Tokyo rebuke puts Ishiba at risk in national election

The Mainichi

7 hours ago

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- A sharp warning from voters for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's party in Sunday's Tokyo assembly election has signaled that his tenure could be at risk, with his ruling bloc in danger of losing its majority in the upcoming national vote.
The House of Councillors election, expected to take place on July 20, is shaping up as a de facto referendum on Ishiba's leadership, as the ruling coalition led by his Liberal Democratic Party has already become a minority in the House of Representatives.
Some observers, meanwhile, said the conflict in the Middle East -- exacerbated by U.S. air strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities -- may work in favor of Ishiba, who has held direct talks with President Donald Trump, in the upper house election.
Voters tend to be reluctant to entrust government to the opposition, which has little governing experience in diplomacy and defense, especially as the geopolitical situation grows more severe -- notably those involving Japan's security ally, the United States, they said.
A loss of majority in both chambers of parliament would likely put pressure on Ishiba to resign, triggering a power struggle within the LDP, with an eye on the politically advantageous timing of a lower house dissolution for a snap election.
If he remains in power, attention is set to turn to whether an opposition party might join the government. Since he took office in October 2024, some relatively large opposition parties have supported bills and budgets after negotiating with the ruling camp.
After media reports that the LDP performed poorly in Sunday's election, Shinji Inoue, head of the party's Tokyo chapter, told reporters with a somber expression that the outcome "will not have a direct impact" on the upper house election.
As Ishiba decided not to dissolve the lower house to hold elections of both chambers on the same day, most parties have effectively begun campaigning mainly through social media following the end of this year's 150-day ordinary Diet session on Sunday.
The LDP is trying to attract voters by highlighting its efforts to tackle soaring rice prices and navigate tough tariff talks with the United States, while opposition parties are pitching inflation relief measures, such as a high-stakes consumption tax cut.
To maintain control of the 248-seat upper house, the LDP and its junior partner, the Komeito party, must retain a combined 125 seats. Elections for half the chamber are held every three years. In the 2022 election, the ruling bloc scored a decisive victory.
As for the number of seats he aims to secure in the upper house election, Ishiba said winning a majority for the ruling coalition is the "bare minimum," as his Cabinet's approval ratings have recently bottomed out, despite still hovering around 30 percent.
In 2022, the ruling camp picked up more than 70 seats in the upper house election, which came just days after LDP lawmaker and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated by a gunman -- an event that shocked the nation and galvanized party unity.
Since media-savvy Shinjiro Koizumi became farm minister in May, Ishiba has pursued a more consumer-focused approach in his push to reform Japan's agricultural policy, amid increasing public frustration over rice prices which have nearly doubled from a year earlier.
Emergencies in the Middle East may also underscore the leadership of Ishiba, who has served as defense minister, with Mayu Kondo, a 46-year-old female office worker in Tokyo, saying, "When the world is unstable, the seasoned ruling coalition is more reliable."
So far, however, the results of upper house elections have not immediately caused a change in government as the prime minister is elected by the lower house, but they have triggered internal rifts within the LDP, including forcing its president to step down.
After past upper house election defeats, then prime ministers -- Sosuke Uno, Ryutaro Hashimoto and Abe -- were eventually compelled to resign, as the ruling bloc's fading authority emboldened the opposition and stirred calls for leadership change.
"As a transfer of power remains unlikely without a united opposition, the focus will be on whether the LDP might replace its leader to break the stalemate," said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management Co.
On the policy front, the LDP's upper house election campaign pledge to provide 20,000 yen ($137) in cash handouts designed to curb the negative impact of price hikes has failed to gain strong support, boding ill for Ishiba, long regarded as a fiscal hawk.
"The policy is flawed in that cash handouts are distributed even to those who can afford to live comfortably," said Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at the Nomura Research Institute, adding, "It has therefore become what many view as a blatant giveaway."
July 20 falls on the middle day of a three-day holiday weekend in Japan.
(By Tomoyuki Tachikawa)