India mulls Indus Waters Treaty dispute exit, seeks legal view
India is exploring legal options to exit the Indus Waters Treaty dispute resolution process concerning the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects. Citing a "fundamental change of circumstances," India has approached its Attorney General and may notify the Neutral Expert, potentially halting the ongoing mechanism.
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( Originally published on Apr 25, 2025 )
India, having announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), is now seeking legal counsel on exiting the ongoing World Bank-mediated dispute resolution process over the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects in Jammu & Kashmir, ET has learnt.According to sources, the Ministry of Jal Shakti has approached the Attorney General of India to explore legal mechanisms and options that would allow India to exit the resolution framework under the 1960 treaty, brokered by the World Bank.A key question under consideration is whether India needs to formally notify the World Bank of its decision to suspend the IWT, or if communicating the decision solely to the 'Neutral Expert'-who is currently examining the India-Pakistan dispute-would suffice.Since this is the only active IWT dispute resolution process, and the primary trigger behind India's call to revise the treaty, New Delhi may opt to notify just the Neutral Expert. Such a move would effectively halt the ongoing Kishanganga-Ratle mechanism and place the IWT in a state of suspension.The Neutral Expert in question is Michel Lino, President of the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD). He was appointed by the World Bank in 2022 under Article IX and Annexure F of the IWT, following objections raised by Pakistan over India's 330 MW Kishanganga project on the Jhelum in Gurez valley and the 850 MW Ratle project on the Chenab.Lino conducted multiple meetings and site visits over two years, and in January 2025, declared he was "competent" to adjudicate the dispute-an outcome welcomed by India. However, with India now aiming to exit the process, the Neutral Expert mechanism may also be paused, despite India already responding to Pakistan's queries, with no new objections raised by Islamabad since.India has started invoking international legal doctrines to justify its position. In a letter sent on April 24 to Pakistan, India cited a "fundamental change of circumstances" as the basis for suspending the IWT.This argument leans on the principle of rebus sic stantibus under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which allows a country to withdraw from a treaty due to unforeseen, fundamental changes.Water Resources Secretary Debashree Mukherjee's communication to her Pakistani counterpart, Syed Ali Murtaza, emphasized that India has repeatedly requested modifications to the IWT in light of significant demographic shifts, clean energy needs, and other altered assumptions underlying water sharing under the treaty.Since 2022, India has formally sought renegotiation of the IWT, triggered by the World Bank's handling of the Kishanganga-Ratle dispute. Article IX of the IWT lays out a multi-tiered resolution system-starting with the Permanent Indus Waters Commission, escalating to a Neutral Expert, and finally, a Court of Arbitration.Appointment of Sean D murphy Chairman of a five member Court of Arbitration (CoA) on Pakistan's demand- alongside the appointment of a 'Neutral Expert' in 2022 over Ratle/Kishenganga dispute and initiation of concurrent proceedings was a key trigger for India to seek renegotiation of the IWT and also an indirect questioning of the World Bank's stance.India sent its first formal notice on 25 January 2023- two days before the Court of Arbitration (CoA) met at The Hague and boycotted the January 27 meeting on the two power projects. It sent a second notice on 30th August 2024 seeking modification of the IWT.In January 2025, Neutral expert Lino, finally issued a press statement announcing he was 'competent' to resolve the issues raised--- a major reaffirmation of India's stance on going back to the graded mechanism.New Delhi then noted that it was India's 'consistent and principled position that the Neutral Expert alone has the competence under the Treaty to decide these differences' which does not provide for 'parallel proceedings' on the same issues.
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