Morgan Stanley names tech stock winner from One Big Beautiful Bill Act
Morgan Stanley has a brand new take on President Donald Trump's sweeping new tax law, and its impact on Big Tech could be huge.
With President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, tech stock investors are hunting for the best names to cash in on early.
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In this regard, Morgan Stanley sees healthy upside for Amazon () , Google () , and Meta Platforms () . But in a fresh note, it has singled out one company as a clear winner, backed by its unique exposure to AI, data centers, and long-term R&D.
It's not just about tax savings, but more about how that extra cash fuels the next leg of AI dominance.
One Big Beautiful Bill Act reshapes Big Tech's tax playbook
Since President Trump signed his massive tax bill, the regulatory landscape for Big Tech has shifted dramatically.
Front and center is that the law allows 100% immediate expensing for qualified production property.
In plain language, it allows businesses to fully deduct spending on data centers, chip fabrication plants, and AI hardware in the year of purchase.Naturally, that's a huge shot of free cash flow, spurring a rush to accelerate AI infrastructure builds.
The impact was immediate.
Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta have all looked to lock in write-downs and scale cloud capacity in the apparent gold rush.
The bill also sweetens the R&D tax credit, while boosting the semiconductor production credit to 35%, incentivizing domestic chipmaking.
On top of that, executive orders linked to the bill waive off environmental reviews under NEPA and the Clean Water Act for data center construction.
That adds another rudder or two for tech giants looking for quicker AI infrastructure development.
Nevertheless, the upshot comes at a steep price.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill could slash $4.46 trillion in tax revenue over a decade and add over $3 trillion to the national debt. Not to mention, it could also add new scrutiny on cross-border IP transfers, cooling global tech deals.
That said, with the earnings season heating up, experts say the bill's effects will start showing up in lower tax burdens, higher capex, and a new era of AI domination.
AI regulation freeze hands Big Tech a powerful edge
Tucked inside President Trump's massive tax law is a bold move.
That's a massive 10-year federal moratorium on any state-level AI regulations. It effectively wipes out a patchwork of local laws, replacing them with a uniform federal framework.Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Director Michael Kratsios feels the shift is critical in pushing the U.S. ahead in the AI race against China.
A uniform rulebook will accelerate nationwide deployment while protecting companies like Google and Microsoft from policy-related headwinds.
Nonetheless, the critics aren't sold.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and more than 250 state lawmakers warn that the moratorium effectively takes away consumer protections, while concentrating power in Silicon Valley.
Also, China's Premier Li Qiang has called for global AI governance, which goes against the U.S. go-fast model.
Consequently, the Senate struck the moratorium at the start of the month, meaning states still have the authority to enforce their respective AI laws.
Still, experts say the White House's July 24 'AI Action Plan' essentially revives the moratorium's spirit.
Layering the federal AI development funding on top of state‑level regulatory leniency opens the door for effectively pressuring non‑compliant states to pull back or risk losing grants.
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So in essence, we're seeing the administration using funding carrots and sticks to keep the regulatory playing field intact.
Morgan Stanley sees Amazon as biggest winner from One Big Beautiful Bill Act
The massive tax law marks a major turning point for Big Tech, and Morgan Stanley is calling out a clear winner.
In a new research note, analyst Brian Nowak says that President Trump's tax law will dramatically improve the free cash flow outlook for giants such as Amazon, Meta, and Google.
However, he feels that Amazon in particular is positioned to benefit the most.
Though Google and Meta will likely see meaningful FCF gains, up 5% and 22% by 2026, respectively, Amazon could unlock a humongous 30% jump, led by data center, logistics, and a burgeoning cloud footprint.
Amazon: a tax-fueled AI power play
Morgan Stanley's Brian Nowak predicts that Amazon could make $15 billion in incremental FCF between 2025 and 2027, plus another $11 billion in 2028.
That cash won't sit idle, though.
Rather than returning it all to investors, Nowak expects Amazon to reinvest heavily into its cloud behemoth, AWS, and retail innovation.
The goal is therefore to continue boosting its lead in generative AI, automation, and infrastructure.
Even reinvesting 50% of that cash could drive billions in savings and compound Amazon's cloud advantage and in its consumer delivery.
Nowak has a Buy rating on Amazon and a lofty $300 price target, which implies close to a 30% bump.Morgan Stanley names tech stock winner from One Big Beautiful Bill Act first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 28, 2025
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 28, 2025, where it first appeared.
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