Russia's Flagship Oil Urals Tumbles Toward $50 in Global Rout
A plunge in global oil prices has driven down the price of Russia's flagship grade Urals toward $50 a barrel, raising pressure on the state budget as the Kremlin ramps up defense spending for its war on Ukraine.
The country's Urals grade from the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk slumped to $52.76 on Friday, data from Argus Media show. The country's barrels have traded at deep discount to the global benchmark Dated Brent ever since the invasion began, more than three years ago.
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Key to Russia's potential defeat lies in its economy
As the war in Ukraine grinds on, attention remains fixed on the battlefield. But Russia's most vulnerable flank is not in the trenches — it's in the treasury. The West, and especially the United States, holds economic levers that could push Vladimir Putin toward serious negotiations or even collapse his ability to sustain the war altogether. Recent developments signal a shift in Washington's posture. Military aid to Ukraine has resumed, and a landmark U.S.-Ukraine resource agreement was signed on April 30. More significantly, senators — led by Republican Lindsey Graham — are advocating sanctions that would impose 500% tariffs on Russian oil and commodity exports. Moscow has reacted with alarm, calling this initiative a 'counteroffensive from the American deep state.' It's no bluff. The Kremlin is right to be worried. What truly threatens Putin's war machine is energy revenue — or rather, the loss of it. The Russian economy is deeply dependent on oil and gas exports, with the 2025 federal budget based on an oil price of $70 per barrel. But Russian Urals crude is now priced around $60, and could fall further. Saudi Arabia, frustrated by non-compliance within OPEC+, is allowing oil prices to drop, potentially triggering a price war. Riyadh has openly stated it can withstand a prolonged period of low prices — a veiled threat aimed at Moscow and other OPEC+ defectors. Read also: Exclusive: Russia's ballistic missile production up at least 66% over past year, according to Ukrainian intel figures The effects are already visible. Russia has slashed its oil revenue forecast for 2025 by 24%, with the Finance Ministry predicting a drop from 11 trillion to 8.3 trillion rubles. The country's oil production could decline by up to 50% by 2030, largely because newer reserves are technically difficult and capital-intensive to extract. That's why Moscow is quietly seeking Western — specifically U.S. — expertise to develop these fields. A coordinated, firm sanctions regime from Washington and Brussels could shut that door completely. Simultaneously, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are deepening their energy partnership, particularly in liquefied natural gas (LNG). Saudi Aramco has reportedly signed memoranda of understanding with American LNG exporters like NextDecade and Sempra. The latter already holds a major supply contract with Poland's Orlen, and the U.S. is now poised to become a key alternative gas supplier to Central and Eastern Europe. These investments will expand global LNG capacity and bring prices closer to the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark — lowering Europe's dependence on Russian gas. Poland and Ukraine are moving to capitalize on this trend. Warsaw has announced plans for a second floating LNG terminal, which could eventually supply Slovakia and Hungary — two nations historically reliant on Russian gas. Ukraine, meanwhile, is gaining investor interest now that the U.S. has committed to a joint Reconstruction and Investment Fund, funded through future resource extraction projects. For the first time since the full-scale invasion began, Western business sees a path forward in Ukraine's energy sector. The implications for Russia are grave. Military spending has ballooned to 6.3% of GDP — its highest level since the Cold War — while the budget deficit continues to rise. To fund its war, the Kremlin is raiding reserves, raising taxes, and cutting social programs. Absent war spending, Russia might already be in recession. The regime increasingly relies on military conflict to justify domestic hardship and consolidate power. Read also: Inside Russia, calls for peace come with conditions — and Kremlin talking points But the geopolitical landscape is shifting. The combination of low oil prices, expanding LNG competition, and targeted U.S. sanctions could inflict sustained economic damage on Russia without risking American or European lives. Energy diplomacy, not just weaponry, could determine the outcome of this war. The next steps are critical. The White House must maintain pressure — not just by providing Ukraine with military aid, but by deepening its energy cooperation with allies and enforcing robust sanctions. The message to Moscow should be clear: the price of continuing the war will be economic asphyxiation. If the United States can coordinate its economic tools with allies in Europe and the Middle East, Russia may find itself unable to afford the very war it insists on waging. Submit an Opinion Editor's Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
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Russian Urals oil to India sells at narrowest discounts since 2022, traders say
MOSCOW/NEW DELHI (Reuters) -Discounts for Russian flagship Urals crude oil for delivery to Indian ports in July hit their narrowest levels since 2022 as spot supplies have tightened, four traders involved in the market said on Friday. Narrowing discounts and tight spot supplies are nudging Indian refiners to scout for alternatives through buying tenders. Spot discounts for Urals crude narrowed to $2.25 per barrel on average for cargoes arriving in India in July, from $2.70 to $3.10 per barrel to dated Brent on delivery ex-ship (DES) basis in the previous month, the sources said. That is the narrowest discount for Urals oil cargoes sold to India since the Ukraine war broke out in 2022. India became the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude after Moscow diverted its energy supply away from the European Union which imposed a ban. Some Indian refiners which do not have long-term supply agreements with Russian oil companies are not getting enough Urals oil in July, the sources said. India's largest private refiner, Reliance Industries, locked in a term supply contract with Russian oil giant Rosneft last year, which reduced the availability of Urals in the spot market, they said. Russian oil traders cited higher demand for the grade from refiners in Turkey, which has recently increased buying, boosting competition with Indian refiners over the supply. Turkey's largest oil refiner, Tupras, resumed buying Urals in April after stopping earlier this year, because of tougher U.S. sanctions on Moscow. Two of the traders also said improving refining margins globally also helped boost Russian oil demand as refiners are eager to increase crude runs. India remains the biggest buyer of Russian Urals oil by sea, with imports hitting a 10-month high in May. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Russian media outlet says investigators search its editorial office
MOSCOW (Reuters) -A Russian media outlet in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg said on Thursday that investigators were conducting searches in its editorial office. one of the largest media outlets in the Urals, said searches were also being conducted in the flats of several journalists. "Investigators are interested in sources of information about events of a criminal nature in the Sverdlovsk region," said in a statement. There was no official comment from investigators. published video of officials in uniform in an office and masked investigators with sledge hammers.
