America is sinking, and Canada cannot go down with the ship

Globe and Mail

5 days ago

Claude Lavoie is a contributing columnist for The Globe and Mail. He was director-general of economic studies and policy analysis at the Department of Finance from 2008 to 2023.
Here we are. Wednesday is the deadline for countries to sign new trade deals with the United States, or face punishing tariffs. The European Union seems confident it will reach a deal, though the outlook does not look so rosy for others. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened 25-per-cent tariffs on Japan and Korea if they don't come to heel.
As the clock ticks down, it's worth noting the irony: Mr. Trump is blaming other countries for the large U.S. trade deficits when the U.S. should be looking at itself.
This trade war – plus the passing of the 'Big Beautiful Bill' last week and the associated boost in spending – suggests it's unlikely Americans will do the appropriate work to address their issues. And while trade deficits are not inherently good or bad, these continuous large deficits will end up disturbing financial and currency markets, creating challenges and opportunities for Canada.
A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more than it exports, or essentially when Americans spend more than they earn.
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To make up the difference, the U.S. economy borrows from foreign investors by selling them government or corporate bonds, stocks, real estate and other instruments. The accumulation of trade deficits over the years mean that the U.S. is heavily indebted to other countries. On a net basis (accounting for what is owed by other countries to the U.S.), Americans owe the rest of the world US$26-trillion – 90 per cent of the U.S. GDP. This is the largest net foreign debt of any advanced economy.
Normally such a high level of foreign debt would worry financial markets. Investors would start dumping U.S. assets, which would lead to a U.S. dollar depreciation and higher interest rates for American borrowers. However, Americans have increased their foreign debt with impunity because the U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency.
Indeed, some might say the chicken comes before the egg: The U.S. spends more than it produces precisely because it attracts so much foreign money. Needing U.S. dollar-denominated assets to pay for their international transactions, foreign investors are willing to turn a blind eye to the country's excessive spending.
This is America's so-called 'exorbitant privilege' that provides the U.S. with lower costs of borrowing, cheaper import prices and power over the global financial system. This privilege certainly incentivizes Americans to become more indebted, but just because you have a line of credit with a very low interest rate doesn't mean you should max it out.
Through years of abusing its privilege, the United States has eroded confidence in its dollar. According to a CFA Institute survey, close to two-thirds of global financial professionals expect that the greenback will lose its leading reserve-currency status in the next five to 15 years. The global selloff of American bonds last month suggests the U.S. administration's chaotic actions may have accelerated this timeline.
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One might expect that a combination of tariffs, drastic public spending cuts, and a potential Mar-a-Lago accord (designed to devalue the dollar) will correct this problem. Drastic public spending cuts, such as those announced by DOGE, might help but are unlikely to be large enough. Any significant fiscal deficit reduction will require cuts in social programs because, as in Canada, most government outlays are transfers to individuals.
Such cuts will increase poverty and inequality rates, which are already among the highest in the industrialized world, and risk leading to social unrest. The debate around last week's 'Big Beautiful Bill' shows how difficult it will be to bring spending to a level compatible with a reasonable deficit.
Tariffs increase consumer prices and reduce spending, reducing borrowing needs. However, tariffs also increase the costs of inputs and production and make other countries retaliate. These lead production and income to fall, increasing borrowing needs.
Raising individual taxes is one potential effective solution. But Mr. Trump is doing the opposite to satiate the rich oligarchy supporting his administration.
This means the amount of debt the U.S. owes will continue to pile up. This and political dysfunction are significantly threatening the position of the greenback as the world's reserve currency and raising the risk of a global currency realignment. We can expect the U.S. to gradually lose its financial power and the U.S. dollar to weaken.
When foreign investors sell their U.S. assets, will they invest the proceeds in Canada or somewhere else? This will depend on how financial markets perceive our country, particularly our ability to decouple from the U.S. economy. The fact that the Canadian dollar has remained relatively weak suggests the market is not too optimistic about our ability to do so.
The new federal government has a marketing job to do. Canada is well positioned. Our fiscal situation is relatively sound, at least for now. Canadians are net lenders to the rest of the world. Our inequality and poverty rates are relatively low. Even if we're cut off from the U.S. market, Canadian businesses still benefit from 15 free-trade agreements and preferential access to 50 markets representing a third of the global economy. A company setting up in Canada has access to all these markets and will likely have better access to the U.S. market than if it goes somewhere else.
The current trade war presents challenges and opportunities for Canada. Further improving our investments and economic framework would make Canada more attractive for human and physical capital losing faith in the U.S. We need to show we can be economically independent and able to withstand what is looking like the gradual fall of the American empire.