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Japan Times
8 hours ago
- Politics
- Japan Times
Tokyo election results signal uncertainty for LDP ahead of Upper House race
The Liberal Democratic Party suffered a major setback in Sunday's Tokyo assembly election, winning just 21 seats — a record low and down from the 30 it previously held . The most seats went to Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First), backed by Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike. The poor performance raised concerns within Japan's biggest party as it heads into the Upper House election, expected to be held on July 20. 'It was a very tough election,' said Shinji Inoue, head of the LDP's Tokyo chapter, speaking to reporters early Monday morning after the results came in. Although the results from Sunday's polls in the capital do not necessarily directly predict performance in the upcoming Upper House election, they signify an underlying trend in public opinion that affects both contests, says Hanako Ohmura, a professor at Kyoto University who specializes in public opinion and voting behavior. 'I think the trend we are seeing emerge from the Tokyo Assembly election results is that the results are very severe against the LDP,' she said. 'In the broadest terms, it is really their unpopularity.' The results in Tokyo contradict recent public opinion polls, which had suggested the LDP was steadily recovering support since its popularity plunged following the 2023 political funding scandal that put many of the party's key figures in hot water for receiving kickbacks and off-the-book revenue. In the most recent poll compiled by Jiji this month, the LDP was the most popular party in the upcoming Upper House election with 24.5% support, 4.8 percentage points higher than the previous month. Ohmura says the 'very interesting' deviation of the Tokyo election results from the polls may be because the LDP's recent proposal for cash handouts is racking up popularity on a national level but is less of a focal point for Tokyoites. The Democratic Party for the People's Tokyo chapter executives in Tokyo on Sunday night | JIJI 'Cash handouts are a powerful tool, and within the academia of political science, it has been made clear that cash handouts to this day have a very strong effect on garnering support for the incumbent,' said Ohmura. 'I have seen that support for LDP has increased as a result, but the effects of it were not seen as much in the Tokyo Assembly elections — after all, the Tokyo election is a local election, so the markers that voters look at may be different.' Because of this, the results from Sunday may not be a direct reflection of how the LDP will perform in the Upper House election. That said, one thing that the Tokyo assembly election results highlight that may also ring true at a national level is the growth of alternative parties that can take in voters who have deviated from the LDP's support base, particularly on the more conservative side. This was seen in Tokyo with two smaller parties — the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito — winning seats in the assembly for the first time, having secured nine and three spots, respectively. The more center-left segment of the LDP voter base may have jumped ship to the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. 'Voters are leaving (the LDP) to go both left and right, but I think what is most likely to be found if the results were more closely analyzed is the weight is leaning more towards the right — that's how we have DPP and Sanseito,' Ohmura added, saying a similar phenomenon will most likely be seen in the Upper House election. Additionally, the result from Sunday itself could play a role in shaping how voters cast their ballots next month. 'The voters who saw the LDP's unpopularity in Tokyo could use that as a factor in making their decisions in the next national election,' said Ohmura.
Yomiuri Shimbun
8 hours ago
- Politics
- Yomiuri Shimbun
LDP Suffers Hit in Tokyo Assembly Election, Cedes Top Spot to Tomin First Party
The Liberal Democratic Party suffered a major setback in Sunday's Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, its seats in the assembly falling to an all-time low at 21 seats. The LDP also surrendered its position as the largest party in the assembly to Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites first group). With 127 seats up for grabs in the election, voters punished the LDP for its failure to tackle inflation and its recent financial scandals. After the results were announced, the LDP also endorsed three unaffiliated candidates who won seats. Meanwhile, Tomin First no Kai reclaimed its place as the largest party in the Tokyo assembly, with its candidates winning 31 seats. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan also increased its seat count. The Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito, which previously had no representation in the assembly, both won multiple seats. The Tokyo assembly election looks certain to affect the House of Councillors election that will soon follow. The race saw 295 candidates, the highest number since the seat count in the Tokyo assembly was set at 127, compete in 42 electoral districts. The focus of the race was whether the LDP would be able to keep its position as the largest party, and whether a group of political parties supporting Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike — namely the LDP, Tomin First no Kai and Komeito — would maintain its majority. The LDP did not endorse six members who had served as secretary general of the party caucus in the assembly as they were found to have improperly reported revenue from political fundraising parties. That left the party only endorsing 42 candidates, far fewer than in the previous Tokyo assembly election. Due in part to deep-seated discontent with the party, over its politics-and-money scandals and its handling of surging prices, all LDP candidates in electoral districts where there was only one seat up for grabs lost their race. After the votes were counted, the party endorsed an unaffiliated candidate who won in a district in Tokyo's southern islands. 'We got poor ratings from the people of Tokyo,' said Shinji Inoue, chairman of the Federation of Tokyo Metropolitan Liberal Democratic Party Branches, on Sunday night. Tomin First no Kai fielded 37 candidates and played up its close ties with Tokyo's governor, who serves as a special advisor to the regional party. Thanks to Koike's popularity, the party attracted support from a wide range of voters. It claimed three electoral districts where there was only one seat to win, and also took seats in the districts including Nakano Ward and Kodaira. Komeito sought to have all its candidates win seats for the ninth consecutive Tokyo assembly election and so narrowed its roster down to 22 candidates, one less than the seats it held before the election was announced. But three of its candidates — two in Ota Ward and one in Shinjuku Ward — failed to secure a spot in the assembly. However, as Tomin First no Kai was able to grab more seats, the total number held by the parties supporting the governor will assure a majority in the assembly. The Japanese Communist Party and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan pushed their criticisms of the LDP's scandals and Koike's management of the Tokyo government. While the CDPJ won 17 seats, the JCP fell to 14, down five from before the election campaign. The DPFP won nine seats in such districts as Katsushika Ward. Sanseito won three. On Monday, senior members of the LDP and Komeito commented on their poor showings in the election. LDP Policy Research Council Chairperson Itsunori Onodera said in the morning that the party had not been able to firm up the support it needed. Looking ahead to the upper house election, he said, 'We will tout our economic and other key policies without wavering on our principles.' At a pre-dawn press conference, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito said, 'We didn't quite do enough to tout our policies.' Also on Monday, the Tokyo Metropolitan Election Administration Commission announced that 47.59% of voters turned out for the election. That was up by 5.2 percentage points from the last Tokyo assembly election in 2021, when voter turnout hit its second-lowest point on record.
