India mulls Indus Waters Treaty dispute exit, seeks legal view
India, having announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), is now seeking legal counsel on exiting the ongoing World Bank-mediated dispute resolution process over the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects in Jammu & Kashmir, ET has learnt.
#Pahalgam Terrorist Attack
India pulled the plug on IWT when Pakistanis are fighting over water
What makes this India-Pakistan standoff more dangerous than past ones
The problem of Pakistan couldn't have come at a worse time for D-St
According to sources, the Ministry of Jal Shakti has approached the Attorney General of India to explore legal mechanisms and options that would allow India to exit the resolution framework under the 1960 treaty, brokered by the World Bank.
A key question under consideration is whether India needs to formally notify the World Bank of its decision to suspend the IWT, or if communicating the decision solely to the 'Neutral Expert'-who is currently examining the India-Pakistan dispute-would suffice.
Since this is the only active
IWT dispute resolution
process, and the primary trigger behind India's call to revise the treaty, New Delhi may opt to notify just the Neutral Expert. Such a move would effectively halt the ongoing Kishanganga-Ratle mechanism and place the IWT in a state of suspension.
Neutral Expert: Michel Lino
The Neutral Expert in question is Michel Lino, President of the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD). He was appointed by the World Bank in 2022 under Article IX and Annexure F of the IWT, following objections raised by Pakistan over India's 330 MW Kishanganga project on the Jhelum in Gurez valley and the 850 MW Ratle project on the Chenab.
Lino conducted multiple meetings and site visits over two years, and in January 2025, declared he was "competent" to adjudicate the dispute-an outcome welcomed by India. However, with India now aiming to exit the process, the Neutral Expert mechanism may also be paused, despite India already responding to Pakistan's queries, with no new objections raised by Islamabad since.
India Cites 'Fundamental Change' Clause
India has started invoking international legal doctrines to justify its position. In a letter sent on April 24 to Pakistan, India cited a "fundamental change of circumstances" as the basis for suspending the IWT.
This argument leans on the principle of rebus sic stantibus under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which allows a country to withdraw from a treaty due to unforeseen, fundamental changes.
Water Resources Secretary Debashree Mukherjee's communication to her Pakistani counterpart, Syed Ali Murtaza, emphasized that India has repeatedly requested modifications to the IWT in light of significant demographic shifts, clean energy needs, and other altered assumptions underlying water sharing under the treaty.
Treaty Structure and Points of Contention
Since 2022, India has formally sought renegotiation of the IWT, triggered by the World Bank's handling of the Kishanganga-Ratle dispute. Article IX of the IWT lays out a multi-tiered resolution system-starting with the Permanent Indus Waters Commission, escalating to a Neutral Expert, and finally, a Court of Arbitration.
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