The Social Security crisis is coming one year earlier than we thought
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Social Security uncertainty and policy changes are driving more people to file
With a significant rise in Social Security applications, retirees face financial decisions influenced by legislation and economic concerns in today's climate.
Scripps News
The Social Security shortfall date just moved a little bit nearer.
New federal projections, released on June 18, show that the combined Social Security trust funds will pay 100% of benefits until 2034 before becoming depleted. That date is one year earlier than the Social Security Administration reported a year ago.
'As in prior years, we found that the Social Security and Medicare programs both continue to face significant financing issues,' program trustees wrote in a summary of their 2025 annual report.
The Social Security Administration faces a funding crisis in the not-so-distant future. Trustees say the projected shortfall in retirement benefits has risen to $25.1 trillion through 2099, up from $22.6 trillion a year ago.
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays benefits to retirees and their families, is projected to pay total scheduled benefits until 2033, according to the new report.
'At that time, the fund's reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77% of total scheduled benefits,' the report states.
The separate Disability Insurance Trust Fund is fully funded through at least 2099, the agency reports.
The combined programs, however, can pay 100% of benefits only through 2034. At that point, the program's reserves would be depleted.
New Social Security shortfall dates alarm retirement advocates
Retirement advocates sounded alarm at the findings.
The new projections "show the trust fund for Social Security is going to be depleted one year sooner than was projected last year, which means that Social Security recipients may see a 19% reduction in their Social Security income one year sooner," said Myechia Minter-Jordan, CEO of AARP, in a statement. "Congress must act to protect and strengthen the Social Security that Americans have earned and paid into throughout their working lives. More than 69 million Americans rely on Social Security today and as America's population ages, the stability of this vital program only becomes more important."
Social Security faces a shortfall because the program spends more than it takes in. In 2024, the OASI Trust Fund cost $1,327 billion to administer, but income totaled only $1,224 billion, a shortfall of $103 billion.
The notion that Social Security faces a shortfall suffuses the national conversation about preparing for retirement. Older Americans wonder if their monthly checks will go down midway through their golden years. Younger Americans have doubled down on retirement savings, partly out of fear that Social Security won't fully support them.
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