Tropical trouble could be brewing around Florida, hurricane forecasters say
For those who watch every potential storm closely, this initial map looks a lot like the first one that popped up for Tropical Storm Chantal. The possible development area swoops from the Atlantic to the Gulf across much of Florida, but this time the system is moving toward the Gulf, and the advisory includes the southern shores of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
A broad area of low pressure could develop sometime within the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast, the hurricane center said on the afternoon of July 12. Environmental conditions could become "marginally conducive" for the gradual development of a system within five to seven days as it moves westward across Florida. The chances of development are low, only 20%.
If for some reason, a tropical storm does develop, the next name on the list this season is Dexter.
"Should development take place on the Atlantic side of Florida, it may once again drift northward toward the U.S. coast," Accuweather said on July 11. The more plausible option is development on the Gulf side, which could be steered westward along the northern Gulf Coast, the weather forecast company stated.
Regardless of development, the area of disturbed weather is expected to be a rainmaker in the region. Heavy rain is possible over parts of Florida and the Southeast coast through mid-to-late week, the center stated in the July 12 advisory.
Tropical weather watchers say windshear over the Caribbean and dry air and Saharan dust over the Atlantic have helped keep this hurricane season from getting too busy so far.
Still Chantal's development put the 2025 hurricane season about a month ahead of schedule. Typically the third Atlantic named storm doesn't form until August 3, according to Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, who leads its seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season each year.
The season was forecast to see above normal activity, however the latest forecast from Klotzbach and his team slightly reduced the number of possible storms.
Chantal formed off the Southeast U.S. coast on July 4, then moved over the Carolinas. Heavy rains flooded parts of North Carolina, claiming six lives.
Chantal victims: At least six deaths were reported in flooding in North Carolina
The Haw River crested at 32.5 feet, only a third of a foot away from its all-time high, set after Hurricane Fran in 1996, according to the weather service office in Raleigh. Chantal also spawned four EF-1 tornadoes in North Carolina, one each in Mebane, Snow Camp, southern Pittsboro and at the Raleigh Executive Jetport.
The highest rainfall totals were reported in Chatham County, where 11.92 inches were reported in Moncure and Pittsboro, where the weather service collected five other rainfall reports of between 10 and 11.5 inches.
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NHC hurricane forecasters eyeing a potential system near Florida
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