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College basketball rankings: UConn, St. John's surge in way-too-early Top 25

College basketball rankings: UConn, St. John's surge in way-too-early Top 25

Fox Sports01-05-2025

The quality of play in college basketball has grown tremendously in recent years. One reason for that is NIL (name, image and likeness) dollars and the impact it has had in keeping some potential pros around for another season. Those players can make more money in college and gain more for their profile than a potential trip to the G League to continue development.
The flip side is the chaotic climate within the sport, an open market that has increased to dollar figures that seemed unfathomable even two-to-three years ago. But, that's the reality of where things stand: Roster continuity with talent is like buried treasure in this sport, while having the great white whale, a top-shelf donor who can lead the bankrolling efforts for a roster, is the invaluable asset you need to compete with the best sharks during portal season. As one coach told me, "It's challenging, but this is still an amazing sport. I hate when coaches complain because we chose this life."
And look at it this way: While changes are needed, the free agency aspect has created buzz around college hoops in late April and into May that we had not seen before. Over 2,500 players entering the portal, though? Well, that could use shifting, and I offer some possible solutions below:
As for what has happened in the offseason, it's fascinating when looking at the top of my rankings, because the top-two teams embody the two ways to stay ahead in this day and age: keeping a bevy of talent or outdoing everybody else in the portal.
Purdue has done an outstanding job with roster continuity, bringing back the preseason national player of the year front-runner in Braden Smith, who was this past year's Bob Cousy Award winner and the Big Ten Player of the Year. Smith had 15 assists against Houston in the Sweet 16, which was the latest testament to his leadership, playmaking ability and poise against any defense. This past season, he became the second player in NCAA history to record at least 550 points, 300 assists and 150 rebounds in a season, joining Murray State's Ja Morant as the only other player that can say that. But the fact Smith has Fletcher Loyer (13.8 PPG) as a backcourt mate is scary for everybody else, not to mention a veteran stud in Trey Kaufman-Renn, a high-impact transfer in Oscar Cluff, and an intriguing big man in Daniel Jacobsen, who is set to return from a season-ending leg injury that cut his freshman campaign short. There's a lot to like about Matt Painter's team, provided the Boilermakers get enough complementary shooting.
If the Boilers are the continuity champs, the transfer portal championship should be handed out on Utopia Parkway in Queens. Rick Pitino and St. John's, the reigning Big East regular-season and tournament champions, have the No. 1-ranked portal class in the nation, according to 247 Sports. The Johnnies reeled in an All-Big East First Team forward in Bryce Hopkins to make a big early splash. They acquired a rising sophomore who looks the part of a future NBA first-round pick in North Carolina transfer Ian Jackson, and they added another sophomore guard with elite upside in former five-star recruit Joson Sanon.
Perimeter shooting was the priority for this St. John's team, and Pitino and his staff addressed those areas, but they weren't done there, also adding senior guard Oziyah Sellers from Stanford, who averaged 14 points per game in the ACC this past year. Then there's a stalwart defender and supreme athlete in Dillon Mitchell, and the Big Sky Most Valuable Player, Dylan Darling. And oh, by the way, in the world of "sometimes the best gets are the ones you already have," All-American candidate Zuby Ejiofor returns for his senior season, looking to lead the Johnnies on a deeper NCAA Tournament run.
The biggest portal winners after St. John's were Kentucky, Louisville and Iowa. Do not sleep on Ben McCollum in Year 1 at the helm in Iowa City after he brought in one of the most dynamic scorers in the country in Bennett Stirtz, along with a sharpshooter in Brendan Hausen and Horizon League Player of the Year Alvaro Folgueiras. They're the first team out of my top 25. In terms of portal losers, Memphis losing PJ Haggerty was a big blow to the Tigers, while Arizona saw six players enter the portal and Alabama saw Mouhamed Dioubate and Jarin Stevenson leave.
With that, here is a look at my updated way-too-early rankings: 1. Purdue
Can I lend you one more Braden Smith statistic? He broke the Big Ten record for assists in conference play this past season, dishing out 175 of them, which smashed the previous record set by Michigan State's Cassius Winston (157). And yes, he could break his own record in the upcoming year.
St. John's rise to the top is happening because of Pitino and the school's lead donor, Mike Repole, whose horse "Grande" will be in this weekend's Kentucky Derby. The founder of Vitamin Water has been invaluable to St. John's, but his money begins and ends with his faith in the Hall of Famer. Pitino has made the Johnnies matter again nationally and Madison Square Garden has once again turned into one of the toughest home-court environments.
Emanuel Sharp and JoJo Tugler are back from a Final Four team and, while we await the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline of May 28 for star Milos Uzan, Houston has the nation's No. 1-ranked recruiting class, according to 247 Sports, headlined by Link Academy product Chris Cenac Jr. With Creighton transfer Pop Isaacs coming in to help their offense, the Cougars will have a go-to bucket-getting guard, who, when healthy, is very hard to stop.
Alex Karaban is coming back for another shot at a third national championship. Solo Ball is back for his junior season and poised for a big campaign. Tarris Reed returns and now has a year in Storrs under his belt, while Dan Hurley and his staff made a transfer splash with former Georgia guard Silas Demary. Another transfer in Malachi Smith from Dayton should help with ball-handling duties, while the Huskies welcome in a great freshman class. If you don't know the name Braylon Mullins, you soon will, and I'm intrigued to see what 7-footer Eric Reibe brings to the table.
Having All-American JT Toppin back in the fold in Lubbock instantly means the Red Raiders can reach the Final Four, especially when considering what's around him. While we are uncertain about what's next for Darrion Williams, who's testing the draft waters and is in the portal, sophomore Christian Anderson is poised for a big year and LeJuan Watts (Washington State) and Donovan Atwell (UNCG) headline a top-25 portal class.
Dusty May is building something special in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines reeled in one of the biggest fish in the portal with UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg, who is testing the NBA Draft waters and could be a first-round pick. If he returns to school, he will make Michigan one of the nation's best teams. Last year, the 6-foot-9 forward averaged 18-11-4 per game. Getting Morez Johnson from Illinois helps the frontline, while Elliot Cadeau still has his best basketball ahead of him after things didn't go as planned at North Carolina. With Nimari Burnett and Roddy Gayle back, Michigan has good continuity as well.
Pat Kelsey laid the foundation for the Cardinals. Now, the pieces are aligning for him to take this program on an NCAA Tournament run. Kelsey ushers in the nation's No. 3 transfer portal class with all-conference players Ryan Conwell (Xavier), Isaac McKneely (Virginia) and Adrian Wooley (Kennesaw State) on the way, while five-star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. enters with high expectations. To get J'Vonne Hadley and a healthy Kasean Pryor back is huge for continuity and the frontcourt. Louisville is the front-runner in the ACC.
Not to be outdone, Mark Pope, and what sources tell FOX Sports is a bankroll of over $20 million, has led to a star-studded Wildcats roster. Kentucky has the nation's fourth-ranked transfer class, according to 247 Sports. If Otega Oweh returns for his senior season, he'll be right in the mix for SEC Player of the Year. When you combine that with a guy who averaged 17 PPG in Jaland Lowe, a national champion in Denzel Aberdeen out of Florida, a big man with a ton of upside in Jayden Quaintance and intriguing talents Mouhamed Dioubate (Alabama) and Kam Williams (Tulane), there's a lot to like about this team. And don't forget about top-20 freshman Jasper Johnson, who is a blur in transition and a guy who is wired to score. Now, the pressure is on Pope in Year 2 to make it all come together after a Sweet 16 season.
The Blue Devils will go from the Cooper Flagg Show to the Cameron-and-Cayden Boozer Show in the upcoming year. Cameron is among the best prospects in the sport, a 6-9 forward who is polished and strong with an inside-out game, a willingness to defend and the versatility to flourish. Jon Scheyer knows continuity is big in this sport. That's why guys like Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans coming back helps. Washington State transfer Cedric Coward (17.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 3.7 APG) was an excellent addition to bolster the perimeter with proven talent.
Look out for John Calipari and the Razorbacks. Coming off a magical ride to the Sweet 16, the Hogs are slated to get D.J. Wagner, Trevon Brazile, Billy Richmond and Karter Knox back, while a pair of five-star freshmen guards in Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas will bolster the offense. The two are prototypical Calipari one-and-done guys who can come in and change the game with their skills. Acuff is a dynamic ball-handler who has a variety of ways to make plays for his teammates and drive the lane, while Thomas is the toughest shotmaker in the national freshman class. Throw in Malique Ewin from Florida State and Nick Pringle from South Carolina and Calipari addressed his interior needs with experience via the portal.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta .
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Spartans fans will be on the edge of their seats entering the year, however, given the team's 5-7 finish in 2024 and current recruiting struggles. Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire 14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights FPI Rating: 3.5 (No. 55 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 5.8 - 6.2 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.1 % Chance to Make CFP: 1.7 Rutgers' streak of two consecutive bowl trips and three in four years could come to an end in 2025. The team was forced to rebuild most of its defense after a senior-heavy group moved on after the 2024 season. With quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis leading a low-risk, low-reward offense, a 6-6 finish would be a major win. 13. UCLA Bruins FPI Rating: 4.6 (No. 47 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 5.4 - 6.6 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.1 % Chance to Make CFP: 1.9 UCLA may be a bit underrated by FPI. After the team showed well against a gauntlet schedule in 2024, head coach DeShaun Foster and his staff got a full offseason of roster movement, headlined by the addition of former Tennessee starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava. Foster had to scramble after taking over for Chip Kelly in February of last year. More continuity and a manageable schedule could lead to a breakthrough season. Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire 12. Illinois Fighting Illini FPI Rating: 5.0 (No. 44 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 6.8 - 5.2 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.6 % Chance to Make CFP: 3.8 This is one spot where FPI significantly differs from other rankings and preseason projections. Illinois is a popular College Football Playoff pick. The team returns most of a group that finished 2024 with double-digit wins, plus is set to face a manageable schedule. All signs point toward a much better finish than mid-40s nationally and No. 13 in the Big Ten. 11. Minnesota Golden Gophers FPI Rating: 5.2 (No. 43 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 6.9 - 5.2 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.3 % Chance to Make CFP: 4.3 A 7-5 finish and mid-40s ranking would be more of the same for Minnesota. The program has made a bowl game in each of the last six non-COVID seasons. At the same time, it has surpassed 10 wins only once during that time (11 wins in 2019). Unless redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey breaks out unexpectedly, seven or eight wins seem likely. 10. Iowa Hawkeyes FPI Rating: 6.3 (No. 39 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 6.2 - 5.8 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.6 % Chance to Make CFP: 3.7 The Big Ten impressively boasts 10 teams within the nation's top 40. Iowa is a write-in for that category every year, regardless of the team's specific makeup. It put all its chips into Football Championship Subdivision transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski this offseason. If he hits, the Hawkeyes could return to a 10-win mark. Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire 9. Wisconsin Badgers FPI Rating: 6.3 (No. 38 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 5.6 - 6.5 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.4 % Chance to Make CFP: 2.6 This is where team quality shouldn't be confused with record and resume. Wisconsin could very well be a better team than it's been over the last two years under Luke Fickell. But given a schedule that ranks among the toughest in the sport, a bowl trip would feel like a major win. 8. Indiana Hoosiers FPI Rating: 8.3 (No. 31 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 7.5 - 4.5 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.9 % Chance to Make CFP: 8.9 File FPI into the group of metrics that are predicting a bit of a regression from Indiana in 2025. Most agree that the Hoosiers' 11-win 2024 season will be tough to replicate, given the team's schedule alone. The better question is, how high is Indiana's floor under Curt Cignetti? Another nine-win season could seriously change how we view the program. 7. Washington Huskies FPI Rating: 8.8 (No. 27 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 7.1 - 4.9 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.8 % Chance to Make CFP: 8.1 Washington is a team to watch in 2025. Like UCLA, the Huskies will benefit from a full year of roster improvement and overall continuity. Washington head coach Jedd Fisch was thrust into a challenging situation last offseason after Kalen DeBoer left for the Alabama job. His team then showed significant promise through the 2024 campaign. Young quarterback Demond Williams Jr. should headline lists of breakout candidates for 2025. Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire 6. Nebraska Cornhuskers FPI Rating: 9.3 (No. 25 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 7.5 - 4.5 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 1.5 % Chance to Make CFP: 10.3 It isn't a proper college football offseason without high expectations for Nebraska. The team returns 61% of production from a 2024 group that broke the program's extended bowl drought. Its 2025 chances rest on the arm of sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola, who will need to live up to his five-star billing. More than a 10% chance to reach the CFP feels a bit steep. Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis and opinions on Cornhuskers Wire 5. USC Trojans FPI Rating: 13.0 (No. 19 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 8.3 - 3.9 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 4.2 % Chance to Make CFP: 21.0 USC is a high-ceiling, low-floor team in 2025. If its defense takes a major step forward in year two under top coordinator D'Anton Lynn, and if Lincoln Riley develops another NFL passer, the team could contend for the conference. As we saw in 2024, it could also very well be on the fringe of bowl eligibility. Given the program's recent momentum, more signs point to the former. Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire 4. Michigan Wolverines FPI Rating: 14.6 (No. 17 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 8.4 - 3.7 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 6.0 % Chance to Make CFP: 25.3 Michigan is in a tier by itself. It's a bona fide CFP and conference title contender, though it falls far below the conference's top three teams. Quarterback play will decide the Wolverines' fate, especially if five-star freshman Bryce Underwood is under center. Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire 3. Oregon Ducks FPI Rating: 20.5 (No. 6 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 10.0 - 2.4 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 19.1 % Chance to Make CFP: 57.5 Oregon will have a tough time repeating as Big Ten champion. The team lost numerous top contributors from its stellar 2024 team. It now returns just 43% of production (No. 104 in the nation). While the number does not automatically mean a regression, it makes Oregon a team to monitor as the season continues. The Ducks will still be a CFP contender, but a national title run may be out of the picture. Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire 2. Penn State Nittany Lions FPI Rating: 21.5 (No. 5 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 10.2 - 2.2 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 25.1 % Chance to Make CFP: 63.8 Penn State is the second in the projected three-team race for the conference. Returning stars QB Drew Allar and RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen lead that projection, as does the program's terrific history on defense. Penn State finally broke through last season. 2025 could see an even further step forward. Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire 1. Ohio State Buckeyes FPI Rating: 23.8 (No. 4 overall) Projected Win-Loss: 10.4 - 2.2 % Chance to Win Big Ten: 40.3 % Chance to Make CFP: 70.6 While Ohio State returns just 48% of production from its 2024 team that won the national title, it's hard to expect the program to regress significantly. All-world WR Jeremiah Smith and star S Caleb Downs anchor an offensive and defensive unit, respectively, that each projects among the conference's best. Ohio State is currently the class of the sport, so it deserves the benefit of the doubt at positions facing turnover. Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes and opinion

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