5 things to know as California moves forward with redistricting

The Hill

a day ago

California Democrats are moving forward with plans to potentially redraw the state's congressional maps as a response to GOP-led redistricting efforts in Texas.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has said the Golden State is planning to put redistricting before voters during a special election this November, with the aim of adding several Democratic House seats to the blue stronghold.
California's move is a direct response to redistricting efforts in Republican-led Texas, where Democratic state legislators have fled the state in a last-ditch bid to block a redraw backed by President Trump.
Here's what to know as California moves forward:
Why is Newsom calling for a special election?
Newsom announced Friday that his state will move forward with plans to get a measure on the ballot that would, if approved by voters during a special election, let Democrats pass a new House map.
California state lawmakers are out for summer recess, with plans to return on Aug. 18. They're expected to take up the matter as soon as they return, as they're up against a deadline to make a November special election official.
'We have 'til Aug. 22nd. With the leadership behind me, they will get this on the ballot,' the governor said.
Newsom needs to call a special election to move forward because California, unlike Texas, has a bipartisan commission that is responsible for redistricting every decade. In order to circumvent the commission and redraw mid-cycle, he must put the redistricting question directly in front of voters to seek their approval before a new map can be put in place.
The push to draw new congressional lines in the Golden State comes as Democrats across the country are looking to blunt potential gains in Texas ahead of the midterms. The Lone Star State is expected to pick up as many as five additional seats with their new lines, making it potentially easier for the GOP to hold onto its slim House majority next year despite electoral headwinds.
Newsom has repeatedly said that he will only move forward with redistricting if Texas does so, but since the Lone Star State has signaled it has no intention of backing down, it seems likely the California governor will go forward with the special election.
What will voters be asked to consider?
The exact details of the ballot question remain unclear, raising questions about how the plan will move forward, even if voters approve it.
Newsom's office has underscored the potential ballot measure would reaffirm California's commitment to independent redistricting, while also allowing voters to 'temporarily adjust' the congressional map for the next several cycles. But how the question will actually be formulated remains up in the air.
The measure is also expected to include 'trigger' language, explaining how and who decides to move forward with redistricting in the Golden State if it happens in Texas or elsewhere.
There's also the possibility, however unlikely, that the Texas GOP will not move forward with redistricting, thereby negating Newsom's push to redraw California's lines. However, most observers see this as an unlikely outcome.
Another possibility is that California voters don't approve redistricting. The chances of that happening in the deep-blue state also appear remote, though some experts say the popularity of the independent commission, which Californians approved in 2008 and 2010, may stoke hesitance about the proposed changes.
'I think the voters understand what's at stake,' Newsom said when asked about this last potential outcome.
When could new maps go into effect?
California's goal would be to counteract the planned GOP gains in Texas during next year's midterms, and the ballot measure would aim to push the changes through before the midterm election in November 2026.
If the maps go through, the mid-census redistricting will last 'for the '26, '28 and '30 ballots, just for congressional ballots alone,' Newsom said on Friday.
Proponents of the plan have stressed that the proposal would maintain the framework of California's independent redistricting commission, though the bipartisan body's maps would be effectively paused in the meantime.
California would then revert to the existing system after the next census at the end of the decade.
The proposal appears to be a 'a one-time request to voters to subvert the commission, if other states were to engage in such a process,' Sara Sadhwani, a member of the commission that redrew California's lines in 2021 and a politics professor at Pomona College, told The Hill last week.
What could the new maps look like?
California's Democratic leaders have said they're planning to release new congressional map proposals sometime this week.
The exact contours of the new maps are unclear, but Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), the chair of the California Democratic Congressional delegation, told local outlet KCRA 3 over the weekend that they're expected to target five House Republicans.
That would be an exact counter to the five GOP seats that would be created by the Texas plan.
Such a change would boost Democrats' advantage in the congressional delegation to a whopping 48 of 52 House seats, by cutting into the districts held by the state's current nine Republican lawmakers.
Among the potential targets are Republican Reps. Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, David Valadao, Doug LaMalfa and Kevin Kiley.
What opposition does the push face?
Newsom's move has drawn criticism from some notable figures — perhaps no one more so than former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), who has threatened to campaign against the plan, according to Politico.
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'He calls gerrymandering evil, and he means that. He thinks it's truly evil for politicians to take power from people,' spokesperson Daniel Ketchell told the news outlet. 'He's opposed to what Texas is doing, and he's opposed to the idea that California would race to the bottom to do the same thing.'
Kiley, another California Republican who could be vulnerable under the new maps, has also emerged as a vocal critic of the plan. The lawmaker has proposed federal legislation that would prohibit mid-decade redistricting nationwide.
Furthermore, the unprecedented plan is entering 'legal murkiness,' said Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University who founded the database All About Redistricting — while also being pressed for time, given the November goal and scheduling rules for special elections.