Fantasy Football: But what if you're right? — 3 players who could pay off if you're willing to draft them

Yahoo

3 hours ago

There's no greater feeling than watching a movie with a vindication plot reach its resolution.
The 'Us vs. the World' vibe sets in from the beginning. It almost feels personal. As if nobody believes you despite the 'clear' facts displayed on your screen. Will Smith has played the part well over his career. From Enemy of the State to I, Robot, we're almost rooting for something to happen, forcing more people to share our conviction. Some of our favorite draft picks require the same level of fortitude.
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We've been following the news all offseason. Everyone's seeing the same training camp clips. And yet, you're on an island. Your thoughts get dismissed. However, when it comes to these three players, you could make the case that if you're right, you've found the players that will help you win a fantasy football championship.
Christian McCaffrey (Yahoo ADP: 8.8)
Everybody knew what was coming as soon as Christian McCaffrey exited Week 13 in the second quarter.
First, it was bilateral Achilles tendinitis. McCaffrey rug-pulled fantasy managers by missing Week 1 despite insisting he'd have played just a few weeks prior. He then proceeded to burn a hole in fantasy rosters until his return in Week 10. And even in his three full games, McCaffrey didn't beat the 'still injured or too old' allegations.
Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 4.7% (2024), 18.1% (2022 and 2023)
Rushing Success Rate: 37.2%, 50.1%
Yards after the Catch per Reception: 5.8, 7.2
No 100-yard games (unless you count all-purpose). No touchdowns. Another injury. And McCaffrey turned 29 over the summer. I can see why drafters with a mid-to-late first-round pick might hesitate. I've seen enough clues to keep me clicking his name at the 1.08.
To be clear, my confidence doesn't come from him making a catch against a backup defender in camp. I mean, yes, it's cool. The beat the 49ers' social team tossed on it is dope, too. But it's the depth.
Air Yards per Target: 4.1 (2024), 1.9 (2022 and 2023)
Catch Rate: 81.3%, 80.4%
Yards per Route Run: 1.55, 1.56
HC Kyle Shanahan has deployed McCaffrey like a WR to force defenses to account for another pass-catcher downfield. Coincidentally, McCaffrey's receiving aDOT was at its peak in '24. While still earning nearly 20.0% of the targets (18.2%), the 'old' RB was operating as a primary option for Brock Purdy. And, relative to his past time in San Francisco, he was playing up to his standard. Now, let's spin this into what's coming in 2025.
Ricky Pearsall is the only healthy WR. RBs with fourth and fifth-round draft capital flank McCaffrey in the backfield. In other words, his path to opportunity as a rusher and receiver is clear. Plus, since San Francisco opted to wait until Day 3 to address their running game, I'm willing to bet on McCaffrey's health (and his potential to be a top-3 fantasy asset) versus letting him slip by in drafts.
Zay Flowers (Yahoo ADP: 61.9)
Let me guess. You're coming up on the 5/6 turn, and this glut of receivers is staring you in the face.
DJ Moore, 58.5 (ADP)
Courtland Sutton, 60.9
Zay Flowers, 61.8
Xavier Worthy, 62.8
George Pickens, 64.3
The mental gymnastics to push Flowers down are effortless (incorrect, but simple). Moore and Sutton are WR1s on their teams. Worthy and Pickens have the talent and situation to generate explosive plays. Meanwhile, Flowers is the third attraction of the Lamar Jackson show, featuring Derrick Henry. But then again, if I look at the Ravens' 'de facto' WR1, there are enough traits (and metrics) to justify his case for the role.
Two key takeaways here are volume and variance. Not only did Jackson look to Flowers 112 times last season (the most of any Baltimore pass-catcher), but it was all over the field. The second-year receiver hit a career high in slot snaps (38.0%) while bumping his receiving aDOT up to an average of 10.7 yards. OC Todd Monken was (and still is) looking for creative ways to get the ball in Flowers' hands.
However, we can't solely look at Flowers's opportunity relative to his teammates. We already know he's the top option. But when we compare his workload to those same four receivers drafted around him, the value starts to shine.
Target Share: 25.4%, 2nd
Targets per Route Run: 1st
Yards per Route Run: 1st
But I get it. You want explosive plays, too. Well, Sutton (21.9% explosive play rate) was the only WR out of that group with a higher rate of downfield catches (21.6%). We need receivers who have a genuine connection with their QB. Nobody earned more targets when their QB was under duress than Flowers. We've already acknowledged Jackson is one of the best passers in the league. Accordingly, we should be valuing his WR1 the same way.
Trevor Lawrence (Yahoo ADP: 129.9)
There's no other way to say it. After multiple letdowns each year, I wouldn't want to draft Trevor Lawrence either.
The only thing missing from Ian's video is the music from 'Yakety Sax.' Lawrence has been the poster child for the 'It's Always Something With This Person' campaign. He had to survive Urban Meyer as a rookie. Doug Pederson brought stability to the offense, but Jacksonville's free-agent spending netted them Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley, both of which have significant roles in the above compilation. Then, a shoulder injury knocked Lawrence out of the 2024 season.
If it's not Lawrence's play, then his receivers are at fault. If the pass game isn't clicking, it's the scheme. We'd be mad at Meyer or Pederson, but we can't draft them. Their names aren't on my roster in the QB slot next to just 9.4 points (Lawrence's Week 3 total). But after peeling back Lawrence's peripherals and projecting how he'll mesh with HC Liam Cohen, I'm looking at the Jaguars' QB1 as my late-round target.
2022: 7.4 (air yards per attempt), +1.4% (completion percentage over expected)
2023: 8.2, +0.9%
2024: 9.3, -1.0%
Completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is like grading passes on a curve. The farther downfield or toward the sideline, the higher the degree of difficulty. CPOE awards the passer for completing harder throws. But for Lawrence, his penchant for throwing intermediate or deep was (part of) his undoing. As his aDOT went up, his completion percentage dropped. However, if we look at Cohen's last QB, it's fair to project a shift in Lawrence's style.
While accruing the fourth-most dropbacks of any starter last year (651), Mayfield placed 66.7% of his passes in the short and intermediate area of the field. And this wasn't an accident. Mayfield had a 9.0 passing aDOT the year prior. It was by design. If left untouched, only Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Kyler Murray averaged fewer air yards per attempt. So, let's assume Lawrence relies on his receivers to do the heavy lifting. Luckily, both of his receivers have top-24 potential.
Travis Hunter averaged 4.3 yards after the catch per reception in his final year at Colorado, which ranked third in his class. Brian Thomas Jr. posted top-six marks amongst veterans as a rookie. And the Jaguars face the Panthers in Week 1. At worst, you have a viable streamer for the season opener. But, if I'm right, you've got a top-12 QB on your squad at a discount price.