Gentle nudge towards peace

The Star

24-05-2025

Trust and consistency key to Asean resolution, says experts
PETALING JAYA: Myanmar's long-running crisis defies easy answers, but analysts say the road to resolution hinges on two key elements: trust and consistency.
As Malaysia chairs Asean this year, experts say the path forward must be anchored in trust-­building and consistent engagement to ensure regional stability.
Drawing parallels with Timor Leste's post-conflict transition, international relations analyst Dr Zokhri Idris pointed out that open lines of communication are critical to de-escalating tensions.
'What our Prime Minister is trying to do now is open a channel with both the military junta and the National Unity Govern­ment (NUG), not necessarily because trust already exists, but because consistency can begin to rebuild it.
'The idea is to neutralise hostile sentiment and reintroduce dialogue,' he said when contacted.
This aligns with Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's approach. In April, he met junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in Bangkok following a major earthquake in Myanmar.
The discussion centred on halting military hostilities to allow humanitarian aid access, a step positioned as a humanitarian imperative rather than political endorsement.
'Malaysia's engagement does not legitimise any one party,' said senior lecturer at UiTM and director of the Asia West East Centre Dr Abdolreza Alami.
'Rather, the aim is to create momentum for a broader peace process by focusing on the humanitarian aspect and fostering dialogue.'
Alami argues that institutionalising the Asean Chair's Special Envoy to Myanmar as a permanent role is crucial.
He said the current practice of rotating the envoy annually has weakened the association's credibility.
A permanent envoy, he said, would ensure sustained engagement with all stakeholders – including the junta's State Administration Council (SAC), the NUG and various ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) – while adapting to Myanmar's evolving political terrain.
'The SAC has lost significant ground over the past year, with two major military commands falling in 2024. Resistance groups now control over 40% of Myanmar's territory.
'A permanent envoy allows Asean to remain relevant, coordinate internal member state efforts and align external support, especially from China, India and Japan, with the Five-Point Consensus,' he added.
He said such an envoy would reduce the grouping's dependency on external powers and help mitigate internal divisions over Myanmar's participation in Asean forums.
The diplomatic outreach, Alami said is being supported by Malaysia's broader humanitarian strategy.
Beyond political dialogue, he said Malaysia has coordinated aid delivery and refugee support, engaging carefully with the NUG and EAOs to navigate around junta restrictions.
He said the government has also encouraged regional capacity-­building, particularly in governance, judiciary, health and education, as preparation for a post-conflict transition, should federal governance take root in liberated regions.
But challenges remain. Despite Malaysia's efforts, he said the junta continues to defy international appeals, with 171 airstrikes launched since Anwar's Bangkok meeting.
Still, analysts stressed that pragmatism and consistency are key. Fellow at the National Council of Professors Dr Azmi Hassan said the region's historical reluctance to confront the junta has undermined Asean's credibility.
'Previously, Asean avoided risks and kept a passive posture. But things are changing. We are now opening channels, and the Prime Minister's moves signal that both pressure and consistency must go hand in hand,' Azmi said.
Echoing this, director of the Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania Professor Dr James Chin said after years of failed attempts, Malaysia's move is a renewed push for dialogue – even if the final breakthrough may lie elsewhere.
'The general understanding in the international arena is that the key to resolving the issue is China ... the junta might be willing to do peace talks then.
'There have been too many civilian deaths and this must stop,' he said.