FBS Analyzes Cryptocurrency Market Trends in H1 2025 and Outlines Key Drivers for H2
Bitcoin led the market in H1, showing solid resilience and setting new highs despite global uncertainty. Supported by a more favorable macroeconomic environment with stabilizing inflation, a pause in US rate hikes, and a weaker dollar, BTC once again confirmed its position as the leading force in the crypto market.
Earlier in 2025, Bitcoin briefly fell to $76 300 before making a strong comeback in Q2 and reaching a new all-time high. This recovery reinforced BTC's dominance, especially among institutional investors, and left many altcoins struggling to catch up.
'Bitcoin has once again proven to be the core asset in the crypto market,' say FBS analysts. 'But the real question is whether we're nearing the end of this bull cycle — or if the market still has room to run.'
Altcoins fall behind
While Bitcoin surged, most altcoins, including ETH, SOL, and XRP, remained under pressure. The long-awaited 'altseason' didn't take off in the first half of the year, as most liquidity remained concentrated in Bitcoin. Weak speculative interest and a lack of strong fundamentals limited altcoin recovery, leaving many assets below their year-to-date performance.
Some, like XRP, showed relative stability due to strong communities and partnerships. But overall, altcoins underperformed, raising doubts about whether they'll see a meaningful upside before the current cycle peaks.
Macro picture: the key to what comes next
In the second half of 2025, market attention shifts to key macroeconomic signals. According to FBS, three forces will likely shape crypto's direction:
The US Federal Reserve: If the Fed starts cutting rates, risk assets could gain new momentum. But if the pause continues or policy shifts back toward tightening, pressure on crypto may return.
The US Dollar Index (DXY): Bitcoin has historically moved in the opposite direction to the dollar. A stronger DXY could weigh on crypto sentiment.
Stock market performance: Correlations between major indices and crypto remain strong. Weakness in tech stocks could spill over into digital assets.
Tracking the Post-Halving Market Trajectory
Looking at past market cycles, FBS analysts highlight that bull markets tend to peak 200–500 days after a Bitcoin halving. The last halving occurred in April 2024, putting a potential cycle top around Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. Technical indicators like the Money Flow Index (MFI) also suggest FBS may still be in the active phase of the bull run.
That said, the market now enters a decisive phase. Continued growth may drive renewed capital into altcoins, sparking delayed upside. On the other hand, signs of exhaustion or macro headwinds could mark the start of a longer correction.
'The next few months will define this cycle,' the report concludes. 'Whether it's the beginning of the end or just another phase of growth — traders need to stay alert.'
Users can read the latest FBS analysis here.
To learn more about FBS and its services, users can visit FBS.com.
Disclaimer: This material does not constitute a call to trade, trading advice, or recommendation, and is intended for informational purposes only.
About FBS
FBS is a global brand that unites several independent brokerage companies under the licenses of FSC (Belize), CySEC (Cyprus), and ASIC (Australia). With 16 years of experience and over 100 international awards, FBS is steadily developing as one of the market's most trusted brokers. Today, FBS serves over 27 000 000 traders and more than 700 000 partners around the globe.
Contact
FBS
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
MARA Holdings (MARA) Slashes 11.6% Amid New $1-Billion Debt Offer
We recently published . MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA) is one of the worst performers on Wednesday. MARA Holdings fell by 11.62 percent on Wednesday to close at $17.57 apiece as investor sentiment was dampened by plans to raise $1 billion through debt to finance the acquisition of more Bitcoins. In a statement, MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA) said that it intends to offer $850 million worth of convertible senior notes due 2032, with an overallotment option of up to $150 million. The notes will be unsecured, senior obligations and are not expected to bear regular interest other than special interests in limited circumstances. The notes will mature on August 1, 2032, unless earlier repurchased, redeemed, or converted in accordance with the terms. Subject to certain conditions, on or after January 15, 2030, MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA) said it may redeem for cash all or any portion of the notes. MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA) said it intends to use $50 million of the net proceeds to repurchase a portion of its existing 1 percent convertible senior notes due 2026, while the balance will be used to acquire additional bitcoin and for general corporate purposes. While we acknowledge the potential of MARA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the . Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Insider
4 hours ago
- Business Insider
Pulte Pressures Powell to Slash Rates ‘As Early as next Week'
Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte toured the Fed's under-construction headquarters yesterday with President Trump. While Trump eased up on his calls for Powell to resign, Pulte has upped the ante. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. 'I remain optimistic Jerome Powell will do the right thing, and as early as next week,' said Pulte in an X post on Friday, likely a reference to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 29-30. Pulte previously called for the Fed to lower rates and a congressional investigation of Powell over the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation of its Washington, D.C. headquarters. Will Powell Step Down? Earlier this month, Pulte noted that he was ' encouraged ' by reports that Powell would step down despite no confirmed reports on the subject. This morning, CNN reported that the Fed Chair had confided in close contacts that he would serve the remainder of his term in order to retain Fed independence from political bias. Powell's term ends in May 2026. 'I've asked him, and he says no, that would reduce the independence of the Federal Reserve,' said South Dakota GOP Senator Mike Rounds. Additionally, the Fed will likely keep rates steady next week. CME's FedWatch tool assigns 97.4% odds of the rate staying between 4.25% and 4.50%. Economic Indicators Dashboard.
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
XRP, DOGE, SOL Lead Crypto Selloff, But Altcoin Season Still in Play if This Happens
While bitcoin (BTC) slid only modestly, other major cryptocurrencies tumbled over the past few days, sparking doubt of the durability of the so-called altcoin season. XRP (XRP), dogecoin (DOGE) and Solana's SOL (SOL) declined the most among the top 10 cryptos on Friday, slipping around 5% each over the past 24 hours, CoinDesk data shows. From the Wednesday highs, XRP and DOGE plunged around 18%, while SOL was down 12% over the same stretch. The CoinDesk 80 Index, consisting of mid-cap tokens outside of the CoinDesk 20, lost 10% from the weekly peak. Meanwhile, BTC was changing hands around $116,000, a bit more than 3% lower from its mid-week peak of $120,000. Ethereum's ether (ETH) was 4% below its weekly high, supported by steady accumulation by crypto treasury strategy firms. When altcoin season? The sharp sell-off of the past few days came after weeks heavy capital rotation into smaller tokens, fueling talks of a full-blown altcoin season. That period, sometimes dubbed alt season, occurs when riskier, smaller tokens outperform bitcoin, the leading crypto, for a sustained period. CoinGlass' Alcoin Season Index, which measures the altcoin market's outperformance versus BTC on a scale of 0 to 100, cooled off to 41 on Friday from Monday's 59, the strongest reading since the late January speculative frenzy around President Trump's inauguration. Still, the total altcoin market (except stablecoins) saw a rapid appreciation, nearly doubling in value since April, David Duong, head of research at Coinbase, said in a Friday report. For this week's pullback, traders taking on excessive leverage on altcoin bets were to blame, the report pointed out. The Altcoin Open-Interest Dominance metric, which compares the amount of dollars tied up in altcoin derivatives contracts to bitcoin's, soared to 1.6, a level that has preceded previous market shake-outs, the report noted. A decrease in the ratio would suggest a healthy leverage reset for the altcoin market, otherwise more shakeouts are expected, Duong wrote. For an extended altcoin season, investors should keep an eye on the Bitcoin Dominance, which measures BTC's share of the total crypto market capitalization. The metric has broken below the 200-day moving average for the first time since a brief period in January 2025, the report noted. "A sustained move under the 200-DMA could validate the 'alt season' narrative and have historically preceded multi-week stretches of altcoin outperformance (like in 2021)," Duong wrote. However, traders might be better off waiting for more consecutive sessions closing below the level before piling into altcoin bets for a more "prudent positioning," he added.
