10-year low for new coal mines masks climate risk of planned projects

Time of India

5 days ago

BATHINDA: Newly-opened coal mine capacity in 2024 hit the lowest level in a decade, but the downturn could be short-lived due to a robust slate of planned projects that would jeopardise global targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions, finds a new report by energy think tank Global Energy Monitor (GEM) 'Still digging 2025: Tracking global coal mine proposals'.
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The report estimates that new coal mine proposals could emit as much as 15.7 million tonnes of methane emissions or about 1.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e).
Although the new analysis notes a 46% decline in new coal mine additions for 2024 compared to 2023, new coal mine proposals on the table for close to 2,270 million tonnes per annum of coal production capacity could risk global net zero targets.
China, India, Australia and Russia comprise nearly 90%, 1,942 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of all proposed mine developments globally, with a majority (1,350 Mtpa) of this capacity located in China.
India ranks a distant second globally in proposed coal mining capacity, with 329 Mtpa currently under development. Of this, 163 Mtpa remains in the early planning stage. Approximately 90 Mtpa has been permitted, and 75 Mtpa is already under construction.
Although the rollout has slowed, the decline falls short of what is necessary to align with the Paris Agreement. When fully developed, these mines would emit an estimated 15.7 million tonnes of methane annually. Without an adequate mitigation plan, these proposed coal mine projects would keep methane emissions well above net-zero targets.
Data in the Global Coal Mine Tracker show production capacity at newly operating mines totalled 105 million tonnes (Mt) in 2024, marking the lowest level since 2014 and a 46% decline from 193 Mt in 2023.
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The decline is largely attributed to India and China, where the slowdown was marked by delays in expansion approvals, the inherently lengthy nature of coal mine development phases, and a potential easing of supply pressures following a surge in capacity additions over the previous two years.
However, coal developers are once again ramping up production plans, pursuing over 850 new mines, expansions, and recommission projects across 30 countries.
Thirty-five mine extension projects are also under consideration.
Nearly 90% of this proposed capacity is located within just a few countries. China leads by a wide margin, accounting for 1,350 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of proposed capacity.
India follows with 329 Mtpa. Australia ranks third with 165 Mtpa, while Russia and South Africa also host significant developments, at approximately 98 Mtpa and 73 Mtpa, respectively.
In total, 2,270 Mtpa of coal mine capacity is under development worldwide, posing a significant risk of increased methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas with over 80 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period.
Without abatement measures, methane emissions from proposed coal mines would add to the already substantial emissions from existing operations—currently estimated by GEM at 58.9 Mt annually.
This rise in proposed coal mine capacity also contradicts scenarios from international bodies to cut mine output in order to align with the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
The International Energy Agency and United Nations have both proposed cuts to production at coal mines ranging from 39% to 75% by 2030, compared to 2020 production levels of roughly 7,607 Mt. The current pipeline of coal mines in development would only widen this gap.
Dorothy Mei, Project Manager of the Global Coal Mine Tracker at Global Energy Monitor, said, 'The canary is literally and figuratively in the coal mine. Without drastically scaling back plans for new mine capacity, the world could see a massive rise in potent methane emissions that would make it all but impossible to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement.'