Myanmar Military Ends State of Emergency to Prep for Election at Year's End

The Diplomat

2 days ago

Myanmar's military junta has lifted the state of emergency imposed following its coup more than four years ago, in anticipation of its planned election in December. The decision was announced by coup leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing during a meeting of the military-dominated National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) in Naypyidaw yesterday.
'The state of emergency is abolished today in order for the country to hold elections on the path to a multi-party democracy,' junta spokesperson Zaw Min Tun said in a voice message shared with the press, the AFP news agency reported. 'Elections will be held within six months.'
The state of emergency, which was first declared after the coup of February 1, 2021, and then renewed six times subsequently, was the legal basis by which Min Aung Hlaing, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, assumed full control over Myanmar's judicial, executive, and legislative functions. For some time, the regime has pledged to hold an election and transfer power back to a civilian government, a move that many independent observers and resistance groups have described as a 'fraud' designed to perpetuate the military's hold on power.
In preparation for the election, the State Administration Council (SAC) of Myanmar (the official name of the junta) has now been dissolved and replaced by the National Defense and Peacekeeping Commission, which will remain in power until the formation of a parliament and government after the planned elections. Under the military-drafted 2008 Constitution, a general election must be held within six months of the revocation of a state of emergency.
The military has also announced the formation of an 11-member commission led by Min Aung Hlaing to administer the election, according to state media. As The Irrawaddy reports, Min Aung Hlaing has stepped down as prime minister, a position that will now be held by Nyo Saw, a 'business supremo' and advisor to Min Aung Hlaing, under the caretaker government. Min Aung Hlaing will serve as the interim president. Aside from this, there was 'barely a reshuffle in the current cabinet,' The Irrawaddy reported, with only two ministries changing hands.
None of this will make much difference to who holds effective power in Myanmar, but yesterday's decision is a sign that Min Aung Hlaing is determined to hold his planned elections, whatever the conditions in the country.
During yesterday's meeting of the NDSC, Min Aung Hlaing repeated earlier announcements that the election will be held across several weeks in December 2025 and January 2026,' along the lines of independent Myanmar's first multiparty election, which was conducted in stages between June 1951 and February 1952.
The Myanmar military hopes the election will allow it to normalize its relations with the outside world, and create a means of resolving the civil war that has consumed much of the country since the coup of 2021. In essence, it is attempting to replicate the democratic 'transition' that began with the election of 2010, which handed power to a military-backed civilian government and initiated a rapid normalization of Myanmar's relations with the West.
However, resistance forces, including ethnic armed groups and the National Unity Government (in addition to most independent observers), have denounced the election plans as a piece of electoral sleight-of-hand designed to entrench the military's rule behind a civilian façade. Most popular political parties, including the National League for Democracy, which won both the 2015 and 2020 elections decisively, have been dissolved, while most independent press outlets have been shut down or forced into exile. In a statement yesterday, a U.N. spokesperson said that Secretary General António Guterres had expressed his concern 'over the military's plan to hold elections amid ongoing conflict and human rights violations, and without conditions that would permit the people of Myanmar to freely and peacefully exercise their political rights.'
However, the fact that the election will be held in stages is an admission of the difficulties posed by the country's current political situation. After four years of civil war, a considerable part of the country is now effectively outside its control, including large parts of Rakhine, Shan, Kachin, Karen, and Chin states, as well as parts of Mandalay and Sagaing regions. For this reason, a pre-election census conducted late last year could only be completed in 145 of the country's 330 townships – and this was according to the junta's own accounting.
'Given the current situation of the country, it will not be possible to conduct the election all at once; instead, it must be carried out in phases,' Min Aung Hlaing admitted during yesterday's meeting. But he added that the NDSC 'will carry out the election no matter what happens.'
To arm it with the means of crushing any resistance that might emerge, the SAC earlier this week passed a Law on the Protection of Multiparty Democratic General Elections from Obstruction, Disruption, and Destruction. These hold out harsh penalties, up to and including the death penalty, for anyone who 'disrupts' or 'obstructs' the election campaign or election process.
As I have suggested before, a 'successful' election might lead some countries to re-engage the military, but it is very unlikely to resolve the political grievances that are fueling the current conflict. As such, any transition that it initiates will likely end in a different version of the same political dysfunction.