IEX suffers worst single-day loss since listing, down 26%. Should you buy the dip?
Indian Energy Exchange
(
IEX
) tanked 26% on Thursday, logging their worst intraday single-day performance since listing in 2017. The stock is on track for its seventh consecutive session of losses, extending the declines to 33% in this period.
Hitting their 52-week low of Rs 139.02 today, IEX saw massive sell-off with nearly 3 crore shares changing hands on the NSE around 1 pm.
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Today's fall is attributed to the
Central Electricity Regulatory Commission
(CERC) formally approving the implementation of market coupling for India's power sector. The regulatory development came just hours ahead of IEX's first-quarter earnings for FY26, scheduled later today.
In an order issued late Wednesday, the CERC said it would initiate market coupling in a phased manner, beginning with the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) by January 2026. This move follows extensive consultations with Grid-India and other power sector stakeholders.
In an order issued late Wednesday, the CERC said it would initiate market coupling in a phased manner, beginning with the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) by January 2026. This move follows extensive consultations with Grid-India and other power sector stakeholders.
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Market coupling is aimed at unifying price discovery by pooling bids from multiple power exchanges and clearing them centrally. The mechanism is expected to improve efficiency and reduce regional price disparities, but it may also disrupt the existing revenue model for dominant players like IEX.
Should you buy the dip?
Currently, IEX operates independently as a leading player in the DAM and Real-Time Market (RTM). The introduction of coupling would mean bids from IEX and other exchanges will now be centrally matched, potentially eroding IEX's competitive advantage.
Bernstein downgraded its target price to Rs 122 from Rs 160, maintaining a 'Market-Perform' rating. The brokerage noted, 'Coupling… as bad as it gets,' citing risks to IEX's transaction charges and market share. 'With the moat of liquidity gone, the only way to compete is transaction charge,' it added.
UBS, however, maintained a 'Buy' call with a target price of Rs 285. While acknowledging the move was a negative surprise, the firm pointed out that the Grid-India report estimated only a 0.01–0.3% benefit in terms of savings or volume cleared. It also noted that RTM coupling would be considered in later phases. In FY25, DAM and RTM together contributed nearly 80% of IEX's revenue.
Axis Capital
highlighted the earnings risk, estimating that had market coupling been in place in FY25, IEX's EPS could have been around 30% lower due to loss of market share.
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