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Jockey Luis Saez injured after falling from his horse in Blue Grass undercard race at Keeneland

Jockey Luis Saez injured after falling from his horse in Blue Grass undercard race at Keeneland

Yahoo08-04-2025
Jockey Luis Saez injured after falling from his horse in Blue Grass undercard race at Keeneland
LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) — Veteran jockey Luis Saez, who earned his second Belmont Stakes victory in June aboard Dornoch, is in stable condition at a hospital after falling from his mount at Keeneland on Tuesday.
The multiple graded stakes winner was injured after falling from Fateful Lightning in the second race on Keeneland's turf course. The horse tripped over the rider but was uninjured, a statement from the track said. Saez lay on the track for several minutes before being placed on a board and into an ambulance.
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The statement added that Saez was being evaluated by UK HealthCare Medical Services and removed from remaining mounts on Tuesday including Brad Cox-trained colt Admiral Dennis in the Grade 1, $1.25 million Blue Grass feature, which awards qualifying points toward next month's 151st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
Jockey Manny Franco was scheduled to replace Saez aboard Admiral Dennis in the Blue Grass.
Saez won the Belmont in 2021 aboard Essential Quality before riding Dornoch to a half-length victory over Mindframe last year in the 1 1/2-mile third jewel of the Triple Crown. He was a three-time Blue Grass winner, mostly recently aboard Tapit Trice in 2021.
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AP horse racing: https://apnews.com/hub/horse-racing
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8 factors that predict potential underdog College Football Playoff contenders
8 factors that predict potential underdog College Football Playoff contenders

New York Times

time3 hours ago

  • New York Times

8 factors that predict potential underdog College Football Playoff contenders

The AP's preseason poll dropped on Monday afternoon, and tucked inside were a list of the most obvious contenders to make the 2025-26 College Football Playoff — names like Texas, Penn State, Clemson, Georgia and last year's title-game combatants, Ohio State and Notre Dame. The Athletic's own Matt Baker recently disproved the notion that ranked preseason teams have an edge because they're ranked; rather, these squads are ranked highly because they're also the most likely playoff frontrunners, with more talent than anybody else in a sport where that tends to matter a lot (and in an era when it matters more than ever). Advertisement Either way, those 25 teams aren't necessarily going to sneak up on anyone. But we're also interested in teams from outside the preseason ranking who might still crash the playoff party. So I combed back through data since 2000 (the earliest season of turnover-margin data in Sports-Reference/CFB's database) for indicators that might predict an unranked AP preseason team's ability to still finish within the top 12 of the final pre-bowl poll — a general proxy for being in the playoff mix going into the committee's final weekend of decision-making. Many of these elements relate to the concept of regression toward the mean: the idea that teams tend to revert in the direction of longer-term norms over time, especially when we account for more volatile or luck-driven stats. It's useful to be able to create a hierarchy of those types of factors to look at — or regress away — when trying to identify playoff-worthy dark horses. With that in mind, let's run down the key questions to ask around any potential surprise contender — and the potential beneficiaries of those variables in 2025 — in order of predictive importance. This factor is not necessarily a surprising consideration — good teams tend to stay good going forward, especially in college football — but it's the most important metric for determining whether a team from outside the preseason top 25 will break through in spite of the pollsters' concerns. Of the 66 teams in our dataset that made the leap from outside the preseason poll, more than half (35) were coming off a season with a +5.0 Simple Rating System (SRS) score, which puts a team as roughly a top-50 team in the previous year's pecking order, and more had a previous rating of +10.0 or better (12) than were negative the previous season (nine). It's not impossible for a surprise team to really surprise, rising from a poor previous rating to crack the top 12, but it's rare. More often, those teams come from the top ranks of the prior year, which means BYU and Louisville get the most credit in this category, followed by USC, Iowa, Minnesota and Virginia Tech. Many of these teams suffered key personnel losses to some degree or another, so caution is advised, particularly before we get to the other indicators. Situations like Florida State last year — whose SRS declined by a shocking 21.7 points year-over-year — can happen. But as a baseline, the clear majority of teams stick within a touchdown of their previous SRS, for better or worse. Advertisement The second-most important predictor also involves SRS — but it concerns whether a school was abnormally good (or bad) by its own standards a year ago. In the spirit of regression to the mean, if a team has established a particular long-term level of play, then deviates from that level in one season, it is likely to return or at least move back to the long-term norm the following year. That means we're looking for squads whose 2024 ratings were far worse than usual. Newer FBS teams like James Madison (and Delaware, Missouri State, etc.) were excluded from consideration because they lacked a five-year sample of previous seasons. Tulsa and Kent State top the list, but are usually just mediocre and were among the worst teams in FBS last season. They are good candidates to improve, but not to make the CFP. More realistically, Air Force, Oklahoma State and Florida State all have the potential to improve quite a bit through a combination of regression, the portal and recruiting (in the case of OSU and FSU), and the other built-in ways that prevent competitive programs from staying down for too long. Much to the chagrin of mid-major fans across the nation, the college football power structure favors elite teams in elite conferences whenever it can. So it makes sense that a potential dark-horse candidate from a more prestigious conference is going to get the benefit of the doubt in the rankings before a team trying to make their bid from a smaller conference. In terms of our 2025 candidates in the categories we've looked at so far, that big-conference bias is good news for Iowa — who has the best combination of 2024 SRS and the potential to regress toward an even higher rating based on its previous norms — plus Louisville, USC, BYU, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin and the rest of the power-conference teams we've discussed. Meanwhile, the American and, to a lesser extent, Sun Belt are the epicenter of teams that have solid indicators, but their conference might get held against them, barring an automatic bid. Advertisement Though it sometimes gets mentioned in betting circles, one of my favorite semi-hidden stats remains 'yards per point' (YPP). At its core, YPP measures how efficiently a team converts yardage into points on offense — and how inefficiently it forces opponents to do the same on defense. Teams with a lower YPP than their opponents are essentially turning field position into points at a better rate, which translates into a higher scoring margin and, usually, more wins. Like turnover margin (more on that stat later), it can be volatile from year to year, bouncing around with red-zone execution, third-down conversion rates, special teams performance and 'bend-but-don't-break' defense. But when a team consistently posts a strong YPP differential, like the New England Patriots did throughout their dynasty, it's often a sign of something more sustainable. In our historical sample, teams that had lower YPP differentials between offense and defense in the previous season — negative numbers are better because they mean you traded fewer yards for the same points than your opponent did — tended to be more likely to make the leap from unranked to the top 12 after controlling for everything else. Our group of historical surprise teams had an average prior YPP differential of -1.3 and 62 percent of them were negative in the previous season. That's a bit counter to the usual wisdom that YPP is heavily luck-based and likely to regress against teams who relied on it. In this case, it may be picking up on a team's strengths that don't always show up in other conventional stats, like situational execution, special teams efficiency and a general ability to squeeze more points out of opportunities. If that holds true, Army and Iowa stand out among the unranked masses for their efficiency on offense and ability to bend, not break, on defense. In a less contrarian statistical finding, we won't be surprised to learn that teams that won fewer games than we'd expect based on their points scored and allowed — via the Pythagorean Formula — tend to be more likely to bounce back the following season. More importantly for this exercise, they are also prone to being overlooked by the preseason pollsters, who may tend to judge a team off of its standard win-loss record without digging into extenuating stats like its point differential. That could give a boost to teams like UCF and especially Auburn, plus Virginia Tech slightly lower down the list, each of which was unlucky with close games compared to blowouts in 2024. Like with Pythagorean luck, another well-known factor that regresses to the mean for football teams over time tends to be turnovers. Yes, there are some notable exceptions — we go back to Bill Belichick's Patriots for an example from the NFL — but generally speaking, a team with an outlier turnover margin in either direction has a tendency to move toward the middle the following season. That means for breakthrough candidates, we're looking for teams coming off poor turnover differentials in 2024. Most notable here is Florida State, whose uncharacteristically awful 2024 was driven at least some by that minus-16 turnover margin. Plus, lurking just at the periphery of this list are Auburn, UCF, Oklahoma State, Arkansas and West Virginia — all were at minus-eight or worse and have a number of additional factors pointing to better days in 2025. Advertisement One of the interesting philosophical arguments around preseason polls is what exactly they're attempting to rank. Most view them as an accounting of top-to-bottom roster talent on paper going into the season, which incidentally is why their basketball cousin is a good predictor of March Madness results even after controlling for season-long performance. However, they're not necessarily trying to peg where a team will end up by season's end. In theory, the two rankings ought to be correlated, but differences come about because of scheduling, which is an area we can project in our search for surprise playoff contenders. In our historical dataset, teams that went from a harder schedule (in terms of opponent SRS ratings) during one season to an easier projected schedule (based on a weighted multi-year average of SRS for its opponents) in the following preseason tended to be more likely to catch the initial polls by surprise. Factoring in schedules, teams like Virginia Tech, USC, FSU, Kansas and Washington (among others) are being underrated in their playoff potential. This might be the most fascinating result in our entire experiment. In the historical data, there was a real effect where unranked teams whose coaches were in either their third or fourth season at a particular stop (consecutively, not overall) were more likely to finish among the top 12 in the pre-bowl rankings even after controlling for everything else. Why might this be? My theory is that those seasons come in the sweet spot of a coach's tenure. By that point, they've had enough time to install their systems, bring in players who fit their style and establish the culture they want — but at the same time, their message is still fresh, morale is still high and opponents may not have fully adapted to their tendencies yet. Among our common dark-horse candidates from the rest of the factors above, teams with coaches in the third or fourth year with their current program include USC's Lincoln Riley, Jeff Brohm with Louisville, Hugh Freeze with Auburn, Brent Pry with Virginia Tech and Matt Rhule with Nebraska. This is the least important factor. It's not impossible for a newer — or older, in the case of Kirk Ferentz in his 27th year at Iowa — coach to also surprise from unranked territory, but there does seem to be something about that sweet spot that makes a team more primed to break out. Now, we combine all of the predictive factors from above into a single ranking, weighted by the importance of each sub-category: Based on past trends, we would expect USC to be most likely to rise from outside the top 25 to serious playoff contention by the end of the regular season, followed by Louisville, Auburn, Virginia Tech and a bunch of Big Ten and Big 12 schools. Not all of these teams jumped off the page in every category, but most were coming off a decent SRS season and/or had a subpar season by their standards. They're all in power conferences. The highest-ranked non-power candidate was Tulane at No. 27. Advertisement The odds are that at least a few of these teams — or teams like them a bit further down the ranking — will make the jump into the playoff conversation, as an average of 2.75 teams per year started unranked and finished 12th or higher in the pre-bowl AP poll each year in our sample. We've trended toward even more of that chaos in recent years; four teams have done that per season since 2021. So if you're thinking about this week's polls, remember that while the AP's preseason top 25 is stacked with the sport's most obvious playoff threats, history says the field won't be limited to just those hyped-up names. Every season brings a few gate-crashers from outside the group of teams we thought we knew to watch, and our list is full of schools that check the right boxes to be those spoilers in 2025. (Photo of Lincoln Riley: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images) Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle

Tottenham condemns racist abuse of Mathys Tel after UEFA Super Cup
Tottenham condemns racist abuse of Mathys Tel after UEFA Super Cup

San Francisco Chronicle​

time4 hours ago

  • San Francisco Chronicle​

Tottenham condemns racist abuse of Mathys Tel after UEFA Super Cup

LONDON (AP) — Tottenham has slammed the "cowards" who racially abused French forward Mathys Tel after the team's loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Super Cup after a penalty shootout. The 20-year-old Tel, who is Black, was one of two Tottenham players who failed to convert their penalties as they lost the shootout 4-3 to PSG after a 2-2 draw. 'We are disgusted at the racial abuse that Mathys Tel has received on social media following last night's UEFA Super Cup defeat," Tottenham said in a statement. 'Mathys showed bravery and courage to step forward and take a penalty, yet those who abuse him are nothing but cowards — hiding behind anonymous user names and profiles to spout their abhorrent views." Tottenham said the club will work with the authorities and social media platforms to take 'the strongest possible action against any individual we are able to identify.' 'We stand with you, Mathys,' Spurs added. Tel, who joined the team on a permanent basis from Bayern Munich in the offseason after a loan spell last season, went on as a substitute in the 79th minute when Tottenham was 2-0 ahead. He hit his shootout penalty wide. ___

Rowers revel in beach sprints in the run-up to LA's 2028 Olympics
Rowers revel in beach sprints in the run-up to LA's 2028 Olympics

San Francisco Chronicle​

time8 hours ago

  • San Francisco Chronicle​

Rowers revel in beach sprints in the run-up to LA's 2028 Olympics

LONG BEACH, Calif. (AP) — It's a beach run, a coastal row and a music party rolled into one, and it's about to become an Olympic event. On a sunny Southern California morning, nearly two dozen athletes gathered to try their hand at beach sprints at a camp run by USRowing in Long Beach, not far from where the inaugural Olympic races will be held in 2028. Many were long-time flatwater rowers who wanted to take a shot at something new. Others were already hooked on the quick-paced and unpredictable race format and have been training with an eye on LA28. Two at a time, athletes run to the waterline, hop in a boat, row a slalom course, then turn around and return to shore to jump out and dash across the sand to hit a finish-line buzzer — all in about three minutes. "You don't just have to be a good rower — you also have to be a good athlete, and what that means is you've got to be able to be dynamic and adapt to whatever Mother Nature throws at you," said Maurice Scott, a long-time rower from Philadelphia who moved to Long Beach to prepare for the Olympics. The next summer Olympics will be held in Los Angeles and nearby cities. Interest in beach sprints has risen since the International Olympic Committee announced its inclusion, especially since the games will no longer feature a lightweight rowing category popular among smaller athletes. Rowing officials developed the beach sprint format a little over a decade ago hoping to engage spectators in a sport that's otherwise removed from people watching from the shore. A standard 2,000 meter-flatwater race is typically only visible closer to the finish line. In beach sprints, athletes compete close to the crowds in a dynamic and much shorter race that fans can easily track from the sand. Guin Batten, chair of World Rowing's coastal commission, said the vision is to have a fun, lively event on the beach where spectators can listen to good music, be close to the action and follow their favorite athletes. The entire event runs just an hour. 'It's knockout. It's chaotic,' said Batten, an Olympic rower who helped develop the format. 'Until you cross a finish line, anyone can win that race.' Many traditional flatwater rowers accustomed to steady strokes on calm waterways have no interest in the ups and downs of wind and waves. But other long-time rowers are hooked. Christine Cavallo, a beach sprinter on the U.S. national team, said she loves the unpredictability of the waves, which can humble even the most incredible athletes. 'You could be the best rower in the world and get flipped by the wave," Cavallo said. Coastal rowing has long been popular throughout the world but different cultures have used different boats and rules. Part of the appeal of beach sprints is the boat has been standardized and is provided at competitions, which makes it easier for more athletes to try it. The first major international beach sprints competition was at the 2015 Mediterranean Beach Games in Italy. Head of the Charles, known for its yearly October flatwater regatta in Massachusetts, hosted its first beach sprints event in July. About 100 rowers, twice as many as expected, participated, said Brendan Mulvey, race director. Since the Olympic announcement, Tom Pattichis, British Rowing's head coach for beach sprints, said he now has athletes training full-time in the event. Meanwhile, Marc Oria, the USA Beach Sprint head coach, said camps in Massachusetts, New Jersey and Long Beach aim to bring the race to long-time rowers and others who haven't tried it. Athletes find it exhilarating because it requires them to be agile and adaptive as well as superb rowers, he said. 'It's growing exponentially in the last four years all around the world,' Oria said. 'Our goal for U.S. rowing is to create more events, more opportunities, and to create a good pipeline for 2028.' At the camp in Long Beach, competitors included a teacher, an Olympic rower, a marketing professional who began rowing a few weeks earlier and a high school senior. 'I tried it and I really loved it, so I came back,' said Bridgette Hanson, a 17-year-old rower from Arizona who raced in beach sprints for the first time this year in Florida. 'It requires a lot more brute force.' John Wojtkiewicz, coach of the Long Beach Coastal Team, called out to racers to help guide them through the course. He said he's eager to see how the Olympic venue is set up and hopes spectators can get a good view like they do at surfing events. 'What is great about the beach sprint — and this may have helped its development — is you can watch the entire race,' Wojtkiewicz said. "Anything can happen.'

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