GCC growth forecast raised to 4.4% amid oil rebound, diversification push: ICAEW

Arab News

8 hours ago

RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council economies are expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2025, up from an earlier forecast of 4 percent, as rising oil output and resilient non-oil sector activity offset global trade headwinds.
In its latest economic update, prepared with Oxford Economics, the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales said Saudi Arabia and the UAE will lead regional growth despite weaker crude prices and rising geopolitical uncertainty.
The revision comes amid stronger-than-expected gains in OPEC+ production and continued investment in infrastructure, tourism, and technology. In May, the International Monetary Fund said that the GCC region's economy will grow by 3 percent in 2025, driven by gains in the non-oil sector.
The analysis by ICAEW affirms the progress of the economic diversification efforts undertaken by GCC member states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, aimed at strengthening their non-oil sectors and reducing reliance on crude revenues.
Hanadi Khalife, head of Middle East at ICAEW, said: 'The GCC economies are showing remarkable adaptability amid shifting global trade dynamics.'
She added: 'Investments in tourism, technology, and infrastructure continue to pay dividends, strengthening resilience and laying the groundwork for long-term growth.'
The report noted Brent crude is expected to average $67.3 a barrel in 2025, increasing fiscal pressure across the bloc. Qatar and the UAE are likely to maintain budget surpluses, underscoring diverging fiscal positions within the region.
Scott Livermore, economic adviser at ICAEW and chief economist and managing director at Oxford Economics Middle East, said the upgraded GCC economic growth forecast was due to faster OPEC+ output increases and sustained non-oil momentum in key economies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
'While uncertainty and trade shifts may place pressures on fiscal policy, the region's two key economies are expected to continue to progress toward economic diversification and attract global capital at an accelerated pace,' added Livermore.
The impact of the US 10 percent tariff on imports from GCC countries is expected to be limited, given the region's low US export exposure and the exemption of energy products.
Overall, non-oil sectors in the GCC are forecast to grow by 4.1 percent in 2025, supported by strong domestic demand, investment momentum, and diversification initiatives.
ICAEW added that the region is also favorably positioned to absorb any trade rebalances resulting from tariff headwinds and geopolitical tensions.
Saudi Arabia outlook
Saudi Arabia's economy is expected to witness growth of 5.2 percent in 2025, according to ICAEW.
The non-oil sector in the Kingdom is projected to grow by 5.3 percent in 2025, while the oil economy is also forecast to expand by 5.2 percent this year.
The report added that Saudi Arabia's oil production is averaging 9.7 million barrels per day, while non-oil sectors, including construction and trade, are contributing to the ongoing growth momentum.
ICAEW further stated that Saudi Arabia recorded an economic growth of 3.4 percent year on year in the first quarter, driven by a 4.9 percent expansion in non-oil activities.
'The rebasing of national accounts boosted the non-oil sector's share of GDP, reinforcing the Kingdom's diversification drive. However, weaker oil prices are expected to widen the fiscal deficit to 3.4 percent of the gross domestic product,' said ICAEW.
In May, a separate report released by the General Authority for Statistics revealed that Saudi Arabia's economy expanded by 2.7 percent year on year in the first quarter, driven by strong non-oil activity.
Commenting on the GDP figures at that time, Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim, who also chairs GASTAT's board, said the contribution of non-oil activities to the Kingdom's GDP reached 53.2 percent — an increase of 5.7 percent from previous estimates.
The minister added that Saudi Arabia's economic outlook remains positive, supported by structural reforms and high-quality, state-led projects across various sectors.
The ICAEW report noted that despite potential risks, investor sentiment remains strong, with credit rating agency S&P Global upgrading the Kingdom's credit rating to A+.
In March, S&P Global said that Saudi Arabia's strong rating is driven by the economic and social transformation taking place in the Kingdom.
In February, Fitch Ratings also affirmed Saudi Arabia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at 'A+' with a stable outlook, citing the Kingdom's strong fiscal and external balance sheets.
UAE growth driven by investments
The UAE economy is projected to expand by 5.1 percent in 2025, driven by a recovery in oil output and a 4.7 percent rise in non-oil GDP, according to ICAEW.
'Tourism remains a key growth driver, with international visitor spending expected to contribute nearly 13 percent of GDP in 2025. In the first quarter, Dubai welcomed 5.3 million international visitors, up 3 percent year on year, consolidating its position as a leading tourism hub,' said the report.
Strategic investments are also fueling momentum in the UAE, including a $1.4 trillion investment pipeline and new AI-focused collaborations following President Trump's visit to the Emirates in May.
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, president of the UAE, on the sidelines of Trump's visit, said that this planned $1.4 trillion investment in the US over the next decade underscores a strong partnership with Washington.
The UAE president added that investments would span critical sectors such as technology, artificial intelligence, and energy.
'While rising tariffs are likely to suppress global inflation, a weaker US dollar may push up import prices in the UAE — particularly from non-dollar trade partners — offsetting some of the disinflationary effects,' concluded ICAEW.
Earlier this month, the Central Bank of the UAE revealed that the Emirates' GDP reached 1.77 billion dirhams ($481.4 million) in 2024, recording 4 percent growth, with non-oil sectors contributing 75.5 percent of the total.
CBUAE added that the Emirates is expected to witness economic growth of 4.5 percent in 2025, before accelerating further to 5.5 percent in 2026.