers will be a good darkhorse pick to make the College Football Playoff.
No. 3: at Iowa
Date: November 22 (game 11 of 12 on schedule)
Winning at Kinnick Stadium is so hard to do and I don't expect that to be any different this year. The Hawkeyes have the potential to be playing for something significant by the time these two teams meet in Iowa City, Iowa -- which would make this game even harder for the Spartans.
No. 2: at USC
Date: September 20 (game four of 12 on schedule)
Traveling out west to face a potentially very good team early in the season is the perfect recipe for a highly-ranked game on our list. The trip to Los Angeles will be the Spartans' first road game of the year and should be against an unbeaten Trojans team with plenty of juice. This will be a very tough game for Michigan State this fall.
No. 1: Penn State
Date: November 15 (game 10 of 12 on schedule)
Penn State enters the 2025 season as a true National Championship contender and is the only team on the Spartans' schedule right now that I would confidently pick to make the College Football Playoff. So while this game is at home for Michigan State, this is hands down the toughest game on the schedule and will be the largest roster talent gap of any game they play this year. With the game coming late in the season, maybe things will be different by the time these two teams play, but this is the only clear loss I have for Michigan State entering the 2025 season.
Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.
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