China to kill AUKUS without firing a bullet? Trump's ‘America First' stand behind review of nuclear submarine deal with Australia
Trump
has launched a Pentagon-led review of the 2021
AUKUS
pact, which brings together
Australia
, the United Kingdom, and the United States in a multi-decade effort to counterbalance China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
This deal was signed under the
Biden Administration
, a commitment to give its allies the missing military edge in the form of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. This review marks the first serious reappraisal of the deal since its 2021 announcement and is being undertaken to find the perfect strategy to tackle China's military posturing in the Pacific and South China Sea.
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Officials say the review is to ensure the project aligns with Trump's 'America First' agenda and addresses concerns over resource limits in the
US Navy
. With the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) modernising rapidly and operating multiple nuclear submarines as well as aircraft carriers, the US forces are getting stretched.
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A defense official confirmed that the review will examine America's readiness, allied contributions, and the US industrial base.
Why is Trump having second thoughts?
Trump's team, led by Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, has questioned the submarine component, known as Pillar I, while supporting broader cooperation in intelligence and advanced technologies.
Colby warned that US
nuclear submarine
capacity may not be sufficient to both supply Australia and meet American needs in a hypothetical conflict on other fronts, such as around Taiwan.
This review is normal for a new administration (Trump) to evaluate key defense agreements.
Canberra has already committed around A$4 billion toward US production and $500 million upfront. But the review stresses that the US must hit production targets, about 2.33 submarines per year, before transferring vessels.
The
Australian Government
forecast suggests that this submarine program could cost a staggering US$235 billion over 30 years.
Trump's approach also uses AUKUS to pressure Australia to increase defence spending significantly, from 2% of GDP to roughly 3.5%.
Australia's Deputy PM Richard Marles said that AUKUS will stay on track. He called the review 'natural and understandable,' given the change in US leadership. He stressed that Australia has a 'plan' and 'is sticking to it.'
The Chinese reaction
China maintained its opposition to the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal as the Trump Administration reviewed it to align with its "
America First
" agenda. Beijing had earlier labeled the deal as driven by 'Cold War thinking' and accused the US, UK, and Australia of embarking on a 'path of error and danger.'
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After the news that the US is reviewing AUKUS, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a briefing on Thursday, June 12, 'China has made clear more than once its position on the so-called trilateral security partnership between the U.S., U.K., and Australia, designed to advance cooperation on nuclear submarines and other cutting-edge military technologies."
What is AUKUS and what was it meant to serve?
The AUKUS pact, short for Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, is a strategic security partnership announced in 2021. Its purpose is to strengthen military capabilities among these three countries and deter threats in the Indo-Pacific region, especially amid China's growing influence.
The deal, estimated to cost US$239 billion (or A$368 billion) over three decades, is structured around two main pillars.
Pillar I: Nuclear Submarines
Pillar I will focus on providing Australia with nuclear-powered attack submarines, marking a big leap forward from its current fleet of diesel-electric vessels. Only five countries, the US, Russia, China, France, the UK, and India operate nuclear-powered submarines.
Australia will build a nuclear submarine base that will be operational by 2027 just off Perth, for $1.7 billion. US and UK submarines will begin short-term rotational deployments to Western Australia by 2027. These deployments are meant to familiarise Australia with nuclear-powered technology and operations.
From 2032, Australia will purchase at least three second-hand Virginia-class submarines from the US, with the option to buy two more if needed.
The long-term vision is to create a new generation of nuclear-powered submarines, SSN-AUKUS. The UK and Australia will jointly design these submarines using British blueprints, but with integrated US technology. They will be constructed in both countries and serve both navies.
With this part of the plan, the Australian government officials hope to strengthen deterrence, build Australia's domestic defence industry, and deepen military interoperability among the three nations.
Pillar II: Advanced Capabilities and Intelligence Sharing
This part includes collaboration on artificial intelligence, undersea robotics, long-range hypersonic missiles, quantum technologies, cyber operations, and electronic warfare systems.
The arrangement expands on decades of deep intelligence sharing between the US and UK, now extended to Australia. It is designed to give the allies an edge in emerging technologies that are crucial for modern warfare.
Together, both pillars of AUKUS aim to reshape the Indo-Pacific security landscape and establish a long-term technological and strategic alignment framework between the three partner countries.
What lies ahead for Australia?
The
Pentagon
review is expected to wrap up within 30 days; however, no timeline is given. Its outcome could reshape AUKUS or prompt negotiations over defence spending and industrial commitments.
Australia may also consider a fall-back plan if the submarine deal is delayed or altered, though Marles has ruled out mid-course changes. London reiterates AUKUS's strategic value but supports revisiting its terms.
For Australia, the review brings uncertainty over its biggest defence project. AUKUS's future role in Indo-Pacific security could be in doubt if the review leads to cancellation or delay.
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