S&P Futures Tick Lower With U.S. GDP and PCE Inflation Data in Focus, Microsoft and Meta Earnings on Tap
June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are trending down -0.11% this morning as investors cautiously await a barrage of U.S. economic data, including the Fed's favorite inflation gauge and the first estimate of first-quarter GDP, as well as earnings reports from 'Magnificent Seven' companies Microsoft and Meta.
In yesterday's trading session, Wall Street's three main equity benchmarks closed higher. SBA Communications (SBAC) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after raising its full-year revenue guidance. Also, Honeywell International (HON) advanced more than +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the industrial conglomerate reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results and raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. In addition, Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) rose over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company lifted its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) slumped more than -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the semiconductor firm announced a new chief executive officer and warned it was navigating 'a very uncertain environment' due to tariffs.
A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to a 6-month low of 7.192M in March, weaker than expectations of 7.490M. Also, the U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to a nearly 5-year low of 86.0 in April, weaker than expectations of 87.7. In addition, the U.S. February S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +4.5% y/y from +4.7% y/y in January, weaker than expectations of +4.6% y/y.
'Many are still calling for a recession and even lower equity levels, but we think the 'Trump put' is real for equities while the 'Fed put' is real for the economy. And while tops and bottoms are hard to recognize as they are happening, we think the worst is behind us,' said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92.3% probability of no rate change and a 7.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at May's monetary policy meeting.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed two executive orders intended to ease the impact of his auto tariffs, while his Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that the U.S. had reached its first trade deal with an undisclosed country.
First-quarter corporate earnings season rolls on, with investors looking forward to fresh reports from major companies today, including Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Caterpillar (CAT), and KLA Corp. (KLAC). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, all eyes are on the Commerce Department's first estimate of gross domestic product, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that U.S. GDP growth will stand at +0.2% q/q in the first quarter, compared to the fourth-quarter figure of +2.4% q/q.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred price gauge. Economists expect the core PCE price index to be +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y in March, compared to the previous figures of +0.4% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data will be closely monitored today. Economists foresee the April figure coming in at 114K, compared to the March figure of 155K.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will be reported today. Economists anticipate March Personal Spending to be +0.6% m/m and Personal Income to be +0.4% m/m, compared to February's figures of +0.4% m/m and +0.8% m/m, respectively.
The U.S. Employment Cost Index will be released today. Economists expect this figure to arrive at +0.9% q/q in the first quarter, matching the fourth quarter's figure.
U.S. Pending Home Sales data will come in today. Economists forecast the March figure at +0.9% m/m, compared to the previous figure of +2.0% m/m.
The U.S. Chicago PMI will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to come in at 45.9 in April, compared to the previous value of 47.6.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.161%, down -0.31%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.08% this morning as investors digest a wave of corporate earnings reports and key economic data from the region. Automobile stocks outperformed on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order softening the impact of his auto tariffs. At the same time, mining stocks slumped, with Glencore Plc (GLEN.LN) sliding over -4% after it reported a 30% drop in Q1 copper production. The benchmark index is on track for the second consecutive monthly drop. Eurostat data released on Wednesday showed that the Eurozone economy expanded at a quicker rate in the first quarter, supported by U.S. companies stockpiling imported goods ahead of anticipated tariff increases. Separately, preliminary data showed that France's annual inflation rate held steady in April, while Italy's annual inflation rate for April edged up slightly. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said on Wednesday that he is a 'proponent of a 25-basis-points cut' at the central bank's next meeting in June. Investor focus is now on Germany's preliminary inflation data for April, due later in the session. In other corporate news, Societe Generale (GLE.FP) gained over +2% after reporting better-than-expected Q1 results. At the same time, Ssab Ab (SSABB.S.DX) fell more than -4% after the Swedish steelmaker posted a 57% decline in Q1 operating profit.
Germany's Retail Sales, Germany's Unemployment Change, Germany's Unemployment Rate, France's CPI (preliminary), Italy's CPI (preliminary), and Eurozone's GDP (preliminary) data were released today.
The German March Retail Sales stood at -0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.4% m/m.
The German April Unemployment Change arrived at 4K, stronger than expectations of 16K.
The German April Unemployment Rate was 6.3%, in line with expectations.
The French April CPI came in at +0.5% m/m and +0.8% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.4% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
The Italian April CPI arrived at +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y, in line with expectations.
Eurozone GDP has been reported at +0.4% q/q and +1.2% y/y in the first quarter, stronger than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +1.0% y/y.
Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China's Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.23%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.57%.
China's Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as investors digested weak PMI data from the country. Bank stocks led the declines on Wednesday. An official survey released on Wednesday showed that China's factory activity shrank at the fastest rate in 16 months in April, revealing initial harm to the world's second-largest economy from the trade war with the U.S. Also, a private measure of Chinese manufacturing activity showed a slowdown in April, though it remained in expansion territory for the seventh consecutive month. In addition, the non-manufacturing gauge showed that activity in construction and services expanded at a slower-than-expected pace. The readings heightened concerns over the wider economic impact of trade tensions and boosted expectations for stronger government stimulus. Earlier this week, the vice head of China's state planner promised the rollout of new policies over the second quarter. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Wednesday that China has compiled a list of U.S.-made goods to be exempted from its 125% tariffs and is quietly informing companies about the policy, as Beijing looks to soften the impact of its trade war with Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he thought a trade deal with China was on the horizon. 'But it's going to be a fair deal,' he added. In corporate news, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China fell over -3% after the lender posted weak Q1 results.
The Chinese April Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.0, weaker than expectations of 49.7.
The Chinese April Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4, stronger than expectations of 49.7.
The Chinese April Non-Manufacturing PMI arrived at 50.4, weaker than expectations of 50.6.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today as trading resumed after a holiday. Sentiment was boosted by remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said the administration held 'substantial talks' with Japan regarding a potential trade deal. Also, Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, stated that he aims to achieve steady progress in tariff talks with the U.S. He is set to travel to Washington later in the day to meet his counterparts for a second round of talks. Bank and electronics stocks led the gains on Wednesday. The benchmark index notched its first monthly gain since December. Meanwhile, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry released on Wednesday showed that Japan's industrial production fell more than expected in March, signaling that manufacturers became cautious amid the U.S. tariff uncertainty. A separate government data release showed that retail sales growth in March came in below expectations. Investor focus now shifts to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate steady at 0.5% on Thursday, but it remains on a rate-hike path due to strong domestic fundamentals, according to Barclays economists. In corporate news, Sony Group climbed over +7% after Bloomberg reported that the group is considering spinning off its semiconductor unit. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -5.48% to 27.23.
The Japanese March Industrial Production (preliminary) arrived at -1.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m.
The Japanese March Retail Sales stood at +3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.6% y/y.
The Japanese February Leading Index came in at 107.9, in line with expectations.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbled over -14% in pre-market trading after the artificial intelligence server maker reported weaker-than-expected preliminary Q3 results.
Snap (SNAP) plunged more than -13% in pre-market trading after the company declined to issue Q2 guidance due to economic uncertainty.
Starbucks (SBUX) slid over -6% in pre-market trading after the coffee chain posted weaker-than-expected FQ2 results.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today's U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - April 30th
Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Caterpillar (CAT), ADP (ADP), KLA Corp. (KLAC), Equinix (EQIX), Trane Technologies (TT), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP), Aflac (AFL), Allstate (ALL), MetLife (MET), Public Storage (PSA), Crown Castle (CCI), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Yum! Brands (YUM), Hess (HES), Public Service Enterprise (PEG), Garmin (GRMN), Prudential Financial (PRU), Cognizant (CTSH), Fannie Mae (FNMA), VICI Properties (VICI), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Tradeweb Markets (TW), Humana (HUM), eBay (EBAY), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Ventas (VTR), AvalonBay (AVB), American Water Works (AWK), ANSYS (ANSS), PPL (PPL), International Paper (IP), CGI Inc (GIB), Invitation Homes (INVH), Mid-America Apartment (MAA), EMCOR (EME), PTC (PTC), Gfl Environmental (GFL), Everest (EG), Sprouts Farmers (SFM), UDR (UDR), Western Digital (WDC), Lineage (LINE), Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP), United Therapeutics (UTHR), Align (ALGN), Pilgrims Pride (PPC), Morningstar (MORN), Alamos Gold (AGI), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), Clean Harbors (CLH), XPO (XPO), SCI (SCI), Antero Resources Corp (AR), FTAI Aviation (FTAI), Penske Automotive (PAG), CH Robinson (CHRW), Lincoln Electrics (LECO), Globe Life (GL), DT Midstream (DTM), Host Hotels Resorts (HST), Stanley Black Decker (SWK), MGM (MGM), Evercore (EVR), Antero Midstream (AM), Confluent (CFLT), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), Axis Capital (AXS), Parsons (PSN), Open Text (OTEX), National Fuel Gas (NFG), Albemarle (ALB), Generac (GNRC), Wyndham Hotels (WH), Wingstop Inc (WING), Waystar Holding (WAY), Guardant Health (GH), MGIC Investment (MTG), Clearway Energy (CWEN), The Hanover Insurance (THG), Credit Acceptance (CACC), Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN), Oshkosh (OSK), Silgans (SLGN), Comstock Resources (CRK), Glaukos Corp (GKOS), Enact Holdings (ACT), Lancaster Colony (LANC), FMC (FMC), Siteone Landscape Supply (SITE), Reynolds (REYN), Etsy Inc (ETSY), Bausch + Lomb (BLCO), Ionis Pharma (IONS), Gates Industrial Corp (GTES), Timken (TKR), Independence Realty Trust Inc (IRT), Federal Signal (FSS), Cognex (CGNX), Spire (SR), Wex (WEX), Radian (RDN), Avnet (AVT), Bloom Energy (BE), Magnolia Oil (MGY), PureTech Health (PRTC).
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Toronto Star
an hour ago
- Toronto Star
New disputes emerge ahead of US-China trade talks in London
BEIJING (AP) — U.S.-China trade talks in London this week are expected to take up a series of fresh disputes that have buffeted relations, threatening a fragile truce over tariffs. Both sides agreed in Geneva last month to a 90-day suspension of most of the 100%-plus tariffs they had imposed on each other in an escalating trade war that had sparked fears of recession. Since then, the U.S. and China have exchanged angry words over advanced semiconductors that power artificial intelligence, 'rare earths' that are vital to carmakers and other industries, and visas for Chinese students at American universities. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW President Donald Trump spoke at length with Chinese leader Xi Jinping by phone last Thursday in an attempt to put relations back on track. Trump announced on social media the next day that trade talks would be held on Monday in London. Technology is a major sticking point The latest frictions began just a day after the May 12 announcement of the Geneva agreement to 'pause' tariffs for 90 days. The U.S. Commerce Department issued guidance saying the use of Ascend AI chips from Huawei, a leading Chinese tech company, could violate U.S. export controls. That's because the chips were likely developed with American technology despite restrictions on its export to China, the guidance said. The Chinese government wasn't pleased. One of its biggest beefs in recent years has been over U.S. moves to limit the access of Chinese companies to technology, and in particular to equipment and processes needed to produce the most advanced semiconductors. 'The Chinese side urges the U.S. side to immediately correct its erroneous practices,' a Commerce Ministry spokesperson said. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick wasn't in Geneva but will join the talks in London. Analysts say that suggests at least a willingness on the U.S. side to hear out China's concerns on export controls. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW China shows signs of easing up on rare earths One area where China holds the upper hand is in the mining and processing of rare earths. They are crucial for not only autos but also a range of other products from robots to military equipment. The Chinese government started requiring producers to obtain a license to export seven rare earth elements in April. Resulting shortages sent automakers worldwide into a tizzy. As stockpiles ran down, some worried they would have to halt production. Trump, without mentioning rare earths specifically, took to social media to attack China. 'The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US,' Trump posted on May 30. The Chinese government indicated Saturday that it is addressing the concerns, which have come from European companies as well. A Commerce Ministry statement said it had granted some approvals and 'will continue to strengthen the approval of applications that comply with regulations.' The scramble to resolve the rare earth issue shows that China has a strong card to play if it wants to strike back against tariffs or other measures. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Plan to revoke student visas adds to tensions Student visas don't normally figure in trade talks, but a U.S. announcement that it would begin revoking the visas of some Chinese students has emerged as another thorn in the relationship. China's Commerce Ministry raised the issue when asked last week about the accusation that it had violated the consensus reached in Geneva. It replied that the U.S. had undermined the agreement by issuing export control guidelines for AI chips, stopping the sale of chip design software to China and saying it would revoke Chinese student visas. 'The United States has unilaterally provoked new economic and trade frictions,' the ministry said in a statement posted on its website. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a May 28 statement that the United States would 'aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields.' More than 270,000 Chinese students studied in the U.S. in the 2023-24 academic year.
Winnipeg Free Press
an hour ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
New disputes emerge ahead of US-China trade talks in London
BEIJING (AP) — U.S.-China trade talks in London this week are expected to take up a series of fresh disputes that have buffeted relations, threatening a fragile truce over tariffs. Both sides agreed in Geneva last month to a 90-day suspension of most of the 100%-plus tariffs they had imposed on each other in an escalating trade war that had sparked fears of recession. Since then, the U.S. and China have exchanged angry words over advanced semiconductors that power artificial intelligence, 'rare earths' that are vital to carmakers and other industries, and visas for Chinese students at American universities. President Donald Trump spoke at length with Chinese leader Xi Jinping by phone last Thursday in an attempt to put relations back on track. Trump announced on social media the next day that trade talks would be held on Monday in London. Technology is a major sticking point The latest frictions began just a day after the May 12 announcement of the Geneva agreement to 'pause' tariffs for 90 days. The U.S. Commerce Department issued guidance saying the use of Ascend AI chips from Huawei, a leading Chinese tech company, could violate U.S. export controls. That's because the chips were likely developed with American technology despite restrictions on its export to China, the guidance said. The Chinese government wasn't pleased. One of its biggest beefs in recent years has been over U.S. moves to limit the access of Chinese companies to technology, and in particular to equipment and processes needed to produce the most advanced semiconductors. 'The Chinese side urges the U.S. side to immediately correct its erroneous practices,' a Commerce Ministry spokesperson said. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick wasn't in Geneva but will join the talks in London. Analysts say that suggests at least a willingness on the U.S. side to hear out China's concerns on export controls. China shows signs of easing up on rare earths One area where China holds the upper hand is in the mining and processing of rare earths. They are crucial for not only autos but also a range of other products from robots to military equipment. The Chinese government started requiring producers to obtain a license to export seven rare earth elements in April. Resulting shortages sent automakers worldwide into a tizzy. As stockpiles ran down, some worried they would have to halt production. Trump, without mentioning rare earths specifically, took to social media to attack China. 'The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US,' Trump posted on May 30. The Chinese government indicated Saturday that it is addressing the concerns, which have come from European companies as well. A Commerce Ministry statement said it had granted some approvals and 'will continue to strengthen the approval of applications that comply with regulations.' The scramble to resolve the rare earth issue shows that China has a strong card to play if it wants to strike back against tariffs or other measures. Plan to revoke student visas adds to tensions Student visas don't normally figure in trade talks, but a U.S. announcement that it would begin revoking the visas of some Chinese students has emerged as another thorn in the relationship. China's Commerce Ministry raised the issue when asked last week about the accusation that it had violated the consensus reached in Geneva. It replied that the U.S. had undermined the agreement by issuing export control guidelines for AI chips, stopping the sale of chip design software to China and saying it would revoke Chinese student visas. 'The United States has unilaterally provoked new economic and trade frictions,' the ministry said in a statement posted on its website. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a May 28 statement that the United States would 'aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields.' More than 270,000 Chinese students studied in the U.S. in the 2023-24 academic year.
Globe and Mail
11 hours ago
- Globe and Mail
Is CoreWeave Stock a Buy Now?
Investing in today's stock market can be tricky given the volatile macroeconomic climate, fueled by the Trump administration's ever-shifting tariff policies. But the artificial intelligence sector remains a robust investment opportunity as organizations around the world race to build artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. Consequently, AI stocks provide the potential for great gains. One example is CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV). The company went public in March at $40 per share. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » Since then, CoreWeave stock soared to a 52-week high of $166.63 in June. This hot stock remains more than triple its IPO price at the time of this writing. Can it go higher? Evaluating whether now is the time to grab CoreWeave shares requires digging into the company and unpacking its potential as a good investment for the long haul. Reasons to consider CoreWeave stock CoreWeave delivers cloud computing infrastructure to businesses hungry for more computing capacity for their AI systems. The company operates over 30 data centers housing servers and other hardware used by customers to train their AI and develop inference, which is an AI's ability to apply what it learned in training to real-world situations. AI juggernauts such as Microsoft, IBM, and OpenAI, the owner of ChatGPT, are among its roster of customers. The insatiable appetite for AI computing power propelled CoreWeave's business. The company's first-quarter revenue rose a whopping 420% year over year to $981.6 million. Sales growth shows no sign of slowing down. CoreWeave expects Q2 revenue to reach about $1.1 billion. That would represent a strong year-over-year increase of nearly 170% from the prior year's $395 million. The company signs long-term, committed contracts, and as a result, it has visibility into its future revenue potential. At the end of Q1, CoreWeave had amassed a revenue backlog of $25.9 billion, up 63% year over year thanks to a deal with OpenAI. The company forecasts 2025 full-year revenue to come in between $4.9 billion and $5.1 billion, a substantial jump up from 2024's $1.9 billion. CoreWeave's concerning downsides Although CoreWeave has enjoyed massive sales success, there are some potential pitfalls with the company. For starters, it isn't profitable. Its Q1 operating expenses totaled $1 billion compared to revenue of $981.6 million, resulting in an operating loss of $27.5 million. Even worse, its costs are accelerating faster than sales, which means the company is moving further away from reaching profitability. CoreWeave's $1 billion in operating expenses represented a 487% increase over the prior year, eclipsing its 420% year-over-year revenue growth. Another area of concern is the company's significant debt load. CoreWeave exited Q1 with $18.8 billion in total liabilities on its balance sheet, and $8.7 billion of that was debt. To keep up with customer demand for computing power, CoreWeave has to spend on expanding and upgrading AI-optimized hardware, and that's not cheap. As it adds customers, the company must expand its data centers to keep pace. Debt is one way it's funding these capital expenditures. Among the risks of buying its stock, CoreWeave admitted, "Our substantial indebtedness could materially adversely affect our financial condition" and that the company "may still incur substantially more indebtedness in the future." In fact, its Q1 debt total of $8.7 billion was a 10% increase from the prior quarter's $7.9 billion in debt. To buy or not to buy CoreWeave stock Seeing an increase in both expenses and debt is a concern, but because CoreWeave is a newly public company, there's not much history to know how well it can manage its finances over the long term. Q1 is the only quarter of financial results it's released since its initial public offering. If subsequent quarters reveal a trend toward getting costs and debt under control while continuing to show strong sales growth, CoreWeave stock may prove to be a worthwhile investment over the long run. But for now, only investors with a high risk tolerance should consider buying shares. Even then, another consideration is CoreWeave's stock valuation. This can be assessed by comparing its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to other AI companies, such as its customer and fellow cloud provider Microsoft and AI leader Nvidia. Data by YCharts. CoreWeave's share price surged over recent weeks, causing its P/S multiple to skyrocket past that of Nvidia and Microsoft. The valuation suggests CoreWeave stock is overpriced at this time. Although CoreWeave's sales are strong, given its pricey stock and shaky financials, the ideal approach is to put CoreWeave on your watch list. See how it performs over the next few quarters, and wait for its high valuation to drop before considering an investment. Should you invest $1,000 in CoreWeave right now? Before you buy stock in CoreWeave, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and CoreWeave wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $669,517!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $868,615!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor 's total average return is792% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to171%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 Robert Izquierdo has positions in International Business Machines, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends International Business Machines, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
