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Sustained high crude oil prices to hurt downstream players
The fears centre around the possibility of supply routes being interdicted and hence, supply being disrupted, rather than Iranian oil being taken off the market
Devangshu Datta New Delhi
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The Iran-Israel conflict entered a more intense phase with the US carrying out airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend. The heightened tensions have led to further spikes in crude prices with Brent crossing the $81 per barrel or bbl mark.
The fears centre around the possibility of supply routes being interdicted and hence, supply being disrupted, rather than Iranian oil being taken off the market.
Iran's exports are mainly to China and the quantum of Iranian exports could be compensated for by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC-plus nations. Net-net, even with Iranian supply off the market, there could
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Indian Express
42 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Why Iran gave ‘early notice' of its attack on US base in Qatar
A day after the United States struck Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, Iran on Monday (June 23) retaliated with missile attacks against the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the forward headquarters of the US Central Command. The Iranian attack was telegraphed, calibrated, and evidently symbolic in nature. After promising retaliation following the American strikes, Iran gave 'advance notice' to their Qatari and American counterparts to minimise casualties. Almost all Iranian missiles were intercepted, with no American or Qatari casualties reported. This was confirmed by US President Donald Trump himself, who posted on Truth Social that Iran's response was 'weak and expected,' and 'there will, hopefully, be no further HATE.' 'I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same,' he wrote. Monday was the 11th straight day in which Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes. According to reports, the latest Israeli strikes were the largest in scale, including an attack on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC') headquarters. Iran's Qatar gamble The American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have neither eliminated Iran's enrichment capabilities, nor destroyed its existing stock of enriched uranium. Iranian officials claimed that stockpiles of 60%, 20%, and 3.67% enriched uranium had already been withdrawn from Fordow, partially or fully, ahead of the strikes. (This stockpile will remain central to Iran-US negotiations, if they ever resume). Arab media reports suggest that Washington supplied advance notice to Tehran of its June 22 strikes, and communicated privately that the attacks were a 'one-off' and that it was willing to resume negotiations. Across the 10 days of Israeli attacks, the Iranians consistently maintained two positions – that it was willing to resume nuclear negotiations if Israel ceased its attacks, and that Iran would certainly attack US bases (including those in Arab states) if the US joined Israel's attack. After the American attacks, Tehran had to find the optimal point between acting to preserve the credibility of its threats, and restraining itself enough to retain space for negotiations and recuperate. This is more so given Iran's abject economic condition, which has increasingly worsened over the last five years. Among all Arab states, Qatar was arguably among the few where the Iranians could risk targeting US assets, and attempt to contain diplomatic fallout. Qatar, which has positioned itself as a neutral mediator for the region's many conflicts (including between Israel and Hamas), has long maintained strong ties with Iran. This relationship was among the crucial reasons for Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain imposing an unprecedented blockade on Qatar between 2017 and 2021. This blockade ended in 2021, two years before the Arab rapprochement with Iran. Iran's 'advance notice' allowed Qatar to shut its airspace an hour before the attacks. Moreover, the US has spent the last week removing its aircraft from the base. By June 19, there were reportedly less than five American aircraft left at Al-Udeid. Iran's Israel challenge While the US strikes were the first American military attacks on Iranian soil in history, it is Israel's sustained attacks which have imposed the most substantial costs. Iran now faces an active threat to the Supreme Leader, attacks on its military, energy, and nuclear sites, and the elimination of key IRGC senior leaders. Its homeland defences have all but been decimated. However, while Ali Khamenei has reportedly named his successors in the event of his own demise, the IRGC has reorganised itself enough to sustain its missile salvos against Israel. For Iran, this is both symbolically and substantially important. Its threshold of success is lower, defined simply by its ability to hit Israel, beating both American air defence units in the region, and Israel's multi-layered AD systems. Following the US strikes, the IRGC for the first time employed its homegrown Kheybar Shekan solid-fuel missiles against Israel. This is what triggered a larger-than-before Israeli salvo on Monday. Unlike the US, which declared its one-time operation complete and successful, Israel's campaign continues to be fought with the maximal objectives of both Iranian nuclear dismantlement and regime change. Despite contradictory statements coming from the White House, Washington evidently remains unwilling to support the latter objective. Moreover, any bombing campaign, let alone a one-off strike, is likely to only delay, not end, Iran's road to a nuclear weapon. It is this clear inference that has always pushed both the US and Europe to seek negotiations with Tehran, despite the severe imbalance in conventional military power. What did not happen Despite issuing threats to this end, Tehran in the end did not close — or even try to close — the Strait of Hormuz, as has always been the case. The Strait is vital for both global and Iranian energy needs, and even now, the Iranian position is not dire enough to warrant a blockade. What is more interesting is the complete absence of its proxies in the Iranian retaliation. While the Yemeni Houthis declared an end to their April ceasefire with the US, the group has not yet resumed attacks against US shipping. The Houthis have thus far shown a marked ability to start/halt attacks on their own terms. On the other hand, Iran's Lebanon-based proxy, Hezbollah, has consistently maintained ambiguity, especially in the light of its significant internal challenges. Even after the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel, Hezbollah engaged only in calibrated rocket and drone attacks, drawing Israeli retaliation at a level it could absorb. Hassan Nasrallah did not commit to a full-scale war — until Israel initiated it in the second half of 2024, and killed Nasrallah himself. On June 20, Hezbollah's current chief, Naim Qassem, expressed strong solidarity with Iran amid Israel's attacks, but committed only to 'act as we see fit' — retaining the ambiguity that the group has now preferred for the past 20 months. In Iraq, Iran has cultivated the Hashd-al-Shaabi as an umbrella proxy group since 2019, after their successful campaign against ISIS in Iraq. The government in Baghdad, though firmly opposed to the Israeli and American aggression against Tehran, has long worked to remove Iraq as a proxy battleground, and to potentially integrate the Hashd, which has a strength of about 50,000 fighters collectively, into Iraq's armed forces. While US bases in Iraq were most expected to bear the brunt of any Iranian retaliation, Iran evidently did not press this militia into action, much like in January 2020. That month, after the US assassinated Iran's Maj Gen Qassem Soleimani, the IRGC launched missiles directly at US bases at Ain-al-Assad and Erbil in Iraq but excluded Hashd from an operational role. The Americans did not suffer any casualties, and chose not to escalate — then too Iran had telegraphed its impending attack. Not using its proxies, arguably allows Iran a greater ability to calibrate its actions, with relatively lesser risk of inadvertent escalation. But the attack on Al-Udeid is markedly different from the Iranian 2020 action in Iraq. The Al-Udeid base is the US military's crown jewel in the Middle East. The 29 year old self-sufficient base houses 10,000 troops from multiple countries and is the nerve-centre for US operations in the region. However, like in 2020, the US has recognised Iran's need to save face, and has refrained from escalating in response — as Trump's message makes amply evident. What now? With Israel keeping up its attacks, it is uncertain whether Iran will remain committed to its offer — which stood between June 13 and June 22 — to negotiate if the Israelis stop their assaults. Iran is close to withdrawing from the NPT and suspending cooperation with the IAEA, which indicates that the US attacks may have made it even more determined to pursue a nuclear weapon. However, Iran's economic imperatives for negotiations remain. In the larger scheme of things, the developments of the past few days might have convinced the Arab states in the Middle East of the value of nuclear deterrence. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have long worried about an Iranian nuclear weapon and Iranian or Houthi-led attacks against their energy sites, the Israeli actions have potentially created a new threat-in-being. The UAE completed the first nuclear power plant of the Arab world last year, and Saudi is on the road to its own. One downstream impact of the Israeli aggression against Iran may be an increase in the collective Arab anxiety, regardless of their recent rapprochement with Israel.
India Gazette
43 minutes ago
- India Gazette
Air India Express diverts flights after Qatar airspace suspension
New Delhi [India], June 24 (ANI): Air India Express on Monday diverted its Doha-bound flight from Kochi to Muscat and returned another flight from Kannur due to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East and the temporary suspension of Qatar's airspace, the airline said. 'As a result of the ongoing situation in the Middle East and the suspension of Qatar airspace, Air India Express has diverted our Doha-bound flight from Kochi to Muscat and returned our flight bound from Kannur. We have no other flights bound for Qatar. Air India Express has no aircraft on the ground in Qatar,' a spokesperson with the airline said in a statement. 'We are monitoring the situation closely and will take all necessary precautions for the safety and security of our guests and crew, with input from the relevant authorities. We regret the inconvenience due to circumstances beyond our control and request guests to update their contact details for real time updates and check their flight status on or Chat with Tia for cancellations and refund options,' the spokesperson added. A major escalation unfolded in the Middle East on Monday after Iran reportedly launched multiple missiles targeting US military installations in Qatar and Iraq, including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar--the largest US military installation in the region, according to a CNN report. The development came in response to US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities -- Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow -- in the early hours of Sunday. Two officials familiar with the situation confirmed to CNN that the US is tracking multiple missiles launched from Iran. A White House official said that US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine are currently in the Situation Room, closely monitoring the unfolding events. Earlier, Iran's state TV reported that Iran had begun an operation against a US base in Qatar. Samaa TV, citing Iranian state TV, dubbed this operation against US bases in the region as 'Operation Basharat al-Fath'. According to CNN, US personnel at the embassies in Qatar and Bahrain are in 'duck and cover' as Iran launches retaliatory missiles toward Qatar and Iraq. The Qatari foreign ministry wrote on X that its government had temporarily shut down its airspace amid the heightened tensions. The move follows Iran's announcement of retaliation against the United States, which has heightened security concerns across the Gulf region. The US Embassy in Doha has already issued alerts to its citizens, advising them to remain in secure shelters until further notice. (ANI)
India Gazette
43 minutes ago
- India Gazette
Israel-Iran conflict: NCP's Supriya Sule calls for de-escalation, peace
Pune (Maharashtra) [India], June 23 (ANI): Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) MP Supriya Sule on Monday called for de-escalation and peace amid the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. Speaking to ANI, Sule said, 'The whole world, geopolitics is in a crisis, whichever side you are. I think we should all urge de-escalation and peace. It's all very alarming; the less we speak, the more we hear. Sule emphasised that the Indian government has already intervened and is seeking de-escalation. 'The Government of India has intervened and is asking for de-escalation. The only way forward is de-escalation,' she stated. Meanwhile, former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran echoed similar sentiments, highlighting the need for India to play a bigger role in shaping a new world order. 'I hope that in the days to come, the wisdom of India is brought to bear on this kind of situation and that we play a bigger role as we can in terms of the making of a new world order,' Saran said. Saran expressed concerns about the current global disorder, noting that norms of interstate relations have been abandoned. 'Instead of a global order, we have great global disorder,' he stated. 'The kind of human suffering that has resulted, for example, in Gaza, what may happen, for example, in Iran, so these are very troubled times, and India also faces a very challenging situation.' These statements came after the US joined the conflict between Israel and Iran and bombed Iran's three underground nuclear facilities. Earlier in the day, Israeli Air Force fighter jets carried out strikes on command centres and assets belonging to the Internal Security Forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Tehran, Iran, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said in a statement. As part of the operation, the headquarters of the Basij were targeted. The Basij is identified as one of the IRGC's central armed bases of power and is responsible for enforcing Islamic law and reporting civilians who violate it to regime authorities. Additionally, the Alborz Corps--tasked with securing several cities in the Tehran District and ensuring the regime's stability--was struck, along with the Intelligence and General Security Police under the Internal Security Forces, which the IDF described as integral components of the regime's military forces. 'These command centres have a significant military effect and additionally they impact the regime's ability to impose control,' the IDF stated, adding that the strikes harmed the Iranian regime's military capabilities. Building on the outcome of these strikes, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the developments, stating on Sunday that Israel is 'very close' to achieving its goals in Iran. He claimed significant damage had been inflicted on Iran's ballistic missile program and nuclear facilities, according to The Times of Israel. (ANI)
