Brent crude prices to remain at $70 per barrel in FY26 despite Israel-Iran conflict: Report
New Delhi: Despite recent volatility and rising conflicts between Israel and Iran, Brent crude oil prices are expected to average around $70 per barrel in FY26, according to a report by Emkay Research.
The report stated that the oil markets remain fundamentally well supplied, with rising production levels from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries.
It said "we continue to assume Brent price at USD70/bbl for FY26. Fundamentally, oil markets are well supplied with rising production." This steady supply is expected to help stabilise prices in the coming weeks, even though geopolitical risks may cause short-term volatility.
The report noted that Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear sites and personnel had initially triggered a sharp 12-13 per cent jump in oil prices, with Brent reaching close to USD 80/bbl.
Since then, prices have settled around USD 75/bbl, despite ongoing attacks from both sides. Iran has responded by hitting Israeli cities with missiles, and Israel has intensified its strikes on Iran. Signals from the US administration regarding a ceasefire remain unclear.
According to the report, unless there is lasting damage to oil and gas infrastructure, similar to earlier patterns seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, oil prices are likely to stabilise. A ceasefire could even bring Brent prices down below USD 70/bbl.
The report also highlighted that Iran has partially shut its South Pars gas field following Israeli attacks. A major fuel depot and a gas refinery were hit, but the impact seems limited to domestic markets. Israel has suspended operations in two of its gas fields that export to Egypt and Jordan.
As a result, spot LNG prices have increased to around USD 13.5/mmbtu, compared to USD 12/mmbtu before the conflict.
The report further noted that oil markets in 2025 have remained well supplied with rising inventories. Although near-term volatility may continue, the average Brent crude price for the year is still expected to be around USD 70/bbl.
At this price level, both upstream oil players and oil marketing companies (OMCs) are in a safe zone.
However, the report believed OMCs offer a more attractive valuation and better risk-reward profile.
The report also flagged concerns over the gas market, as the early onset of monsoons has impacted demand, making the gas outlook uncertain.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Times of Oman
23 minutes ago
- Times of Oman
China confirms coordination with Oman on Iran-Israel de-escalation
Muscat: China' Foreign Ministry said that the escalating confrontation between Iran and Israel negatively impacts regional peace and stability, noting that it continues its communication with the Sultanate of Oman and the parties involved in the conflict to de-escalate tensions as quickly as possible. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that Israel's actions violate international law and the norms governing international relations, infringe upon Iran's sovereignty and security, and undermine regional peace and stability. He further noted that the conflict has disrupted the process of indirect negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear issue. He added that at this critical juncture, the international community especially countries in the region must continue to unify efforts in support of justice, build global momentum to oppose war, call for peace, and promote a political resolution.
Times of Oman
an hour ago
- Times of Oman
Third group of Omani citizens return home safely from Iran
Muscat: In a continued effort to facilitate the safe return of Omani Citizens, Oman Foreign Ministry announced the successful arrival of 195 Omani citizens from Bandar Abbas, Iran, to Khasab Port as part of the third phase of an approved evacuation plan. The operation, carried out with close coordination between Omani authorities and diplomatic missions, also extended humanitarian support to 158 nationals of other countries who were allowed passage through Oman under the current regional circumstances. In a parallel initiative, 155 Omani citizens and a number of foreign nationals were returned by the flight from the Republic of Iraq to Oman, in collaboration with relevant agencies and the Omani Embassy in Baghdad. The Ministry reaffirmed its ongoing commitment alongside its embassies abroad to complete the remaining stages of the evacuation plan, aiming to ensure the safe return of all Omanis to their homeland.
Times of Oman
2 hours ago
- Times of Oman
Deposits by Indians in Swiss Banks fall nearly 18% over last 10 years: Swiss National Bank Data
New Delhi: Deposits of Indian customers in Swiss banks have declined by around 18 per cent over the past decade, according to the latest figures released by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The data highlighted a drop from approximately 425 million Swiss francs in 2015 to 346 million Swiss francs in 2024. The SNB data also showed that Indian deposits had seen a sharp rise during the COVID-19 period, touching a 10-year high of around 602 million Swiss francs. However, the deposits started declining after the pandemic peak. In 2023, deposits stood at 309 million Swiss francs, but in 2024, it grows by 37 million Swiss francs to reach 346 million Swiss francs. Despite this annual rise, the overall trend over the last decade remains downward. However, the decline in deposits is not unique to India. Several other major economies also witnessed a reduction in funds deposit in Swiss banks by their nationals. For instance, deposits by UK nationals fell from 44 billion Swiss francs in 2015 to 31 billion Swiss francs in 2024. Chinese deposits also saw a decline, reducing from 5.01 billion Swiss francs to 4.3 billion Swiss francs over the same period. The neighbouring countries of India Pakistan and Bangladesh also saw decline, deposits held by Pakistani nationals in Swiss banks have witnessed a steep decline over the last ten years. According to the data deposits by Pakistanis stood at 947 million Swiss francs in 2015 but have dropped significantly to 241 million Swiss francs by 2024, a fall of nearly 75 per cent. A similar trend was observed in the case of Bangladeshi nationals. Their deposits in Swiss banks declined from 48 million Swiss francs in 2015 to just 12.6 million Swiss francs in 2024, marking a drop of over 73 per cent. The decline reflects a reducing trend of foreign deposits in Swiss banks it can be due to various reasons like tightening regulations, increased scrutiny, and changes in international financial transparency norms. Saudi Arabian deposits nearly halved during the 10-year period, from 8.3 billion Swiss francs in 2015 to 4.8 billion Swiss francs in 2024. The most significant drop was seen in deposits by American nationals. Their deposits in Swiss banks dropped steeply from 64.2 billion Swiss francs in 2015 to 24.4 billion Swiss francs in 2024, a decline of about 62 per cent. The data highlighted a broader trend of declining foreign deposits in Swiss banks, possibly reflecting greater transparency, international regulations, and shifts in global financial preferences.
