NFL Quarterback Tiers 2025: Experts vote on Caleb Williams

New York Times

4 days ago

The past five days of, let's call them 'media vibes,' haven't been top-notch for Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams.
He finished Friday's joint practice against the Miami Dolphins with struggles in the red zone period. He didn't play in Sunday's preseason game. The passing offense was a mess in Monday's practice, which came hours after Mike Sando's annual 'Quarterback Tiers' was released, ranking Williams 23rd, near the bottom of Tier 3 — 17 spots below Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, who sits atop Tier 2.
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(We can add colleague Jon Greenberg's Tuesday story on Seth Wickersham's upcoming book 'American Kings: A Biography of the Quarterback.')
Fortunately, none of that should have any impact on what happens Sept. 8 on 'Monday Night Football' against the Minnesota Vikings. Well, unless the shaky practices are a harbinger.
There are myriad reasons Williams hasn't been automatic in camp. He's also had some really impressive days, giving him a 'stock: neutral' in my camp stock report, but Sando's tiers tell us that the league is playing wait and see. They don't know, and there are some doubters.
Caleb Williams
Bears
One general manager offered optimism that Williams' struggles with working quickly as a rookie can get fixed over time, comparing him to this week's joint practice opponent, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
'Maybe it is a little bit like Josh (Allen) early in his career, where he has so much good other stuff that you will live with some negative plays, and as he gets more snaps under his belt, that part will come,' the GM told Sando.
Allen is the north star for every fan base with a struggling rookie quarterback. Bears fans pointed to Allen's career arc when Justin Fields had his skeptics. Allen is no longer a unicorn. We've seen more QBs rally from bumpy beginnings.
One defensive coordinator told Sando that Williams' ability to get the ball out of his hands 'was the worst we played against.' That was a major issue last season, a function of subpar offensive line play, a scheme that didn't work and Williams' propensity to hold on to the ball too long.
A head coach said that Williams 'is not playing fast right now.' Another coach told Sando, 'You saw signs and ability, and I also think you saw signs and ability that scare you.'
No one questioned Williams' talent, but they all had questions. Another defensive coordinator had the comment that resonated most: The addition of head coach Ben Johnson should be the difference-maker.
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'I would not be shocked if the kid plays well. Ben is good,' he told Sando. 'He can adjust. I'm sure they will find a happy medium somewhere.'
Williams is far from the first first-round quarterback to be thrust into a difficult situation as a rookie. There are No. 1 picks, too, who have been in a tough spot, earned skepticism and then turned it around.
Recently, Bryce Young comes to mind. The 2023 No. 1 pick debuted in Tier 4 after his rookie season. He's one spot below Williams this year, jumping to Tier 3, after showing improvement late in Year 2. He even got a Tier 2 vote from an AFC team executive. Like Williams, Young's rookie season included an in-season coach firing.
Since we'll be talking about Lions quarterback Jared Goff a lot with Johnson calling plays, he's another example of a best-case scenario after a rough rookie season. After 2017, Goff ranked 32nd in QB Tiers, trailing the likes of Brian Hoyer, Paxton Lynch and Blake Bortles.
After one year with Sean McVay, Goff jumped to 19th and into Tier 3.
Goff's career took another turn when he was traded to Detroit and found himself 22nd, near the bottom of Tier 3 after 2021. After one year with Johnson as his play caller, Goff shot up to 15th. Now, he's eighth.
You can look at Goff and everything around him in Detroit and say that it won't happen here with Williams. Or you can see how much things progressed with him and Johnson and have hope for what it could mean for Williams.
Remember the vibes conversation at the top? While nothing that happened to Fields or Mitch Trubisky should have any bearing on Williams' future, it's understandable for fans' minds to turn to the last two Bears first-round QBs who had to switch offenses after one season.
What did that look like in QB Tiers? Trubisky debuted at 29th, in Tier 4, in 2018 after his rookie season under coach John Fox. He only moved up to 25th following the 2018 division title, but that was Tier 3. One offensive coordinator lauded Trubisky's leadership to Sando and saw improvement coming.
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Fields' rookie season landed him at the top of Tier 4 in 2022, with one coach telling Sando he was 'cautiously optimistic.' He moved up to Tier 3 in 2023 after putting up phenomenal rushing numbers in Luke Getsy's offense. When he got traded to Pittsburgh, he moved back to Tier 4, ranking 24th last summer.
Cautionary tales. That's all Trubisky — who will be in town this week with the Bills — and Fields are to anyone at Halas Hall. They're different quarterbacks and had different coaches. Johnson is supposed to do a better job of putting Williams in position to reach his potential. Williams should have a better offensive line than his two predecessors had, not to mention the receiving corps. The defense should be better than anything Fields experienced.
For now, the league is hesitant. Coaches, coordinators and executives have been wrong before, countless times.
Goff is the perfect example of why patience is required with this position. Throw Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith in there, too. In 2019, Allen received 36 votes for Tier 4. This year he had 47 votes for Tier 1.
Maybe it's hard to be patient when Daniels is at the top of Tier 2, Bo Nix is ranked 20th and Drake Maye — whose rookie-year coach was also fired — is one spot ahead of Williams. The No. 1 pick ranked fourth in his draft class.
That's why they play the games, right? We all get to see what Williams can do in Year 2 on the field, and what that'll mean for his QB Tier next summer.
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