Tokyo election results signal uncertainty for LDP ahead of Upper House race

Japan Times

4 hours ago

The Liberal Democratic Party suffered a major setback in Sunday's Tokyo assembly election, winning just 21 seats — a record low and down from the 30 it previously held . The most seats went to Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First), backed by Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike. The poor performance raised concerns within Japan's biggest party as it heads into the Upper House election, expected to be held on July 20.
'It was a very tough election,' said Shinji Inoue, head of the LDP's Tokyo chapter, speaking to reporters early Monday morning after the results came in.
Although the results from Sunday's polls in the capital do not necessarily directly predict performance in the upcoming Upper House election, they signify an underlying trend in public opinion that affects both contests, says Hanako Ohmura, a professor at Kyoto University who specializes in public opinion and voting behavior.
'I think the trend we are seeing emerge from the Tokyo Assembly election results is that the results are very severe against the LDP,' she said. 'In the broadest terms, it is really their unpopularity.'
The results in Tokyo contradict recent public opinion polls, which had suggested the LDP was steadily recovering support since its popularity plunged following the 2023 political funding scandal that put many of the party's key figures in hot water for receiving kickbacks and off-the-book revenue.
In the most recent poll compiled by Jiji this month, the LDP was the most popular party in the upcoming Upper House election with 24.5% support, 4.8 percentage points higher than the previous month.
Ohmura says the 'very interesting' deviation of the Tokyo election results from the polls may be because the LDP's recent proposal for cash handouts is racking up popularity on a national level but is less of a focal point for Tokyoites.
The Democratic Party for the People's Tokyo chapter executives in Tokyo on Sunday night |
JIJI
'Cash handouts are a powerful tool, and within the academia of political science, it has been made clear that cash handouts to this day have a very strong effect on garnering support for the incumbent,' said Ohmura. 'I have seen that support for LDP has increased as a result, but the effects of it were not seen as much in the Tokyo Assembly elections — after all, the Tokyo election is a local election, so the markers that voters look at may be different.'
Because of this, the results from Sunday may not be a direct reflection of how the LDP will perform in the Upper House election.
That said, one thing that the Tokyo assembly election results highlight that may also ring true at a national level is the growth of alternative parties that can take in voters who have deviated from the LDP's support base, particularly on the more conservative side.
This was seen in Tokyo with two smaller parties — the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito — winning seats in the assembly for the first time, having secured nine and three spots, respectively. The more center-left segment of the LDP voter base may have jumped ship to the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.
'Voters are leaving (the LDP) to go both left and right, but I think what is most likely to be found if the results were more closely analyzed is the weight is leaning more towards the right — that's how we have DPP and Sanseito,' Ohmura added, saying a similar phenomenon will most likely be seen in the Upper House election.
Additionally, the result from Sunday itself could play a role in shaping how voters cast their ballots next month.
'The voters who saw the LDP's unpopularity in Tokyo could use that as a factor in making their decisions in the next national election,' said Ohmura.