Political turmoil continues as Ishiba's fate hangs in the balance

Japan Times

2 days ago

With voters having delivered their verdict on the administration of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the spotlight is now shifting to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party — where some longtime aspiring leaders are cautiously working to consolidate their positions.
While several of the party's local chapters have issued formal demands for the executive leadership to resign, coupled with a growing sense that Ishiba can't remain as head of the party, the weakening of past factional ties is making it difficult for those opposed to the LDP president to join forces.
On Wednesday, former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi reportedly met with some of the lawmakers who had supported her unsuccessful bid against Ishiba for the party leadership last September. Later the same day, Takaichi met with former Prime Minister Taro Aso, who had worked to coalesce support around her candidacy during that leadership race.
'The public has shown us we can't win an election with you as prime minister,' Aso is said to have told Ishiba in an unusual meeting attended by two other former prime ministers — Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida — on Wednesday, according to several media reports Thursday.
However, Takaichi's ability to garner widespread support within the party might be affected by the defeat of conservative lawmakers such as Masaaki Akaike and Mio Sugita in Sunday's Upper House election. She had already lost some of her closest supporters in last year's Lower House election. The LDP's conservative camp also lost a number of veterans on Sunday, such as Masahisa Sato, the former head of the party's foreign affairs committee, and former Upper House Speaker Akiko Santo.
In addition, the bloc seems to be divided between Takaichi and another aspiring leader, former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, who was also unsuccessful in last year's party leadership race.
On the other hand, others who are likely also vying for the post — namely farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi — are constrained in their activities by their current roles in government.
Discussions over the next few weeks might offer some hint of prospects for the prime minister's future — though Ishiba seems to be in no rush to decide.
On Monday, the LDP is expected to formally kick off an assessment of the reasons behind its electoral defeat. Lawmakers will have the chance to let off steam and vent their frustration toward the party leadership — although the form that will take remains unclear at this stage.
After that, a short session of parliament will be convened to welcome the newly elected members of the Upper House and elect the chamber's speaker and the chairs of its committees. The thin margin of the electoral loss — the coalition is only three seats short of the 125 needed for a majority — leaves enough wiggle room for political maneuvering.
Unlike the session of parliament that opens after the dissolution of the Lower House, the upcoming session doesn't provide for a formal vote on the head of government. That means there's no formal procedure to force Ishiba out in parliament.
In August, a somber atmosphere will descend on the country as the 80th anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the end of World War II are marked. Ishiba, whose reflections on the conflict throughout his career are well known , is expected to take part in a number of related events.
However, it's still possible that an acceleration of political machinations in the coming weeks could cause further turmoil in the political center of Nagatacho by the Obon holidays in mid-August, when lawmakers traditionally head back to their constituencies, potentially raising the specter of another general election.