Following The Money: UFC 318 Betting Line Movements Tracker

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4 days ago

UFC 318 takes place later tonight (Sat., July 19, 2025) inside Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event is Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3, with Louisiana's Poirier hoping to score one last win in his iconic career before riding off into the ripped sunset.
UFC 318's co-main event is Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov. Rounding out the PPV main card is Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez, Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull and Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber.
UFC 318's 'Prelims' are headlined by Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira. The undercard also has Marvin Vettori vs. Brendon Allen and Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio.
I've been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 318 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you'll find all the line movement between Monday and this time of writing (Friday morning).
UFC 318 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker
Poirier's underdog line has slowing been growing this week, with Holloway's line moving in the reverse direction. The public seemingly favor 'Blessed' to spoil 'The Diamond' retirement party.
Though, that being said, it's still a pretty close fight.
I certainly like Poirier in this fight. He won the last two and is still bigger and more powerful than Holloway, while being just three years older. It's a close fight, no matter what though, as reflected in both the opening lines and how they have changed due to the public's wagers.
When it comes to Poirier the public haven't been that accurate recently. They correctly predicted that he would lose to Islam Makhachev last time out (taking his line from +280 to +350). But, they were wrong in his previous two fights.
The public faded Poirier against Benoit Saint Denis, turning his opening -175 line to +188. Poirier then went out and put a beating on the supposed up-and-comer.
Prior to that, the public backed him in his rematch with Justin Gaethje. He opened at +105 for that fight but closed at -130. He would then get stopped by a Gaethje head kick.
The public were right about Holloway in his last two fights. He opened at +146 against Ilia Topuria, but then closed at +245. Before that, Holloway opened at +225 against Gaethje, but the public backed him to the point that line came down to +160. Holloway would then give us the highlight of all highlights.
It would have been nice if Poirier was getting some public betting support in his last fight. He perhaps holds the title of being most popular, fan friendly and non problematic fighter in UFC history. But, then again, he's fighting one of the few people who can rival him for those accolades.
If the public are right about this match-up, then it will be Holloway who walks out of Smoothie King with his hand raised. No matter what, though, I have a feeling Poirier leaves with his head high and plenty of pride in what he's done over the past decade.
The lines on this fight are tightening to make Costa less of an underdog against the relatively unknown Kopylov. That's despite Costa's rather bizarre press conference appearance:
The public faded Costa in his last fight. He opened at +154 against Sean Strickland, but that grew to +220. Costa would then lose a split decision to the former champion.
The public were right when Kopylov fought Chris Curtis. He opened at -225 for that fight, but closed at -240. He then scored an awesome buzzer beating head kick on him. Before that, the pubic were very wrong. Vegas was right, though. Kopylov opened at -163 for his fight with Cesar Almeida and closed at +102, before taking a comfortable decision over the GLORY product.
We're seeing lots of movement in these lines, favoring Holland to get the job done against Rodriguez. Holland opened as a big favorite already for this one, but this week he's shot right up, with Rodriguez becoming a pretty big underdog. That's great news if you think Rodriguez will be able to repeat what he did to Santiago Ponzinibbio last time out.
The public have been pretty accurate with Holland lately. They backed him against Gunnar Nelson and Michal Oleksiejczuk and faded him against Reinier de Ridder and Roman Dolidze. If the public are right about him here, he'll take his win streak to three fights in 'The Big Easy.'
Pitbull's odds are slowly growing in this fight, which is no surprise if you saw his dud of a debut opposite Yair Rodriguez. Ige is coming off a controversial stoppage win over Sean Woodson, despite the nature of that win, the public seem comfortable with him as a favorite over the 38-year-old former Bellator champ.
The public usually fade Ige. His line against Woodson flipped from negative odds to positive ones, closing at around +142. He also went from +142 to +274 against Lerone Murphy and from +175 to +250 against Diego Lopes.
The public correctly faded Pitbull for his UFC debut. He opened at +125 for that fight and closed around +163.
Vegas had this one marked as a mismatch with exciting young brawler, Zellhuber, being a big favorite against veteran knockout artist in Johnson. And the public are with them on that, pushing Johnson's line out from +410 to +455. I kinda think this old dog is a real live dog in this fight, though.
The public backed Johnson in his last fight, taking him from -200 to -225 before he destroyed Ottman Azaitar. They were also right when he beat Darrius Flowers, taking his line from +142 to -135.
The public backed Zellhuber versus Esteban Ribovics last time out. Those two had a hell of a fight, but Zellhuber walked away from it with an 'L' on his record. If the public are right this time, he'll bounce back into the win column this weekend.
UFC 318 Late 'Prelims' Line Movement
Phillips has been a darling with bettors lately. He lost to Rob Font last time out, being thoroughly out-classed by the veteran Bantamweight. He went into that fight as a -590 favorite (having opened at -225). Before that, when he beat Pedro Munhoz, his line went from -162 to -210.
And the public are shining on him here, too, bringing his underdog line in a little. He's still the underdog to Oliveira, though. Oliveira was backed before he beat Said Nurmagomedov and faded before he beat Ricky Simon.
There's not been a lot of movement on Vettori's line. His name cache may be responsible for people jumping on his +170 line and bringing that down a little.
There's been barely any movement on Allen's line, either. It seems the public are very content with Vettori being a slight underdog in this fight, probably due to his recent losses to Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier. The public backed him in both of those fights, seems like they don't want to be fooled again.
Allen is coming off a loss, too (to Anthony Hernandez). But, I agree he should be favored to win this one, especially since he looked decent in that loss. Allen opened at +164 for that one and then closed at +270.
Prado's favorite line is shortening slightly, suggesting the public are liking him to beat Veretennikov.
The public are perfect on Prado in his four previous UFC fights. They faded him in his loss to Jake Matthews earlier this year and his earlier losses to Daniel Zellhuber and Jamie Mullarkey. They backed him before he knocked out Ottman Azaitar.
The public backed Veretennikov against short-notice opponent, Austen Vanderford. Veretennikov didn't repay them, though, after he lost to the former Bellator fighter. They correctly faded him against Danny Barlow, though.
There's been no noticeable change in the lines for Gautier and Valentin. That's a surprise for me. I expected Gautier's line to grow higher than this given how brutal (in a good way) his striking looked last time out. In that fight, with Jose Medina, he opened at -549, but that came down to -435.
Valentin has been faded in both his UFC fights to date, both of which were pretty bad losses.
UFC 318 Early 'Prelims' Line Movement
Dulatov opened as one of the biggest favorites on this card and the public seem fine with that. Despite Dulatov having just the one Contender Series appearance to his name, he's still a massive favorite to beat the more experienced Fugitt.
Vegas have a lot of faith in Dulatov. If I had more faith in Fugitt, I might question the line, but as it is, I'll just leave this fight alone and see what Dulatov is about for myself.
Crute is seeing some decent public support in this fight. That pushes Prachnio out to being a decent-sized underdog. Crute is coming off a draw with Rodolfo Bellato, while Prachnio was tapped out in his last fight against Modestas Bukauskas.
Spann opens as the favorite in his second attempt at being a UFC Heavyweight. Things didn't go well in his first attempt, but that doesn't seem to bother the betting public. A lot of that is probably due to how woeful Brzeski has looked in most of his UFC outings.
Ferreira opened as a massive favorite against promotional newcomer McVey. The public think this is a closer fight than Vegas does, though. Ferreira's line has come in some, but he's still a big favorite. It looks like a lot of people are taking a punt on McVey, who is coming off a technical knockout win in LFA and has had to wait around while two previous UFC opponents have fallen out of his fights for various reasons.
The gulf between Judice and Caliari's lines has widened a lot this week. Judice is now a big favorite to get her second UFC win (against a woman whose yet to get her first W).
UFC 318 Biggest Line Movements
TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 318:
Nicolle Caliari: From +245 underdog to +395 underdog (A)
Brunno Ferreira: From -675 favorite to -550 favorite (F)
Kevin Holland: From -500 favorite to -625 favorite (E)
Since I've been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.
A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 5-37.
B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 10-10.
C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 2-6.
D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 6-4.
E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-2.
F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 0-0.
UFC 318 Best Underdogs Bets
Johnson is my favorite underdog at UFC 318. He showed his power is still there in his last fight. And I think Zellhuber is going to give Johnson some chances to show that power — he can't help but get into brawls. I think there will be a lot of big shots landed on both sides and I think it's totally possible that Johnson lands the hardest of those.
Of course, I like Poirier in the main event, too. There's not many underdogs other than that which I'm terribly keen on.
Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 318 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ 'Prelims' matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC 318: 'Holloway vs. Poirier 3' news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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