Gold price outlook: Is yellow metal poised for a rise amid new tariff war concerns?
Gold price outlook: Gold Futures on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) closed 0.02 per cent or ₹ 21 lower on Friday, 23 May 2025, after a rally fueled by the renewed trade tensions in the global economy over US President Donald Trump's stance with the European Union tariffs.
Gold Futures for the June 2025 contract closed 0.02 per cent lower at ₹ 96,400 per 10 grams as of Friday, 23 May 2025, compared to ₹ 96,421 at the previous commodity market close, according to the data collected from MCX.
Gold prices in India and the US-based Comex gold rates jumped as investors' tensions renewed over US President Donald Trump's proposal of a 50 per cent tariff on imports from the European Union starting 1 June 2025. Trump also threatened Apple that the federal government would impose a minimum of 25 per cent tariffs if the iPhone maker fails to relocate smartphone production to the United States.
In times of uncertainty, investors pull their money out of high-risk assets like equity and derivatives markets in search of safe-haven investments like government treasuries and gold.
Commodity experts are eyeing a 'bullish' outlook for the precious yellow metal with key economic indicators like the looming trade tensions and the ongoing trade war between the United States and other world nations.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, expects the rise in gold prices to continue into the month of June 2025, with key drivers like the U.S. credit downgrade, continued Chinese central bank gold purchases, trade tensions, recession fears, and robust safe-haven demand in focus for the precious yellow metal.
'The uptrend in gold appears poised to continue into June. A break below $3,100/oz looks increasingly unlikely,' said the commodities market expert.
'Looking ahead, markets will closely watch next week's U.S. economic data releases, including consumer confidence, Q1 GDP (preliminary), and minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting. While any progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations could offer temporary relief to risk assets, gold may continue to attract safe-haven inflows. The SPDR Gold ETF remains a key barometer for institutional sentiment. In the near term, Comex gold prices could test the $3,380–$3,430/oz range,' said Trivedi.
Colin Shah, the Managing Director of Kama Jewelry, said that the gold prices were volatile last week due to the weakening US Dollar and the rising tensions about the fiscal outlook of the United States.
'Moving forward to next week, the outlook for gold remains bullish with a possibility for a potential short-term correction. International Prices are expected to trade in the range of $3300-3400/Oz, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and an uncertain outlook over US fiscal policies, signalling economic instability in the biggest economy of the world,' he said.
The precious yellow metal is likely to hover in the range of ₹ 95,000 to ₹ 96,000 per 10 grams for the upcoming week.
'Domestic Prices can hover in the range of ₹ 95,000-96,000/10 gms. For silver, prices may remain relatively stable, unless any major economic development takes precedence,' said Shah.
Read all stories by Anubhav Mukherjee
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
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