logo
Crisis in the copper chain: innovation, geopolitics and Australia's role

Crisis in the copper chain: innovation, geopolitics and Australia's role

Yahoo07-07-2025
As demand for clean energy tech rises, the global copper market is facing a supply-demand gap that analysts warn could be near impossible to close if production remains at its current levels.
Adding to the market volatility are US president Donald Trump's threatened tariffs, and his executive order to fast-track US exploration and mining of critical minerals, including copper, in international waters.
In the face of supply chain uncertainty, countries are prioritising sovereign access to copper. This means targeting new or previously inaccessible deposits, often deeper and more remote than previously seen, while innovators rush to develop technology that could make lower-grade ore economically viable.
While Australia is by no means the biggest copper producer (ranking eighth globally in 2024), it is home to the world's second largest copper reserves, making it a key player in any long-term production strategy.
With questions over how nations will meet copper demand without triggering further instability, we look at the projects working to keep Australia's supply afloat in an uncertain time.
Currently, copper demand sits at around 25 million tonnes (mt) per year. However, estimates suggest that the market trajectory is pushing towards a demand of 50mt by 2050.
Ollie Brown, an economist at GlobalData, told Mining Technology that this demand, similar to other critical minerals, is primarily driven by electric vehicles, grid renovations and renewable energy initiatives.
Amid growing demand, he says the global copper market is defined by 'lagging supply', while Trump's threatened tariffs from the beginning of this year are 'rattling global prices.'
While Trump has not set a levy against copper specifically, he has made it clear that he wants to cut back on imports and increase domestic production.
In February 2025, he commissioned the US Department of Commerce to investigate potential national security risks of copper imports ─ the first step towards potentially curbing these goods.
While the tariffs and their impacts remain conjecture at this stage, Nicolas Psaroudis, APAC economist at GlobalData, told Mining Technology the threat of restrictions contribute to uncertainty and price volatility.
'Internationally, export restrictions could disrupt global copper supply chains,' he explains. 'A sudden drop in supply could tighten global scrap availability, drive up international prices, and strain smelters already facing concentrate shortages.'
If nothing else, the situation has proven an unwelcome reminder of the fact that global mineral supply chains remain vulnerable to the whims of trade tensions and has added to calls to bolster domestic production.
Lawrence M. Cathles, professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell University, says Western nations need to be more willing to expand operations to avoid market dependence.
'It's not enough to say copper is important while refusing to do the work,' says Cathles. 'We don't want anybody to control any major commodity, but just not wanting that isn't enough. You've got to have policies and plans in place to avoid undesirable situations – and part of that is mining in our own territory.'
Yet while Australia has no shortage of copper ore, the issue lies in accessing it.
According to Dan Wood, exploration geologist and University of Queensland (UQ) adjunct professor, one of the main challenges is finding copper ore that's viable for development.
'Almost all of the large deposits theoretically available to replace one of the top-ten producing mines that will close in the early-2050s have all failed at least one mining feasibility study,' he says.
These failures are mainly due to low ore grades and remoteness, as well as low copper prices. Even if prices rise enough to make low-grade copper development viable, Wood cautions that oversupply could trigger a feedback loop: more copper brings prices down, undoing the gains.
To make the most of Australia's deposits, Wood says more should be done to access deeper ore bodies. One potential method is caving, when the rock is 'undercut' or drilled beneath the surface and recovered as it falls.
While the practice is not uncommon - for instance, it is used in Sweden for iron ore - little is known about how to safely mine beyond a certain depth, and education and training around the method remains low.
'Caving isn't uncommon, but the scary thing is there are so few people left in the world who really understand it,' Wood states. 'If you go deeper than around 1.4 kilometers, there isn't much data on the rock stressors. Take Rio Tinto's Resolution deposit in Arizona. You have to go down nearly two kilometers before you reach the top of the ore, and the rocks that deep are nearly 100 degrees centigrade.'
Initiatives to train the next generation of caving miners do exist - for instance UQ has partnered with Rio Tinto and the University of Mongolia to scale up caving expertise at Rio's Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia. However, Wood warns the process is a long one.
'We're looking at a 20-year journey to end up with a cohort of properly trained and, most importantly, experienced caving engineers,' he says. 'This skills gap is serious and unless addressed will be a major drag on future copper supply towards 2050.'
Aside from education, technology may provide another route to increasing supply, with innovators looking to make low-grade ores viable development options.
One project, a collaboration between UQ and start-up Banksia Minerals Processing (BMP), is developing a more environmentally friendly means of extracting copper from low-grade resources.
The process relies on hydrometallurgy rather than pyrometallurgy (water rather than heat) to extract copper from the ore; dissolving, purifying and then recovering metals from liquid using electricity.
While the process itself isn't new, having been practiced in the late 1970s in the US, the team had a breakthrough in the purity of the copper produced, making it more viable for commercial deployment.
The method also addresses another issue plaguing copper miners - that of impurities.
Currently, smelters have strict regulations on how many impurities can be processed alongside the copper ore (with arsenic a particularly problematic contaminant).
James Vaughan, head of the university's Hydrometallurgy Research Group, explains the limits are getting increasingly difficult to meet.
'Miners are having to cherry pick ore bodies, and it's a significant limitation on the amount of material that can actually be pulled out of those mines,' he said. 'That's a problem when we need more and more copper."
While the typical smelting method sees arsenic exiting as a gas that can be harmful to both workers and the environment, using a water-based method stores the arsenic in a stable, and disposable, form.
By addressing this challenge, Leigh Staines, managing director of BMP, says the new technology could unlock copper resources previously deemed unfeasible.
'Our hypothesis is that more than half of known copper resources out there are restricted from development due to those smelter intake limitations,' she says. 'By enabling a feasible pathway for processing of those resources, we're then able to unlock the commercial viability of bringing that supply to market.'
The tech can be integrated into modular plants that are anticipated to be far cheaper to construct than traditional smelters ─in the order of hundreds of millions rather than billions ─ and running on an estimated 50% less energy.
As a result, the team say the project could pave the way for an economically viable onshore processing option, and bolster Australia's supply chain independence.
'We see a real opportunity from a sovereign supply perspective – gaining access to not only copper itself but the by-products from copper concentrate,' Staines says. 'In the longer term, if this takes off, I really do think it will become the new norm.'
Yet while innovations such as these show Australia is already on its way to unlocking copper's potential, another persistent concern is that without sufficient funding, even the best tech won't close the gap.
On the global stage, Arthur F. Thurnau, professor of mineral resources at the University of Michigan warns the West is underfunding its mining workforce.
'Governments in Australia, Canada, the EU and the US do not seem to fully appreciate the magnitude of the difference in education and training between these regions and China,' he says. 'Specifically, in the fields of geology and mining, China has more faculty and graduate students within a single university (such as the China University of Geosciences Beijing), than the sum of Australia, Canada, the EU and the US'
Without closing the gap, Thurnau warns that Western nations will be forever trying to catch up to China. '
For Cathles, government attitude is also an issue, though he points more towards a lack of realism in the demand for copper in the path to net zero.
'If the goal is to electrify everything and thereby dramatically increase copper demand - double or even triple it – you can't just suddenly mine more because the mining infrastructure cannot be expanded quickly,' he says.
Instead, he calls for long-term planning: building a skilled workforce and pursuing a more pragmatic clean energy transition that reduces pressure on supply chains.
There may be promising alternatives, he adds, such as battery chemistries that use less copper, pairing renewables with backup systems like gas-powered plants, or a focus on rolling out hybrid rather than fully electric vehicles. While these options may mean it takes longer to reach net zero, Cathles said they lessen the strain on copper production.
'Let's be sensible,' he says. 'We need grounded policies. We shouldn't place sudden, unrealistic demands on sectors that we know can't respond quickly.'
Whether through education, innovation, or a more measured path to net zero, one thing is clear: the world must confront the widening gap between copper demand and supply.
As Cathles and Thurnau both emphasise, the solution won't come from mining alone. It will require strategic investment in human capital, realistic energy policies, and a willingness to adapt. Without these, Western nations, including Australia, risk falling behind - not only in production capacity, but in their ability to lead a sustainable energy transition.
"Crisis in the copper chain: innovation, geopolitics and Australia's role" was originally created and published by Mining Technology, a GlobalData owned brand.
The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

What to expect, and what not to, at the UN meeting on an Israel-Palestinian two-state solution
What to expect, and what not to, at the UN meeting on an Israel-Palestinian two-state solution

Chicago Tribune

timea few seconds ago

  • Chicago Tribune

What to expect, and what not to, at the UN meeting on an Israel-Palestinian two-state solution

UNITED NATIONS — The U.N. General Assembly is bringing high-level officials together this week to promote a two-state solution to the decades-old Israel-Palestinian conflict that would place their peoples side by side, living in peace in independent nations. Israel and its close ally the United States are boycotting the two-day meeting, which starts Monday and will be co-chaired by the foreign ministers of France and Saudi Arabia. Israel's right-wing government opposes a two-state solution, and the United States has called the meeting 'counterproductive' to its efforts to end the war in Gaza. France and Saudi Arabia want the meeting to put a spotlight on the two-state solution, which they view as the only viable road map to peace, and to start addressing the steps to get there. The meeting was postponed from late June and downgraded from a four-day meeting of world leaders amid surging tensions in the Middle East, including Israel's 12-day war against Iran and the war in Gaza. 'It was absolutely necessary to restart a political process, the two-state solution process, that is today threatened, more threatened than it has ever been,' French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Sunday on CBS News' 'Face the Nation.' Here's what's useful to know about the upcoming gathering. The idea of dividing the Holy Land goes back decades. When the British mandate over Palestine ended, the U.N. partition plan in 1947 envisioned dividing the territory into Jewish and Arab states. Israel accepted the plan, but upon Israel's declaration of independence the following year, its Arab neighbors declared war and the plan was never implemented. Under a 1949 armistice, Jordan held control over the West Bank and east Jerusalem and Egypt over Gaza. Israel captured the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza in the 1967 Mideast war. The Palestinians seek those lands for a future independent state alongside Israel, and this idea of a two-state solution based on Israel's pre-1967 boundaries has been the basis of peace talks dating back to the 1990s. The two-state solution has wide international support. The logic behind it is that the populations of Israel, east Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza are divided equally between Jews and Palestinians. As President Donald Trump shows off his golf courses for Britain's leader, crisis in Gaza loomsThe establishment of an independent Palestine would leave Israel as a democratic country with a solid Jewish majority and grant the Palestinians their dream of self-determination. France and Saudi Arabia have said they want to put a spotlight on the two-state solution as the only viable path to peace in the Middle East — and they want to see a road map with specific steps, first ending the war in Gaza. Israeli strikes kill at least 36 people in Gaza, officials say, as some aid restrictions are easedThe co-chairs said in a document sent to U.N. members in May that the primary goal of the meeting is to identify actions by 'all relevant actors' to implement the two-state solution — and 'to urgently mobilize the necessary efforts and resources to achieve this aim, through concrete and time-bound commitments.' Saudi diplomat Manal Radwan, who led the country's delegation to the preparatory conference, said the meeting must 'chart a course for action, not reflection.' It must be 'anchored in a credible and irreversible political plan that addresses the root cause of the conflict and offers a real path to peace, dignity and mutual security,' she said. French President Emmanuel Macron has pushed for a broader movement toward a two-state solution in parallel with a recognition of Israel's right to defend itself. He announced late Thursday that France will recognize the state of Palestine officially at the annual gathering of world leaders at the U.N. General Assembly in late September. About 145 countries have recognized the state of Palestine. But Macron's announcement, ahead of Monday's meeting and amid increasing global anger over desperately hungry people in Gaza starting to die from starvation, makes France the most important Western power to do so. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects the two-state solution on both nationalistic and security grounds. Netanyahu's religious and nationalist base views the West Bank as the biblical and historical homeland of the Jewish people, while Israeli Jews overwhelmingly consider Jerusalem their eternal capital. The city's eastern side is home to Judaism's holiest site, along with major Christian and Muslim holy places. Hard-line Israelis like Netanyahu believe the Palestinians don't want peace, citing the second Palestinian uprising of the early 2000s, and more recently the Hamas takeover of Gaza two years after Israel withdrew from the territory in 2005. The Hamas takeover led to five wars, including the current and ongoing 21-month conflict. At the same time, Israel also opposes a one-state solution in which Jews could lose their majority. Netanyahu's preference seems to be the status quo, where Israel maintains overall control and Israelis have fuller rights than Palestinians, Israel deepens its control by expanding settlements, and the Palestinian Authority has limited autonomy in pockets of the West Bank. Netanyahu condemned Macron's announcement of Palestinian recognition, saying it 'rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy, just as Gaza became.' The Palestinians, who label the current arrangement 'apartheid,' accuse Israel of undermining repeated peace initiatives by deepening settlement construction in the West Bank and threatening annexation. That would harm the prospect of a contiguous Palestinian state and their prospects for independence. Ahmed Majdalani, a member of the PLO Executive Committee and close associate of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, said the meeting will serve as preparation for a presidential summit expected in September. It will take place either in France or at the U.N. on the sidelines of the high-level meeting, U.N. diplomats said. Majdalani said the Palestinians have several goals, first a 'serious international political process leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state.' The Palestinians also want additional international recognition of their state by major countries including Britain. But expect that to happen in September, not at Monday's meeting, Majdalani said. And he said they want economic and financial support for the Palestinian Authority and international support for the reconstruction and recovery of the Gaza Strip. All 193 U.N. member nations have been invited to attend the meeting and a French diplomat said about 40 ministers are expected. The United States and Israel are the only countries who are boycotting. The co-chairs have circulated an outcome document which could be adopted, and there could be some announcements of intentions to recognize a Palestinian state. But with Israel and the United States boycotting, there is no prospect of a breakthrough and the resumption of long-stalled negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians on an end to their conflict. Secretary-General António Guterres urged participants after the meeting was announced 'to keep the two-state solution alive.' And he said the international community must not only support a solution where independent states of Palestine and Israel live side-by-side in peace but 'materialize the conditions to make it happen.'

As President Donald Trump shows off his golf courses for Britain's leader, crisis in Gaza looms
As President Donald Trump shows off his golf courses for Britain's leader, crisis in Gaza looms

Chicago Tribune

timea few seconds ago

  • Chicago Tribune

As President Donald Trump shows off his golf courses for Britain's leader, crisis in Gaza looms

EDINBURGH, Scotland — President Donald Trump once suggested his golf course in Scotland 'furthers' the U.S.-U.K. relationship. Now he's getting the chance to prove it. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is meeting Monday with Trump at a golf property owned by the president's family near Turnberry in southwestern Scotland — then later traveling to Abderdeen, on the country's northeast coast, where there's another Trump golf course and a third is opening soon. During his first term in 2019, Trump posted of his Turnberry property, 'Very proud of perhaps the greatest golf course anywhere in the world. Also, furthers U.K. relationship!' Starmer is not a golfer, but toggling between Trump's Scottish courses shows the outsized influence the president puts on properties bearing his name — and on golf's ability to shape geopolitics. However, even as Trump may want to focus on showing off his golf properties, Starmer will try to center the conversation on more urgent global matters. He plans to urge Trump to press Israel to allow more aid into Gaza and attempt to end what Downing St. called 'the unspeakable suffering and starvation' in the territory, while pushing for a ceasefire in Israel's war with Hamas. Britain, along with France and Germany, has criticized Israel for 'withholding essential humanitarian assistance' as hunger spread in Gaza. Over the weekend, Starmer said Britain will take part in efforts led by Jordan to airdrop aid after Israel temporarily eased restrictions. But British Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds acknowledged Monday that only the U.S. has 'the leverage' to make a real difference in the conflict. Still, asked about the crisis in Gaza on Sunday night, Trump was largely dismissive — focused more on how he's not personally gotten credit for previous attempts to provide food aid. 'It's terrible. You really at least want to have somebody say, 'Thank you,'' Trump said. The president added, 'It makes you feel a little bad when you do that' without what he considered proper acknowledgement. Starmer is under pressure from his Labour Party lawmakers to follow France in recognizing a Palestinian state, a move both Israel and the U.S. have condemned. The British leader says the U.K. supports statehood for the Palestinians but that it must be 'part of a wider plan' for a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Israeli strikes kill at least 36 people in Gaza, officials say, as some aid restrictions are easedAlso on Monday's agenda, according to Starmer's office, are efforts to promote a possible peace deal to end fighting in Russia's war with Ukraine — particularly efforts at forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table in the next 50 days. Trump in the past sharply criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for also failing to express enough public gratitude toward U.S. support for his country, taking a similar tack he's now adopting when it comes to aid for Gaza. The president, though, has shifted away from that tone and more sharply criticized Putin and Russia in recent weeks. On Tuesday, Trump will be at the site of his new course near Aberdeen for an official ribbon-cutting. It opens to the public on Aug. 13 and tee times are already for sale — with the course betting that a presidential visit can help boost sales. What to expect, and what not to, at the UN meeting on an Israel-Palestinian two-state solutionProtesters have planned a demonstration in Balmedie, near Trump's existing Aberdeen golf course, after demonstrators took to the streets across Scotland on Saturday to decry the president's visit while he was golfing. Starmer and Trump are likely to find more common ground on trade issues. While China initially responded to Trump's tariff threats by retaliating with high import taxes of its own on U.S. goods, it has since begun negotiating to ease trade tensions. Starmer and his country have taken a far softer approach. He's gone out of his way to work with Trump, flattering the president repeatedly during a February visit to the White House, and teaming up to announce a joint trade framework on tariffs for some key products in May. Starmer and Trump then signed a trade agreement during the G7 summit in Canada that freed the U.K.'s aerospace sector from U.S. tariffs and used quotas to reduce them on auto-related industries from 25% to 10% while increasing the amount of U.S. beef it pledged to import. Discussions with Starmer follow a Trump meeting Sunday with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen at his Turnberry course. They announced a trade framework that will put 15% tariffs on most goods from both countries, though many major details remain pending. The president has for months railed against yawning U.S. trade deficits around the globe and sees tariffs as a way to try and close them in a hurry. But the U.S. ran an $11.4 billion trade surplus with Britain last year, meaning it exported more to the U.K. than it imported. Census Bureau figures this year indicate that the surplus could grow. There are still lingering U.S.-Britain trade issues that need fine-tuning. The deal framework from May said British steel would enter the U.S. duty-free, but it continues to face a 25% levy. U.K. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said Monday that 'negotiations have been going on on a daily basis' and 'there's a few issues to push a little bit further today,' though he downplayed expectations of a resolution. The leader of Scotland, meanwhile, said he will urge Trump to lift the current 10% tariff on Scotch whisky. First Minister John Swinney said the spirit's 'uniqueness' justified an exemption. Even as some trade details linger and both leaders grapple with increasingly difficult choices in Gaza and Ukraine, however, Starmer's staying on Trump's good side appears to be working — at least so far. 'The U.K. is very well-protected. You know why? Because I like them — that's their ultimate protection,' Trump said during the G7.

Investors celebrate trade deals inking higher tariffs
Investors celebrate trade deals inking higher tariffs

Axios

timea few seconds ago

  • Axios

Investors celebrate trade deals inking higher tariffs

President Trump announced a 15% tariff on the European Union on Sunday. Stocks edged higher on the news, as investors see the deal easing the risk of even steeper tariffs. Why it matters: While investors cheer the short-term clarity, they could be underestimating the long-term drag of higher tariffs on corporate earnings. Driving the news: The 15% tariff on E.U. goods comes alongside a 0% tariff rate on American exports to Europe. The deal also includes pledges from the E.U. to buy over $750 billion in U.S. energy, invest $600 billion more in the U.S. economy, and open markets to American manufacturers and defense firms. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said tariff deadlines more broadly are firm, which means they will go into effect August 1. Zoom in: The euro rallied against the dollar in response to the trade deal news, and risk assets such as bitcoin rallied as well. Safe-haven assets like gold and the dollar were under pressure. What they're saying: "The biggest piece in the trade deal puzzle still remains, and the Chinese are unlikely to be as willing to fold," Jamie Cox, a managing partner at Harris Financial Group, wrote in a note. China is now the biggest focus for investors, as Axios Markets reported. Public companies rely on China for access to lower priced goods and labor. Chinese consumers also prop up U.S. companies, with 7% of the S&P 500's annual revenue coming from China, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok. Be smart: While tariff rates on China are the biggest country-specific tariff risk for investors, sector-specific levies are also of concern. Lutnick said sector tariffs would become clear over roughly the next two weeks. Any clarity on sector tariffs could move stocks in those baskets.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store