S&P Futures Tick Lower With U.S. GDP and PCE Inflation Data in Focus, Microsoft and Meta Earnings on Tap

Globe and Mail

30-04-2025

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are trending down -0.11% this morning as investors cautiously await a barrage of U.S. economic data, including the Fed's favorite inflation gauge and the first estimate of first-quarter GDP, as well as earnings reports from 'Magnificent Seven' companies Microsoft and Meta.
In yesterday's trading session, Wall Street's three main equity benchmarks closed higher. SBA Communications (SBAC) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after raising its full-year revenue guidance. Also, Honeywell International (HON) advanced more than +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the industrial conglomerate reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results and raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. In addition, Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) rose over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company lifted its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) slumped more than -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the semiconductor firm announced a new chief executive officer and warned it was navigating 'a very uncertain environment' due to tariffs.
A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to a 6-month low of 7.192M in March, weaker than expectations of 7.490M. Also, the U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to a nearly 5-year low of 86.0 in April, weaker than expectations of 87.7. In addition, the U.S. February S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +4.5% y/y from +4.7% y/y in January, weaker than expectations of +4.6% y/y.
'Many are still calling for a recession and even lower equity levels, but we think the 'Trump put' is real for equities while the 'Fed put' is real for the economy. And while tops and bottoms are hard to recognize as they are happening, we think the worst is behind us,' said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92.3% probability of no rate change and a 7.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at May's monetary policy meeting.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed two executive orders intended to ease the impact of his auto tariffs, while his Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that the U.S. had reached its first trade deal with an undisclosed country.
First-quarter corporate earnings season rolls on, with investors looking forward to fresh reports from major companies today, including Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Caterpillar (CAT), and KLA Corp. (KLAC). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, all eyes are on the Commerce Department's first estimate of gross domestic product, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that U.S. GDP growth will stand at +0.2% q/q in the first quarter, compared to the fourth-quarter figure of +2.4% q/q.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred price gauge. Economists expect the core PCE price index to be +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y in March, compared to the previous figures of +0.4% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data will be closely monitored today. Economists foresee the April figure coming in at 114K, compared to the March figure of 155K.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will be reported today. Economists anticipate March Personal Spending to be +0.6% m/m and Personal Income to be +0.4% m/m, compared to February's figures of +0.4% m/m and +0.8% m/m, respectively.
The U.S. Employment Cost Index will be released today. Economists expect this figure to arrive at +0.9% q/q in the first quarter, matching the fourth quarter's figure.
U.S. Pending Home Sales data will come in today. Economists forecast the March figure at +0.9% m/m, compared to the previous figure of +2.0% m/m.
The U.S. Chicago PMI will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to come in at 45.9 in April, compared to the previous value of 47.6.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.161%, down -0.31%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.08% this morning as investors digest a wave of corporate earnings reports and key economic data from the region. Automobile stocks outperformed on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order softening the impact of his auto tariffs. At the same time, mining stocks slumped, with Glencore Plc (GLEN.LN) sliding over -4% after it reported a 30% drop in Q1 copper production. The benchmark index is on track for the second consecutive monthly drop. Eurostat data released on Wednesday showed that the Eurozone economy expanded at a quicker rate in the first quarter, supported by U.S. companies stockpiling imported goods ahead of anticipated tariff increases. Separately, preliminary data showed that France's annual inflation rate held steady in April, while Italy's annual inflation rate for April edged up slightly. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said on Wednesday that he is a 'proponent of a 25-basis-points cut' at the central bank's next meeting in June. Investor focus is now on Germany's preliminary inflation data for April, due later in the session. In other corporate news, Societe Generale (GLE.FP) gained over +2% after reporting better-than-expected Q1 results. At the same time, Ssab Ab (SSABB.S.DX) fell more than -4% after the Swedish steelmaker posted a 57% decline in Q1 operating profit.
Germany's Retail Sales, Germany's Unemployment Change, Germany's Unemployment Rate, France's CPI (preliminary), Italy's CPI (preliminary), and Eurozone's GDP (preliminary) data were released today.
The German March Retail Sales stood at -0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.4% m/m.
The German April Unemployment Change arrived at 4K, stronger than expectations of 16K.
The German April Unemployment Rate was 6.3%, in line with expectations.
The French April CPI came in at +0.5% m/m and +0.8% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.4% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
The Italian April CPI arrived at +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y, in line with expectations.
Eurozone GDP has been reported at +0.4% q/q and +1.2% y/y in the first quarter, stronger than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +1.0% y/y.
Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China's Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.23%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.57%.
China's Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as investors digested weak PMI data from the country. Bank stocks led the declines on Wednesday. An official survey released on Wednesday showed that China's factory activity shrank at the fastest rate in 16 months in April, revealing initial harm to the world's second-largest economy from the trade war with the U.S. Also, a private measure of Chinese manufacturing activity showed a slowdown in April, though it remained in expansion territory for the seventh consecutive month. In addition, the non-manufacturing gauge showed that activity in construction and services expanded at a slower-than-expected pace. The readings heightened concerns over the wider economic impact of trade tensions and boosted expectations for stronger government stimulus. Earlier this week, the vice head of China's state planner promised the rollout of new policies over the second quarter. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Wednesday that China has compiled a list of U.S.-made goods to be exempted from its 125% tariffs and is quietly informing companies about the policy, as Beijing looks to soften the impact of its trade war with Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he thought a trade deal with China was on the horizon. 'But it's going to be a fair deal,' he added. In corporate news, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China fell over -3% after the lender posted weak Q1 results.
The Chinese April Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.0, weaker than expectations of 49.7.
The Chinese April Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4, stronger than expectations of 49.7.
The Chinese April Non-Manufacturing PMI arrived at 50.4, weaker than expectations of 50.6.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today as trading resumed after a holiday. Sentiment was boosted by remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said the administration held 'substantial talks' with Japan regarding a potential trade deal. Also, Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, stated that he aims to achieve steady progress in tariff talks with the U.S. He is set to travel to Washington later in the day to meet his counterparts for a second round of talks. Bank and electronics stocks led the gains on Wednesday. The benchmark index notched its first monthly gain since December. Meanwhile, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry released on Wednesday showed that Japan's industrial production fell more than expected in March, signaling that manufacturers became cautious amid the U.S. tariff uncertainty. A separate government data release showed that retail sales growth in March came in below expectations. Investor focus now shifts to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate steady at 0.5% on Thursday, but it remains on a rate-hike path due to strong domestic fundamentals, according to Barclays economists. In corporate news, Sony Group climbed over +7% after Bloomberg reported that the group is considering spinning off its semiconductor unit. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -5.48% to 27.23.
The Japanese March Industrial Production (preliminary) arrived at -1.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m.
The Japanese March Retail Sales stood at +3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.6% y/y.
The Japanese February Leading Index came in at 107.9, in line with expectations.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbled over -14% in pre-market trading after the artificial intelligence server maker reported weaker-than-expected preliminary Q3 results.
Snap (SNAP) plunged more than -13% in pre-market trading after the company declined to issue Q2 guidance due to economic uncertainty.
Starbucks (SBUX) slid over -6% in pre-market trading after the coffee chain posted weaker-than-expected FQ2 results.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today's U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - April 30th
Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Caterpillar (CAT), ADP (ADP), KLA Corp. (KLAC), Equinix (EQIX), Trane Technologies (TT), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP), Aflac (AFL), Allstate (ALL), MetLife (MET), Public Storage (PSA), Crown Castle (CCI), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Yum! Brands (YUM), Hess (HES), Public Service Enterprise (PEG), Garmin (GRMN), Prudential Financial (PRU), Cognizant (CTSH), Fannie Mae (FNMA), VICI Properties (VICI), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Tradeweb Markets (TW), Humana (HUM), eBay (EBAY), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Ventas (VTR), AvalonBay (AVB), American Water Works (AWK), ANSYS (ANSS), PPL (PPL), International Paper (IP), CGI Inc (GIB), Invitation Homes (INVH), Mid-America Apartment (MAA), EMCOR (EME), PTC (PTC), Gfl Environmental (GFL), Everest (EG), Sprouts Farmers (SFM), UDR (UDR), Western Digital (WDC), Lineage (LINE), Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP), United Therapeutics (UTHR), Align (ALGN), Pilgrims Pride (PPC), Morningstar (MORN), Alamos Gold (AGI), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), Clean Harbors (CLH), XPO (XPO), SCI (SCI), Antero Resources Corp (AR), FTAI Aviation (FTAI), Penske Automotive (PAG), CH Robinson (CHRW), Lincoln Electrics (LECO), Globe Life (GL), DT Midstream (DTM), Host Hotels Resorts (HST), Stanley Black Decker (SWK), MGM (MGM), Evercore (EVR), Antero Midstream (AM), Confluent (CFLT), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), Axis Capital (AXS), Parsons (PSN), Open Text (OTEX), National Fuel Gas (NFG), Albemarle (ALB), Generac (GNRC), Wyndham Hotels (WH), Wingstop Inc (WING), Waystar Holding (WAY), Guardant Health (GH), MGIC Investment (MTG), Clearway Energy (CWEN), The Hanover Insurance (THG), Credit Acceptance (CACC), Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN), Oshkosh (OSK), Silgans (SLGN), Comstock Resources (CRK), Glaukos Corp (GKOS), Enact Holdings (ACT), Lancaster Colony (LANC), FMC (FMC), Siteone Landscape Supply (SITE), Reynolds (REYN), Etsy Inc (ETSY), Bausch + Lomb (BLCO), Ionis Pharma (IONS), Gates Industrial Corp (GTES), Timken (TKR), Independence Realty Trust Inc (IRT), Federal Signal (FSS), Cognex (CGNX), Spire (SR), Wex (WEX), Radian (RDN), Avnet (AVT), Bloom Energy (BE), Magnolia Oil (MGY), PureTech Health (PRTC).