‘Megaquake' that could kill 300,000 is coming, Japan warned
There is a 75 to 82 per cent chance that a massive Nankai Trough earthquake will happen off the Pacific coast in the next 30 years, a government panel said in January. Worst-case scenarios include 298,000 fatalities, 2.35 million buildings collapsing and damage worth $2 trillion (£1.4 trillion).
On Tuesday the government again endorsed a basic plan from 2014 to prevent a widespread catastrophe, but said the steps taken so far would reduce the death toll by only 20 per cent.
The state has now called for the implementation of several safety measures over the next decade to reduce the potential death toll by about 80 per cent. Shigeru Ishiba, the prime minister, told a government meeting: 'It is necessary for the nation, municipalities, companies and non-profits to come together and take measures in order to save as many lives as possible.'
The measures include strengthening homes in areas vulnerable to strong tremors and high tsunami waves. Better evacuation facilities will also be prepared.
The government is demanding annual progress reports giving updates on 200 sites earmarked for improvement.
The Philippine Sea plate is being thrust under the Eurasian plate along the 800km Nankai Trough. The tectonic feature has caused many earthquakes over the centuries and big ones happen roughly every 100 to 200 years. Magnitude 8.0 earthquakes along the trough in 1944 and 1946 left thousands dead and injured.
Although scientists cannot predict exactly when quakes will strike, many tourists are staying away from Japan on the advice of a manga artist who apparently predicted the magnitude 9.0 earthquake that devastated northeastern Japan in March 2011. More than 18,000 died.
Originally published in 1999, The Future I Saw by Ryo Tatsuki is based on the artist's dreams. The work was updated in 2021 and predicts the next disaster will occur on Saturday. It suggests that a massive seabed rift will open between Japan and the Philippines, generating tsunamis three times as tall as those in the 2011 quake, which reached as high as 40m.
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