The Blue Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for 14 more years. Do massive contracts for first basemen age well?

Hamilton Spectator

25-04-2025

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s
massive 14-year,
$500 million (U.S.) contract extension
will take the 26-year-old
Blue Jays
slugger into his age 40
season, when few MLB players remain productive.
There's no reason to panic — yet — but Toronto's newly minted $500-million man has been rather ordinary through the first 24 games of the season,
There's no reason to panic — yet — but Toronto's newly minted $500-million man has been rather ordinary through the first 24 games of the season,
Front offices have paid the price for handing out hefty extensions, often locking down the elite players' prime years by overpaying for the back ends of their careers. Here's a look at the richest contracts given to first basemen and how they panned out.
2011: 10 years, $240 million, L.A. Angels
Despite Pujols's status as a near-lock Hall of Famer, his production during his 10-year, $240 million contract at least slightly tarnishes his legacy. After a dozen video game-like seasons in St. Louis, Pujols headed to the Angels in 2011 as a 32-year-old who already had three MVP seasons and won six Silver Slugger Awards.
His first seasons in Los Angeles were by no means bad, but nothing compared to his past mastery.
St. Louis (2001-11):
.328/.420/.617 (1.037 OPS), 445 homers, or one HR every roughly 17 plate appearances.
Los Angeles (2012-16):
.266/.325/.474 (.799 OPS), 146 HR, or one every roughly 21 PAs.
Los Angeles (2017-20):
.242/.291/.406 (.697 OPS), 71 HR, or one every roughly 26 PAs.
He was designated for assignment early on in the contract's last season, with $30 million still remaining.
2014: Eight years, $248 million, Detroit
After a four-year run in which he hit 156 home runs, had a sterling .337 batting average, earned two American League MVPs and became the first player since 1967 to win the Triple Crown, the Tigers inked Cabrera to a massive extension to carry him through his age 40 season.
While the gamble can't completely be considered a failure — Cabrera was worth nearly five wins above replacement in each of the extension's first two seasons and won two Silver Slugger Awards — his value quickly plummeted; by 2020, he was practically a league-average hitter and, save for a burst of productivity that earned him a spot in the All-Star Game in 2022, faded away before retiring at the end of the 2023 season.
2012: Nine years, $214 million, Detroit
Fielder's mammoth contract was ultimately truncated by neck problems that forced him to stop playing in 2016 while with the Rangers. The contract came come off the heels of Fielder's exceptional final season with the Brewers in 2011 in which he played all 162 games and drove in 120 runs, before he left for Detroit. He only managed to appear in 613 games in the five seasons that followed, but slashed a worthy .283/.369/.453. He also did play all 162 games in his first two seasons with the Tigers before the neck injury slowed him down.
2012: 10 years, $225 million, Cincinnati
The Toronto native (and future Blue Jay) was coming off a 6.6 WAR season with the Reds when he signed what was, at the time, the largest contract for a Canadian-born player.
His productivity wavered over the course of the decade-long deal, but Votto still managed to put up some impressive seasons in 2013 and 2017, garnering four all-star selections and hitting 237 home runs in more than 1,400 games during the lifespan of the deal. In his final season in Cincinnati, however, he hit for a .202 average and logged just 242 plate appearances while he dealt with injuries and the Reds declined his $20 million option for 2024.
He then
signed a minor-league contract in Toronto
, but
never appeared
in a big-league game for his hometown team after suffering a sprained ankle in spring training and eventually retired.