Will markets wake up from the Taco bubble before it's too late?
'Liberation Day' , seemingly on the mere belief that US President Donald Trump always chickens out – otherwise known as
Taco – so no harm will be done in the end.
However, the Taco trade is based on a bubble. Collective self-deception can work for a while but only when there is enough money behind it. Despite recent talks to de-escalate, the
US-China trade war is still pushing the global economy to the brink. A looming recession and higher inflation will mean there is a lot less money available for speculation, especially for the Taco bubble.
The Taco trade has worked because three major fund management firms – BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street – control large swathes of the market. These firms have a vested interest in supporting their assets.
A lot of money is in circulation due to the US$8 trillion in
quantitative easing undertaken by the US Federal Reserve between 2008 and 2022. Moreover, quantitative easing policies are still taking place around the world, which means there is enough money to keep the bubble going. Taco is just another psychological fix to bring back speculative courage.
Trump would like to sell the recently concluded US-China
trade negotiations in London as a victory for Washington. He
talks about a 55 per cent tariff on China versus 10 per cent the other way round, and that rare earth minerals will soon flow to the US again.
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